Europe · Eastern Europe
Bulgaria Demographics: Population Decline, Aging and Migration
Bulgaria ended 2025 with 6,423,207 residents. The population fell by 14,153 during the year, but the underlying natural decrease was much larger: 99,479 deaths compared with 50,241 live births produced a natural loss of 49,238 people, while positive net international migration of 35,085 offset most of that gap.
Main national data: Bulgaria National Statistical Institute, Population and Demographic Processes 2025 final data. EU age and fertility comparisons use Eurostat’s Demography of Europe 2026 edition.
Last updated: August 13, 2026
Core Demographic Indicators
Natural Decrease Is Much Larger Than the Headline Population Loss
Bulgaria’s 2025 population change is best understood as the balance of two movements in opposite directions. Deaths exceeded live births by 49,238, while international migration added a net 35,085 residents. The migration gain therefore offset about 71.3% of the natural decrease, leaving the population 14,153 lower at year-end.
| Population Component | 2025 Count | Rate or Change | Measure Type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live births | 50,241 | 7.8 per 1,000 | Annual demographic event | Bulgaria NSI |
| Deaths | 99,479 | 15.5 per 1,000 | Annual demographic event | Bulgaria NSI |
| Natural change | −49,238 | −7.7 per 1,000 | Live births minus deaths | Bulgaria NSI |
| Immigration | 44,640 | International migration flow | Bulgaria NSI | |
| Emigration | 9,555 | International migration flow | Bulgaria NSI | |
| Net international migration | +35,085 | +5.4 per 1,000 | Immigration minus emigration | Bulgaria NSI |
| Total population change | −14,153 | −0.22% | Year-end resident population change | Bulgaria NSI |
What Changed Bulgaria’s Population in 2025
Natural decrease, net international migration and the resulting population change
Bulgaria NSI, 2025 final demographic data. Natural change equals live births minus deaths; net international migration equals immigration minus emigration.
How Migration Changes the Total
- Deaths exceeded live births by 49,238 people in 2025.
- Net international migration added 35,085 people, equivalent to about 71.3% of the natural loss.
- Positive migration reduced the scale of population decline but did not reverse it: the final annual change remained −14,153.
- Bulgaria NSI describes the country’s demographic development after 1990 as a period of negative natural increase.
The Post-Census Population Series Continues to Move Downward
The most recent census-based sequence shows a much slower decline than Bulgaria’s natural decrease alone would imply. Year-end population fell from 6,447,710 in 2022 to 6,423,207 in 2025, a reduction of 24,503 people across those three years.
| Year | Population at 31 December | Annual Change | Annual Change % | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6,447,710 | −34,774 | −0.5% | Bulgaria NSI |
| 2023 | 6,445,481 | −2,229 | −0.03% | Bulgaria NSI |
| 2024 | 6,437,360 | −8,121 | −0.13% | Bulgaria NSI |
| 2025 | 6,423,207 | −14,153 | −0.22% | Bulgaria NSI |
Why the Census Boundary Matters
- Bulgaria NSI revised population estimates for 2012–2021 after the 2021 Population and Housing Census.
- The revision was introduced because current demographic statistics and the census produced different population totals, with unreported international migration identified as the main source of the gap.
- NSI also identifies a break in rates calculated for 2022 because a new census-based population estimate entered the denominator.
- Pre-revision population values should therefore not be joined mechanically to the current series and interpreted as pure annual demographic losses.
Older Residents Greatly Outnumber Children
At the end of 2025, Bulgaria had 1,557,851 residents aged 65 or older, equal to 24.3% of the population. Children under 15 numbered 891,674, or 13.9%. The remaining 3,973,682 residents were aged 15–64, a derived share of 61.9%.
| Age Group | Population | Share | Measure Type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 15 | 891,674 | 13.9% | Published count and share | Bulgaria NSI |
| 15–64 | 3,973,682 | 61.9% | Derived from published age totals | Bulgaria NSI |
| 65 and over | 1,557,851 | 24.3% | Published count and share | Bulgaria NSI |
Bulgaria’s Broad Age Structure in 2025
Share of the year-end resident population in three broad age groups
Bulgaria NSI, 31 December 2025. The 15–64 share is derived from the published total, under-15 and 65+ counts.
Age dependency: Bulgaria’s total age dependency ratio was 61.6% in 2025, meaning there were about 62 people under 15 or aged 65+ for every 100 people aged 15–64. The ratio ranged from 50.9% in Sofia city to 75.4% in Vidin.
The Working-Age Replacement Ratio Is Below 100
The demographic replacement coefficient compares people aged 15–19, who are approaching working age, with those aged 60–64, who are approaching exit from it. Bulgaria recorded 75 entrants for every 100 exits in 2025. The ratio was 99 in Sofia city, 96 in Sliven and 89 in Varna, but only 46 in Kardzhali, 49 in Smolyan and 55 in Silistra.
Bulgaria NSI reported a mean population age of 45.4 years at the end of 2025, with an urban mean of 44.6 and a rural mean of 47.7. Eurostat uses a different age statistic for EU comparison: on 1 January 2025 Bulgaria’s median age was 47.3 years, compared with an EU median of 44.9. Italy was higher at 49.1, while Bulgaria and Portugal both recorded 47.3.
Mean age and median age are not interchangeable. The NSI value of 45.4 years is the arithmetic mean at the end of 2025. Eurostat’s 47.3 years is the age dividing the population into two equally sized halves on 1 January 2025. The values do not represent a statistical contradiction.
Bulgaria Led the EU in 2024 Fertility, but Birth Counts Kept Falling
Fertility is one of the more unusual parts of Bulgaria’s current demographic profile. In Eurostat’s harmonised 2024 data, Bulgaria had a total fertility rate of 1.72 births per woman, the highest in the EU, while the EU rate was 1.34. Bulgaria’s national TFR then stood at 1.63 in 2025.
A comparatively high TFR does not guarantee a rising number of births. TFR is a rate based on age-specific fertility, whereas the annual birth total also depends on the number and age distribution of women exposed to childbearing. Bulgaria had 1,246,560 women aged 15–49 at the end of 2025, about 11,000 fewer than one year earlier.
| Year | Live Births | Annual Birth Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 57,197 | +1.1% | Bulgaria NSI |
| 2024 | 53,428 | −6.6% | Bulgaria NSI |
| 2025 | 50,241 | −6.0% | Bulgaria NSI |
Fertility and First-Birth Age in the EU Context
| Indicator | Bulgaria | EU | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate | 1.72 births per woman | 1.34 births per woman | 2024 | Eurostat |
| Mean age at first birth | 26.9 years | 29.9 years | 2024 | Eurostat |
National data for 2025 put the mean age at first birth at 27.5 years. The district range was wide: 22.1 years in Sliven and 30.8 in Sofia city. This regional spread means a single national fertility figure does not describe the timing of childbearing equally well across Bulgaria.
Why Fertility and Birth Counts Can Move Differently
- Bulgaria’s 2024 TFR of 1.72 was the highest harmonised value in the EU, but it remained below the broad 2.1 replacement-level benchmark.
- Live births fell from 57,197 in 2023 to 53,428 in 2024 and 50,241 in 2025.
- The population of women aged 15–49 fell to 1,246,560 by the end of 2025, about 11,000 fewer than one year earlier.
- TFR measures fertility intensity; total births are an absolute count and also reflect the size and age structure of the reproductive-age population.
Recent Immigration Includes Returning Bulgarians and Foreign Citizens
The 44,640 people recorded as immigrants in 2025 were not a single citizenship group. Bulgaria NSI defines the flow as including Bulgarian citizens returning to the country as well as citizens of other countries who received a permit or residence status. Bulgarian citizens accounted for 38.9% of immigrants, while 45.9% were citizens of non-EU countries and 15.2% were citizens of EU countries.
Nearly three quarters of immigrants were aged 15–64. Türkiye, Ukraine and Germany were the three largest origin countries in the 2025 flow. These figures describe annual migration movements; they do not measure Bulgaria’s ethnic composition, foreign-born population or total stock of foreign citizens.
| Dimension | Group | Share of 2025 Immigrants | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citizenship | Non-EU citizens | 45.9% | Share of annual immigration flow |
| Citizenship | Bulgarian citizens | 38.9% | Includes returning Bulgarian citizens |
| Citizenship | EU citizens | 15.2% | Citizens of other EU countries |
| Age | Age 15–64 | 72.9% | Working-age-range share of the flow |
| Origin | Türkiye | 25.1% | Largest reported origin in the flow |
| Origin | Ukraine | 18.5% | Second-largest reported origin |
| Origin | Germany | 9.1% | Third-largest reported origin |
Rural Bulgaria Is Older and Has a Much Larger Natural Decrease
National averages conceal a sharp urban-rural divide. Rural residents were about three years older on average than urban residents in 2025. The rural crude death rate was 20.6 per 1,000, compared with 13.6 in urban areas, and the rural natural decrease rate was more than twice the urban rate.
| Indicator | Urban Bulgaria | Rural Bulgaria | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 4,745,686 | 1,677,521 | 31 Dec 2025 |
| Population share | 73.9% | 26.1% | 31 Dec 2025 |
| Mean age | 44.6 years | 47.7 years | 31 Dec 2025 |
| Crude death rate | 13.6 per 1,000 | 20.6 per 1,000 | 2025 |
| Natural change rate | −5.8 per 1,000 | −12.9 per 1,000 | 2025 |
Only One of Bulgaria’s Six Statistical Regions Grew in 2025
Population decline is not distributed evenly across the country. Of Bulgaria’s six statistical regions, only Yugozapaden recorded population growth in 2025, rising by 0.15%. Severozapaden had the largest regional decline at −1.24%, followed by Severen tsentralen at −1.06%.
| Statistical Region | Population | National Share | Population Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severozapaden | 647,273 | 10.1% | −8,157 | −1.24% |
| Severen tsentralen | 666,224 | 10.4% | −7,107 | −1.06% |
| Severoiztochen | 826,624 | 12.9% | −118 | −0.01% |
| Yugoiztochen | 951,060 | 14.8% | −1,323 | −0.14% |
| Yugozapaden | 2,026,014 | 31.5% | +3,032 | +0.15% |
| Yuzhen tsentralen | 1,306,012 | 20.3% | −480 | −0.04% |
Population Change by Statistical Region, 2025
Annual percentage change in the six Bulgarian statistical regions
Bulgaria NSI, population by statistical region as of 31 December 2025.
Where Population Growth and Decline Are Concentrated
- Only five of Bulgaria’s 28 districts gained population in 2025: Kardzhali (+1.7%), Varna (+0.7%), Burgas (+0.7%), Sofia city (+0.6%) and Plovdiv (+0.4%).
- Smolyan recorded the largest district decline at −1.9%, followed by Montana at −1.6% and Vidin at −1.5%.
- Vidin also had the country’s highest 65+ share at 31.6%, the highest age dependency ratio at 75.4% and a natural change rate of −17.9 per 1,000.
- Sofia city had a 65+ share of 19.2% and a natural change rate of −2.2 per 1,000, showing how far regional age and natural-change profiles can diverge from the national average.
Depopulation Is Visible at Settlement Level
The spatial pattern extends below regions and districts. Bulgaria had 5,256 settlements at the end of 2025, and many were extremely small or uninhabited. Population was also concentrated in a limited number of large municipalities.
192 settlements had no population at the end of 2025.
1,280 settlements, or 24.4% of all settlements, had fewer than 50 residents but were not empty.
Only 8 municipalities had at least 100,000 residents, yet they contained 41.4% of Bulgaria’s population.
Data Sources and Methodology
The current national profile uses Bulgaria NSI’s final 2025 demographic release as the main dataset. Population counts refer to residents at 31 December, while annual birth, death and migration rates use the average annual population. Eurostat is used only where a harmonised EU comparison adds context. Recent population values are kept on the census-based NSI series rather than combining them with unrevised pre-Census-2021 releases.
Natural change is defined as live births minus deaths. Net international migration is immigration minus emigration. The displayed 71.3% migration offset is a derived calculation of 35,085 divided by the absolute natural decrease of 49,238. The 15–64 population of 3,973,682 is also derived from the published total population after subtracting the published under-15 and 65+ counts.
| Source | Release or Data Year | Used for | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria National Statistical Institute | Population and Demographic Processes 2025 final data | Current population, age structure, fertility, births, deaths, migration, urban-rural indicators, regions and settlements | Year-end resident population and annual demographic events |
| Bulgaria National Statistical Institute | 2022–2024 annual demographic releases | Recent population series and live-birth comparison | Year-end resident population and annual demographic events |
| Bulgaria National Statistical Institute | Post-census revision published 2024 | Interpretation of the 2012–2021 revision and census-related time-series break | Revised resident population methodology |
| Eurostat | Demography of Europe 2026 edition; 2024 and 1 Jan 2025 reference data | EU fertility, first-birth age and median-age comparisons | Harmonised EU demographic indicators |
Methodological Safety Note: Bulgaria NSI year-end resident population, Eurostat harmonised indicators and census counts are different statistical products and should not be treated as interchangeable. NSI revised the 2012–2021 population series after Census 2021 and identifies a break in rates calculated for 2022 because the population estimate used in the denominator changed. The 2025 NSI mean age of 45.4 years is not directly comparable as the same measure with Eurostat’s 47.3-year median age. Immigration and emigration on this page describe annual flows rather than stocks of foreign-born or foreign citizens. Values identified as derived are calculated only from published NSI figures and are rounded to the displayed precision.