Asia · Comparative Fertility Analysis
Fertility Diverges Across Asia in 2025: South Korea Rises as Japan and Singapore Reach New Lows
Asia’s lowest-fertility societies did not move in the same direction in 2025. South Korea’s total fertility rate rose for a second year, Japan moved to another low, and Singapore recorded the largest annual decline among the three.
Primary sources: Statistics Korea, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, and the Singapore Department of Statistics.
Last updated: July 22, 2026
2025 Fertility Comparison
Three Countries Moved in Different Directions
South Korea still had the lowest fertility rate of the three, but it was the only country to report an annual rise. Singapore’s resident fertility rate fell by 0.10 births per woman, ten times the point decline recorded in Japan.
| Country | 2024 TFR | 2025 TFR | Point Change | Direction | Population Coverage | 2025 Data Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | 0.75 | 0.80 | +0.05 | Second consecutive annual rise | National vital-statistics series | Provisional annual value |
| Japan | 1.15 | 1.14 | −0.01 | New national low | Japanese nationals in Japan | Provisional annual value |
| Singapore | 0.97 | 0.87 | −0.10 | Lowest level recorded to date | Residents: citizens and permanent residents | Preliminary resident value |
What the comparison establishes
- South Korea’s rate increased by 0.05 births per woman, from 0.75 to 0.80.
- Japan’s rate declined by 0.01, extending the downward movement that resumed after 2015.
- Singapore’s resident rate declined by 0.10, the largest one-year movement in the table.
- The three values are period total fertility rates, but their population coverage is not identical.
The 2024–2025 Split
Total Fertility Rates in South Korea, Japan and Singapore
Annual period fertility rates, 2024 and 2025
Sources: Statistics Korea, Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, and Singapore Department of Statistics. Singapore reports a resident TFR.
South Korea’s Rise Extends Into a Second Year
South Korea’s period total fertility rate rose from 0.72 in 2023 to 0.75 in 2024 and 0.80 in 2025. The 2025 figure remained below one birth per woman, but the direction differed from Japan and Singapore.
The number of births increased from 238,317 in 2024 to a provisional 254,457 in 2025. The gain of 16,140 births was equivalent to 6.8%. Registered marriages rose from 222,412 to 240,370 during the same period, an increase of 8.1%.
The simultaneous movement in marriages and births does not establish a direct causal relationship. It identifies two national vital-statistics series that moved upward during the same year.
South Korea’s Recent Fertility Increase
Annual period total fertility rate, 2023–2025
Source: Statistics Korea. The 2025 value is provisional.
The South Korean Increase Was Concentrated in the Thirties
Age-specific fertility rose most among women aged 35–39. The rate for this group increased from 46.0 to 52.0 births per 1,000 women. The 30–34 rate increased from 70.4 to 73.2.
| Age Group | 2024 Rate | 2025 Rate | Change | Measure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 and younger | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | Births per 1,000 women |
| 25–29 | 20.7 | 21.3 | +0.6 | Births per 1,000 women |
| 30–34 | 70.4 | 73.2 | +2.8 | Births per 1,000 women |
| 35–39 | 46.0 | 52.0 | +6.0 | Births per 1,000 women |
| 40 and older | 4.0 | 4.4 | +0.4 | Births per 1,000 women |
Where the age pattern shifted
- The 35–39 rate produced the largest annual increase, rising by 6.0 births per 1,000 women.
- The 30–34 group retained the highest age-specific rate at 73.2.
- The rate for women aged 24 and younger remained unchanged at 2.2.
- The changes are derived by subtracting each official 2024 rate from its provisional 2025 value.
Japan Reached Another Fertility Low
Japan’s total fertility rate declined from 1.15 in 2024 to a provisional 1.14 in 2025. The movement was small in point terms, but it continued the decline that resumed in 2016.
Births among Japanese nationals in Japan fell from 686,173 to 671,236, a reduction of 14,937 or 2.2%. Births increased only among mothers aged 30–34; every other maternal age group recorded fewer births than in 2024.
The decline also appeared across birth order. First births fell by 3,318, second births by 8,381, and third-or-higher-order births by 3,238.
Deaths numbered 1,589,489. The resulting natural change was −918,253, meaning deaths exceeded births by more than 900,000 for the year.
Why Japan’s 2025 rate may be revised
- The published 1.14 rate is part of Japan’s provisional annual vital-statistics release.
- The final rate will be recalculated using population figures from the 2025 Population Census.
- The final value may therefore differ from the provisional figure even if the registered birth count changes only slightly.
Singapore Recorded the Largest Annual Decline
Singapore’s resident total fertility rate fell from 0.97 in 2024 to a preliminary 0.87 in 2025. Government releases described 0.87 as the lowest level recorded to date.
Total live births declined from 33,703 to 29,864, a reduction of 11.4%. Resident live births fell from 30,808 to 27,393, a decline of 11.1%.
The fertility measure applies to residents, defined as Singapore citizens and permanent residents. It does not use the entire population, which also includes non-residents. This differs from Japan’s national series, which covers vital events among Japanese nationals in Japan.
The annual figures establish the size and direction of the decline. They do not identify one cause for the movement from 0.97 to 0.87.
Birth Counts Reinforce the Divergence
Absolute birth totals should not be used to rank fertility across countries because population size and statistical coverage differ. The within-country changes show that South Korea moved upward while Japan and Singapore moved downward.
| Country or Series | 2024 Births | 2025 Births | Numeric Change | Percent Change | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | 238,317 | 254,457 | +16,140 | +6.8% | National provisional birth series |
| Japan | 686,173 | 671,236 | −14,937 | −2.2% | Japanese nationals in Japan |
| Singapore total live births | 33,703 | 29,864 | −3,839 | −11.4% | All registered live births |
| Singapore resident live births | 30,808 | 27,393 | −3,415 | −11.1% | Citizens and permanent residents |
Why a Two-Year Rise Is Not Yet a Fertility Reversal
Total fertility rate summarizes the age-specific fertility rates observed during one calendar year. It is not the final number of children born to a completed generation of women.
South Korea has reported two annual increases, from 0.72 to 0.75 and then to 0.80. Two observations do not establish a lasting change in the longer series.
Births delayed from an earlier period can raise a period fertility rate without producing an equal rise in completed lifetime fertility.
South Korea’s largest age-specific increase occurred among women aged 35–39, indicating that the age and timing of births matter when interpreting the national rise.
The Next Releases Will Test the Divergence
- South Korea’s final 2025 birth statistics are scheduled after the provisional annual series and may contain revised counts and rates.
- Japan’s final 2025 fertility rate will use the 2025 Population Census denominator and may differ from the provisional 1.14 value.
- A third consecutive increase in South Korea would provide more evidence of persistence than the current two-year movement.
- Singapore’s next annual resident fertility result will show whether 0.87 was a one-year fall or the start of a lower range.
- Age-specific rates and birth-order data will help distinguish changes in birth timing from broader changes across family sizes.
Data Sources and Methodology
The comparison uses official annual period fertility rates and registered birth statistics. Point changes were calculated as the 2025 rate minus the 2024 rate. Numeric birth changes were calculated from the published annual counts. Values were not interpolated, modelled or adjusted to create a common population definition.
Cross-country interpretation should focus on direction and annual movement. Japan’s series covers Japanese nationals in Japan, while Singapore’s TFR covers residents. South Korea’s 2025 figures are provisional and include adjustments used in its annual population-trends release.
| Source | Release or Data Year | Used For | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statistics Korea, December 2025 Population Trends | 2025 data · Released February 25, 2026 | South Korea TFR, births, marriages and age-specific fertility | Provisional annual vital statistics |
| Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 2025 Vital Statistics | 2025 data · Released June 2026 | Japan TFR, births, deaths, natural change, maternal age and birth order | Provisional annual vital statistics for Japanese nationals in Japan |
| Singapore Department of Statistics, Total Fertility Rate 2025 | 2025 data · Published May 6, 2026 | Singapore resident TFR for 2024 and 2025 | Resident period total fertility rate |
| Singapore Department of Statistics, Births and Fertility Latest Data | 2025 data · Updated June 30, 2026 | Total and resident live-birth counts and annual changes | Official registered birth statistics |
| Singapore National Population and Talent Division | 2026 statement using 2025 data | Confirmation that the 0.87 resident TFR was Singapore’s lowest to date | Official government statement |
Methodological Safety Note: The fertility rates are suitable for comparing annual direction, but they do not have fully identical population coverage. Singapore reports a resident TFR, Japan’s annual release covers Japanese nationals in Japan, and the South Korean and Japanese 2025 figures are provisional. A period TFR is sensitive to the timing of births and should not be treated as completed lifetime fertility. Birth-count differences between countries also reflect their unequal population sizes.
Questions About the 2025 Fertility Results
Did South Korea’s fertility rate recover in 2025?
The rate rose from 0.75 to 0.80, following an increase from 0.72 in 2023. The two-year rise is visible in the official series, but it is too short to establish a lasting demographic reversal.
Which of the three countries had the lowest fertility rate?
South Korea had the lowest 2025 rate at 0.80. Singapore followed at 0.87, while Japan’s provisional rate was 1.14.
Why is Singapore’s rate described as a resident TFR?
Singapore’s measure covers citizens and permanent residents. Non-residents are not included in the population used for the resident fertility calculation.
Are the three rates directly comparable?
They measure the same broad concept of annual period fertility, but their national population coverage differs. The most reliable comparison is the direction and size of each country’s change within its own official series.
Can Japan’s 1.14 rate change later?
Yes. Japan’s 2025 rate is provisional. The final calculation will use population figures from the 2025 Population Census, so the published rate may be revised.