Portugal Demographics

Births Remain Below Deaths

Natural decrease has persisted across the recent vital-statistics series. The deficit widened during the pandemic years, reached 45,220 in 2021, and later narrowed. Births rose by 3.7% in 2025, but deaths also rose, leaving a natural loss close to the 2024 level.

Fertility Has Stayed Far Below the Broad Replacement Benchmark

Portugal’s total fertility rate moved between 1.34 and 1.44 births per woman from 2017 through 2024. The rate measures the number of births a woman would have if current age-specific fertility rates applied throughout her reproductive years. It is not the same measure as the annual number of births.

The 2.1 comparison line is a broad replacement-level benchmark used for populations with low mortality. It is not a fixed national threshold for every year, and it does not account for migration.

The Composition of Births Has Changed

The national birth total was similar in 2015 and 2025, but the distribution by the mother’s place of birth changed. Births to foreign-born mothers rose from 16.4% to 35.3% of all live births, while births to Portugal-born mothers fell in count and share.

Place of birth is not citizenship. A foreign-born mother may be a Portuguese citizen, and a Portugal-born mother may hold another citizenship.

Ageing Persists Behind the New Population High

The end-2025 estimate places the median resident at 45.8 years. The old-age dependency ratio was 36.3, meaning there were about 36 residents aged 65 or older for every 100 residents aged 15–64. This is a population ratio, not a count of pensioners per employed person.

Women formed 51.1% of the resident population. The total sex balance does not describe the stronger female majority that generally appears at older ages. A full age-by-sex table from the revised 2025 population series was not included in the release used here, so no population pyramid is presented.

Portugal Is Both an Immigration and Emigration Country

Migration data answer different questions depending on whether they count a stock, an annual inflow, an annual outflow, citizenship, place of birth, or the balance between arrivals and departures. These measures should not be added together or treated as interchangeable.

Statistics Portugal estimated 1,597,539 foreign citizens at the end of 2025, equal to 14.0% of all residents. Greater Lisbon contained 546,419 of them, or 34.2% of the national foreign-citizen total. OECD data record 138,000 new long-term or permanent immigrants in 2024 and 61,000 Portuguese citizens moving to other OECD countries in 2023.

The 2024 Long-Term Inflow by Admission Category

Among the 138,000 new long-term or permanent immigrants recorded by the OECD, 44% were labour migrants, 28% moved under free-mobility arrangements, and 14% were family migrants, including accompanying family. About 9,000 permits were issued to tertiary-level international students. These categories describe an inflow and do not represent the full foreign-born or foreign-citizen population.

The Central Projection Falls Below 10 Million After 2050

Statistics Portugal’s 2025–2100 projections place demographic ageing and population decline at the centre of the central scenario. The projected population falls below 10 million in 2057, below 9 million in 2079, and reaches about 8.3 million in 2100.

The low and high scenarios already produce a wide range by 2050: 9.3 million to 11.4 million. The range reflects different assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration. These are scenario-based estimates, not guaranteed predictions.