European Union · EU-27 Demographic Analysis
EU Population Nears Its Peak: Why the European Union Is Expected to Shrink and Age
The European Union had an estimated 452.0 million residents on 1 January 2026. Eurostat’s baseline projection rises slightly to 453.3 million in 2029, then falls to 445.0 million in 2050 and 398.8 million in 2100. The near-term population total remains close to its maximum while natural decrease and population ageing are already well established.
Primary sources: Eurostat population statistics, EUROPOP2025 projections, fertility, mortality and age-structure datasets; European Commission Joint Research Centre Demography Report 2026.
Last updated: July 22, 2026
Core EU Demographic Indicators
The Population Peak Is Projected for 2029
EUROPOP2025 places the baseline population at 451.8 million in 2025 and projects a small rise of 1.5 million by 2029. The direction then changes: the projected total falls below the 2025 baseline before 2050 and reaches 398.8 million by 2100.
EU Population Projection, 2025–2100
Baseline population on 1 January, selected projection years
Source: Eurostat EUROPOP2025 baseline projection, released April 16, 2026.
| Year | Projected Population | Change From 2025 | Change From 2025 (%) | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 451.8 million | — | — | Projection baseline |
| 2029 | 453.3 million | +1.5 million | +0.3% | Projected peak |
| 2050 | 445.0 million | −6.8 million | −1.5% | Baseline projection |
| 2100 | 398.8 million | −53.0 million | −11.7% | Baseline projection |
Why “near its peak” is more precise
- The JRC Demography Report 2026 describes the EU population as being at its peak and cites 450.6 million at the start of 2025.
- Eurostat’s later demographic balance release estimates 452.0 million residents on 1 January 2026.
- EUROPOP2025 projects a further small rise to 453.3 million in 2029. The difference reflects reference dates, data revisions and the separation between observed estimates and projection baselines.
Current Population Growth Depends on Migration
The EU population increased during 2025 even though deaths exceeded births by 1.35 million. Positive net migration plus statistical adjustment reached 2.05 million and more than offset the natural decrease.
| Component | Value | Year | Definition | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Live births | 3.46 million | 2025 | Registered live births | Eurostat demographic balance |
| Deaths | 4.81 million | 2025 | Registered deaths | Eurostat demographic balance |
| Natural change | −1.35 million | 2025 | Live births minus deaths | Eurostat demographic balance |
| Net migration plus statistical adjustment | +2.05 million | 2025 | Total change minus natural change | Eurostat demographic balance |
| Total population change | +705,756 | 2025 | Change from January 1, 2025 to January 1, 2026 | Eurostat demographic balance |
Components of EU Population Change in 2025
Natural decrease, net migration plus statistical adjustment, and total change
Source: Eurostat, Population and population change statistics, data extracted July 6, 2026.
How migration changes the total
- Natural population change has been negative in the EU since 2012.
- In 2025, positive net migration exceeded natural decrease by about 700,000 people, producing a small increase in the total population.
- Eurostat’s annual balance measure is net migration plus statistical adjustment, not a direct subtraction of separately reported immigration and emigration flows.
Ageing Is Moving Faster Than the Population Total
On 1 January 2025, 22.0% of EU residents were aged 65 or older, compared with 14.4% aged 0–14. The median age reached 44.9 years, and the old-age dependency ratio stood at 34.5 people aged 65 or over per 100 people aged 15–64.
EU Broad Age Structure in 2025
Share of the resident population by broad age group
Source: Eurostat, Population structure and ageing. This is a broad age structure, not a population pyramid.
| Indicator | Value | Reference Date | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population aged 0–14 | 14.4% | 1 January 2025 | Share of resident population |
| Population aged 15–64 | 63.6% | 1 January 2025 | Share of resident population |
| Population aged 65+ | 22.0% | 1 January 2025 | Share of resident population |
| Population aged 80+ | 6.0% | 1 January 2025 | Share of resident population |
| Median age | 44.9 years | 1 January 2025 | Median age of resident population |
| Old-age dependency ratio | 34.5% | 1 January 2025 | Population aged 65+ per 100 people aged 15–64 |
The Working-Age Share Contracts Through 2100
The EUROPOP2025 baseline projects the population aged 20–64 to fall by 64.9 million between 2025 and 2100. Over the same period, the combined share aged 65 or over rises to about one-third of the EU population, with the fastest proportional increase concentrated among people aged 80 and over.
Projected EU Age Composition, 2025 and 2100
Rounded shares using the EUROPOP2025 projection age bands
Source: Eurostat EUROPOP2025. Rounded age-group shares may not total exactly 100%.
| Age Group | 2025 Share | 2100 Share | Percentage-Point Change | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–19 | 20.0% | 16.7% | −3.3 pp | Smaller share |
| 20–64 | 58.3% | 49.7% | −8.6 pp | Smaller share and lower population |
| 65–79 | 16.0% | 17.0% | +1.0 pp | Larger share |
| 80+ | 6.0% | 16.0% | +10.0 pp | Larger share |
Where the age balance shifts
- The median age is projected to rise from 44.9 years in 2025 to 51.5 years in 2100.
- The old-age dependency ratio using ages 15–64 as the working-age denominator rises from 34.4% in 2025 to 61.9% in 2100.
- The 80+ share is projected to gain 10 percentage points, from 6% to 16%.
Fertility Fell to 1.34 Births per Woman
The EU total fertility rate reached 1.34 in 2024, its lowest value in the available EU series beginning in 2001. The rate has moved downward since 2021, while annual live births fell from 4.09 million in 2021 to 3.55 million in 2024 and 3.46 million in the 2025 demographic balance.
EU Total Fertility Rate, Selected Years
Live births per woman under period fertility conditions
Source: Eurostat fertility statistics. The 2.1 replacement level is a broad benchmark in the absence of migration, not a fixed national threshold.
| Year | Total Fertility Rate | Series Position | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 1.43 | Earlier low | Eurostat |
| 2008 | 1.57 | Relative high | Eurostat |
| 2010 | 1.57 | Relative high | Eurostat |
| 2013 | 1.51 | Interim low | Eurostat |
| 2020 | 1.51 | Pre-rebound level | Eurostat |
| 2021 | 1.53 | Recent high | Eurostat |
| 2022 | 1.46 | Decline resumed | Eurostat |
| 2023 | 1.38 | New low at publication | Eurostat |
| 2024 | 1.34 | Lowest available EU value | Eurostat |
Life Expectancy Recovered to 81.5 Years
Life expectancy at birth reached 81.5 years in 2024, above the 2019 pre-pandemic value of 81.3 years. Female life expectancy was 84.1 years and male life expectancy was 78.9 years, a difference of 5.2 years.
EU Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex, 2024
Period life expectancy under 2024 mortality conditions
Source: Eurostat mortality and life expectancy statistics.
| Indicator | Value | Year | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Life expectancy at birth, both sexes | 81.5 years | 2024 | Period life expectancy |
| Life expectancy at birth, women | 84.1 years | 2024 | Period life expectancy |
| Life expectancy at birth, men | 78.9 years | 2024 | Period life expectancy |
| Female–male gap | 5.2 years | 2024 | Derived difference |
| Life expectancy at age 65 | 20.2 additional years | 2024 | Period life expectancy at age 65 |
Member States Are Following Different Population Paths
The EU total conceals different national balances. During 2025, all five large western and southern member states shown below recorded negative natural change and positive net migration. Migration offset the natural decrease in France, Spain and the Netherlands, but not in Germany or Italy.
| Member State | Natural Change | Net Migration | Population Direction in 2025 | Balance Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | Negative | Positive | Decrease | Migration did not offset natural decrease |
| France | Negative | Positive | Increase | Migration offset natural decrease |
| Italy | Negative | Positive | Decrease | Migration did not offset natural decrease |
| Spain | Negative | Positive | Increase | Migration offset natural decrease |
| Netherlands | Negative | Positive | Increase | Migration offset natural decrease |
Long-term projections also diverge. Germany is projected to decline from 83.6 million in 2025 to 74.7 million in 2100, while France moves from 68.8 million to 67.2 million. Spain is projected to rise slightly from 49.1 million to 49.8 million. Across the EU, 18 member states are projected to lose population by 2100 and 9 are projected to grow.
Population Decline Is Concentrated Unevenly Across Regions
National totals do not show the full territorial pattern. Eurostat’s 2025-based regional projections indicate that 70% of EU NUTS 3 regions could lose population by 2050. Ageing is also spreading across a larger share of the regional map.
| Regional Indicator | 2025 | 2050 Projection | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regions projected to lose population by 2050 | Not applicable | 70% | EU NUTS 3 regions |
| Regions with at least 25% of residents aged 65+ | 357 regions | 1,040 regions | About 30% in 2025; about 90% in 2050 |
| Average population share aged 65+ | 23.4% | 30.5% | Unweighted NUTS 3 regional average |
Labour Supply and Care Demand Move With the Age Structure
The JRC reports that around 20% of working-age people are outside the labour market, while the employment gap between women and men is about 10 percentage points.
About 8 million young people are not in education, employment or training, leaving part of the potential workforce unused.
The number of people needing long-term care support is expected to rise from 36 million to 48 million by 2070.
Positive net migration has been the source of EU population growth since natural change became negative in 2012.
Data Sources and Methodology
The page separates current resident-population estimates, annual demographic balance data and scenario-based projections. Values refer to different reference years because official population, fertility, mortality and projection releases follow separate schedules. Population changes and projection differences shown in the tables are calculated from published totals and rounded to match the precision of the source values.
| Source | Release or Data Year | Used For | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eurostat: Population and population change statistics | Data extracted July 6, 2026 | 2026 population estimate, 2025 births, deaths, natural change, migration balance and country direction | Resident-population estimate and annual demographic balance |
| Eurostat: EUROPOP2025 population projections | Released April 16, 2026 | 2029 peak, 2050 and 2100 population, projected age structure and selected country paths | Baseline projection scenario |
| Eurostat: Population structure and ageing | 1 January 2025 | Broad age structure, median age and old-age dependency ratio | Resident-population structure |
| Eurostat: Fertility statistics | 2024 data; extracted February 19, 2026 | Total fertility rate and fertility trend | Period total fertility rate and registered births |
| Eurostat: Mortality and life expectancy statistics | 2024 | Life expectancy at birth, sex gap and life expectancy at age 65 | Period life expectancy |
| European Commission JRC: Demographic transformation in the EU | July 14, 2026 | Care demand, labour participation indicators and interpretation of demographic pressures | Demographic report synthesis |
| Eurostat: Population projections at regional level | 2025–2050 projection | Regional population decline and regional ageing indicators | NUTS 3 baseline projection |
Methodological Safety Note: The 452.0 million figure is an estimated resident population for 1 January 2026. It should not be treated as the same measure as the EUROPOP2025 starting value of 451.8 million for 2025 or the 450.6 million figure used in the JRC report for the start of 2025. Eurostat’s net migration measure in the annual demographic balance includes statistical adjustment. Projection values are conditional scenarios based on fertility, mortality and migration assumptions, not guaranteed predictions. Current age shares use 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ groups, while the long-term projection module uses 0–19, 20–64 and 65+ groups; the two sets should not be compared as identical age classifications.