Asia · Eastern Asia
Japan Demographics 2026: Population Decline, Aging, Fertility and Migration
Japan’s demographic profile is shaped by sustained population decline, an aging age structure, low fertility and migration that offsets only part of the natural decrease.
Primary official values use Statistics Bureau of Japan population estimates and census releases. Fertility, births, deaths and natural change use MHLW/e-Stat, including the 2025 provisional annual results published on June 3, 2026. Life expectancy uses the 2025 MHLW abridged life tables. Long-run mid-year series, projections, median age, density, urban estimates, world share and global rank use UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 medium variant as presented in the Worldometer tabulation.
Last updated: September 27, 2026
Core Demographic Indicators
2024–2025 Vital Statistics Change
686,173 → 671,236
Down 14,937, or 2.2%.
1.15 → 1.14
Down 0.01 births per woman.
1,605,378 → 1,589,489
Down 15,889, or 1.0%.
-919,205 → -918,253
The natural decrease narrowed by 952.
Data status: The 2025 figures shown here remain provisional. Final rates, including the total fertility rate, are scheduled for December 2026 after recalculation with the 2025 census population.
Detailed Demographic Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Provisional population estimate | 122,650,000 | September 1, 2026 | Statistics Bureau of Japan, September 2026 population estimate |
| 2025 census preliminary population | 123,049,524 | 2025 | Population Census 2025 preliminary counts, published 2026 |
| Annual population estimate | 123,802,000 | 2024 | Statistics Bureau of Japan, October 1 estimate |
| Year-on-year population change | -540,000 people, -0.44% | September 1, 2026 | Statistics Bureau of Japan, September 2026 population estimate |
| Male population | 60,233,000 | 2024 | Statistics Bureau of Japan |
| Female population | 63,569,000 | 2024 | Statistics Bureau of Japan |
| Population aged 0-14 | 13,291,000, 10.8% | April 1, 2026 | Statistics Bureau of Japan, final monthly estimate |
| Population aged 15-64 | 73,336,000, 59.7% | April 1, 2026 | Statistics Bureau of Japan, final monthly estimate |
| Population aged 65+ | 36,211,000, 29.5% | April 1, 2026 | Statistics Bureau of Japan, final monthly estimate |
| Median age | 50.2 years | 2026 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| Total fertility rate | 1.14 births per woman | 2025 provisional | MHLW Vital Statistics, published June 3, 2026 |
| Live births | 671,236 | 2025 provisional | MHLW Vital Statistics, published June 3, 2026 |
| Deaths | 1,589,489 | 2025 provisional | MHLW Vital Statistics, published June 3, 2026 |
| Natural change | -918,253 | 2025 provisional | MHLW Vital Statistics, published June 3, 2026 |
| Life expectancy at birth, men | 81.35 years | 2025 | MHLW Abridged Life Tables |
| Life expectancy at birth, women | 87.33 years | 2025 | MHLW Abridged Life Tables |
| Urban population share | 93.35% | 2026 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| Urban population | 114,292,213 | 2026 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| Population density | 336 people per km² | 2026 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant tabulation |
| Share of world population | 1.47% | 2026 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant tabulation |
| Global population rank | 12 | 2026 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant tabulation |
Table analysis
- The September 2026 provisional estimate places Japan at 122.65 million, down 540,000 from a year earlier.
- The September 1, 2026 estimate is 0.44% below the same date a year earlier.
- The April 2026 final estimate places 29.5% of the population at age 65 or older.
- MHLW’s 2025 provisional results record 671,236 births and 1,589,489 deaths, producing a natural change of -918,253.
- Births declined for the tenth consecutive year, while natural change remained negative for the nineteenth consecutive year.
- Source types differ: official annual estimates, census preliminary counts, modelled mid-year estimates and projections are not interchangeable.
Recent Monthly Population Estimates
The Statistics Bureau publishes a provisional estimate for the first day of each month. The latest release places Japan’s total population at 122.65 million on September 1, 2026.
| Reference date | Population | Data status | Release date |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | 122.81 million | Provisional estimate | May 20, 2026 |
| June 1, 2026 | 122.85 million | Provisional estimate | June 19, 2026 |
| July 1, 2026 | 122.93 million | Provisional estimate | July 21, 2026 |
| August 1, 2026 | 122.68 million | Provisional estimate | August 20, 2026 |
| September 1, 2026 | 122.65 million | Provisional estimate | September 24, 2026 |
Table analysis
- The latest provisional estimate is 122.65 million as of September 1, 2026.
- The August 1 estimate of 122.68 million remains in the table as an earlier monthly release.
- Monthly provisional estimates are finalized later as the Statistics Bureau updates the underlying source data.
Population History and Population Density
| Year | Population | Yearly % change | Yearly change | Net migration | Median age | Fertility rate | Density | Urban pop % | Urban population | World share | Global rank | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1955 | 92,425,478 | 1.35% | 1,196,440 | -95,975 | 22.7 | 2.35 | 254 | 56.3% | 52,005,319 | 3.37% | 5 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 1960 | 96,399,754 | 0.85% | 794,855 | -150,371 | 24.7 | 1.98 | 264 | 61.5% | 59,269,408 | 3.20% | 5 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 1965 | 100,916,019 | 0.92% | 903,253 | -50,667 | 26.6 | 2.09 | 277 | 66.2% | 66,812,422 | 3.03% | 6 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 1970 | 106,712,368 | 1.12% | 1,159,270 | 33,731 | 28.3 | 2.04 | 293 | 70.7% | 75,417,163 | 2.89% | 6 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 1975 | 113,321,196 | 1.21% | 1,321,766 | 107 | 29.7 | 1.92 | 311 | 75.1% | 85,121,987 | 2.78% | 6 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 1980 | 118,358,756 | 0.87% | 1,007,512 | -92,314 | 31.7 | 1.74 | 325 | 75.8% | 89,755,553 | 2.66% | 7 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 1985 | 120,832,163 | 0.41% | 494,681 | -141,323 | 34.5 | 1.74 | 331 | 77.4% | 93,507,944 | 2.48% | 7 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 1990 | 123,399,765 | 0.42% | 513,520 | 124,582 | 36.9 | 1.51 | 338 | 78.0% | 96,298,507 | 2.32% | 7 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 1995 | 125,672,665 | 0.37% | 454,580 | 87,714 | 39.0 | 1.41 | 345 | 78.5% | 98,593,178 | 2.18% | 8 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 2000 | 127,027,789 | 0.21% | 271,025 | 23,468 | 40.8 | 1.35 | 348 | 79.0% | 100,303,716 | 2.06% | 9 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 2005 | 127,913,330 | 0.14% | 177,108 | 113,017 | 42.6 | 1.25 | 351 | 86.3% | 110,340,709 | 1.94% | 10 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 2010 | 128,185,275 | 0.04% | 54,389 | 131,860 | 44.2 | 1.36 | 352 | 91.1% | 116,741,034 | 1.83% | 10 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 2015 | 127,275,872 | -0.14% | -181,881 | 168,896 | 45.8 | 1.42 | 349 | 91.9% | 116,944,428 | 1.70% | 10 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 2020 | 126,304,543 | -0.15% | -194,266 | 42,001 | 47.7 | 1.30 | 346 | 91.9% | 116,099,672 | 1.60% | 11 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 2022 | 124,997,578 | -0.52% | -653,483 | 175,003 | 48.5 | 1.26 | 343 | 92.5% | 115,583,843 | 1.56% | 12 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 2023 | 124,370,947 | -0.50% | -626,631 | 175,003 | 49.0 | 1.21 | 341 | 92.7% | 115,292,289 | 1.54% | 12 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 2024 | 123,753,041 | -0.50% | -617,906 | 153,357 | 49.4 | 1.22 | 339 | 92.9% | 114,979,260 | 1.52% | 12 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 2025 | 123,103,479 | -0.52% | -649,562 | 140,579 | 49.8 | 1.23 | 338 | 93.1% | 114,645,589 | 1.50% | 12 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
| 2026 | 122,427,731 | -0.55% | -675,748 | 128,619 | 50.2 | 1.23 | 336 | 93.4% | 114,292,213 | 1.47% | 12 | UN WPP 2024 medium variant |
Table analysis
- The UN WPP mid-year series places Japan near its recent peak in 2010 at 128.185 million, then lower at 122.428 million in 2026.
- Yearly change turns negative in the displayed series after 2010 and reaches -675,748 in 2026.
- The median age rises from 22.7 years in 1955 to 50.2 years in 2026.
- Fertility falls from 2.35 in 1955 to 1.23 in 2026 in the UN WPP medium-variant tabulation.
- Urban population share rises from 56.3% in 1955 to 93.4% in 2026.
Population Trend
Japan Population Trend
Mid-year population estimates and 2026 medium-variant estimate
Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 medium variant, as presented in the Worldometer tabulation. Historical and estimate values are shown separately from projection values below.
Trend analysis
- The displayed series rises from 92.4 million in 1955 to 128.2 million in 2010.
- By 2026, the UN WPP medium-variant estimate is 122.4 million, below the 2010 level.
- The population path has shifted from postwar expansion to sustained decline in the displayed mid-year series.
Population Growth Rate
Annual Population Change Rate
Selected years from the UN WPP medium-variant tabulation
Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 medium variant, as presented in the Worldometer tabulation. Values are yearly percentage change estimates.
Chart analysis
- The displayed growth rate is positive in the earlier part of the series and close to zero by 2010.
- The selected UN WPP values move below zero after 2010.
- The 2026 value is -0.55%, the lowest point in the displayed selection.
Broad Age Structure
Japan Age Structure
Official broad age groups, April 1, 2026
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Population Estimates as of April 1, 2026 (final).
| Age group | Population | Share | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-14 | 13,291,000 | 10.8% | April 1, 2026 | Statistics Bureau of Japan |
| 15-64 | 73,336,000 | 59.7% | April 1, 2026 | Statistics Bureau of Japan |
| 65+ | 36,211,000 | 29.5% | April 1, 2026 | Statistics Bureau of Japan |
Age-sex analysis
- The April 2026 final estimate places 36.211 million people in the 65+ group.
- The 65+ share, 29.5%, is more than double the 0-14 share of 10.8%.
- The 15-64 group remains the largest broad group at 73.336 million.
Male and Female Population Balance
| Year | Male | Female | Total | Male share | Female share | Sex ratio | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 60,233,000 | 63,569,000 | 123,802,000 | 48.65% | 51.35% | 94.75 males per 100 females | Statistics Bureau of Japan; shares and sex ratio calculated from official counts |
Table analysis
- Japan had 60.233 million males and 63.569 million females in the official October 2024 estimate.
- The female population exceeds the male population by 3.336 million.
- The calculated sex ratio is 94.75 males per 100 females.
- The sex-ratio calculation uses total male and female counts only; it does not replace detailed age-by-sex analysis.
Reference dates: The broad age groups above use the April 1, 2026 final population estimate. The male and female totals below use the October 1, 2024 annual estimate.
Fertility
Japan Fertility Rate
2025 provisional total fertility rate, with a 2.1 demographic reference
Source: MHLW Vital Statistics for Japan, 2025 provisional annual results. The 2.1 value is shown as a demographic reference.
Chart analysis
- Japan’s provisional 2025 total fertility rate is 1.14 births per woman, the lowest in the official series.
Life Expectancy by Sex
Life Expectancy at Birth
Men and women, 2025 abridged life tables
Source: MHLW Abridged Life Tables for Japan, 2025. Values are life expectancy at birth.
Chart analysis
- Female life expectancy at birth is 87.33 years.
- Male life expectancy at birth is 81.35 years.
- The female-male gap is 5.98 years in 2025.
Births, Deaths and Natural Change
Vital Statistics Balance
Live births, deaths and natural change
Source: MHLW Vital Statistics. The 2023 and 2024 values are final; the 2025 values are provisional and were published on June 3, 2026.
| Year | Live births | Deaths | Natural change | Fertility rate | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 727,288 | 1,576,016 | -840,728 | 1.20 | Final | MHLW Vital Statistics |
| 2024 | 686,173 | 1,605,378 | -919,205 | 1.15 | Final | MHLW Vital Statistics |
| 2025 | 671,236 | 1,589,489 | -918,253 | 1.14 | Provisional | MHLW Vital Statistics, published June 3, 2026 |
Data analysis
- Live births fell from 686,173 in 2024 to a provisional 671,236 in 2025, a decrease of 14,937 or 2.2%.
- The provisional total fertility rate fell from 1.15 to 1.14, the lowest value in the official series.
- Deaths declined from 1,605,378 to 1,589,489, the first annual decrease in five years.
- The natural decrease narrowed from -919,205 to -918,253, but remained negative for the nineteenth consecutive year.
- Births declined for the tenth consecutive year.
Population Projection
Japan Population Projection
UN WPP 2024 medium variant, selected years
Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 medium variant, as presented in the Worldometer tabulation. Values are scenario-based estimates.
| Year | Projected population | Yearly % change | Yearly change | Net migration assumption | Median age | Fertility rate | Density | Urban pop % | Urban population | Scenario | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 119,584,121 | -0.58% | -703,872 | 123,993 | 51.5 | 1.26 | 328 | 94.3% | 112,710,068 | Medium variant | UN WPP 2024 |
| 2035 | 115,876,149 | -0.63% | -741,594 | 116,871 | 52.5 | 1.29 | 318 | 95.3% | 110,450,118 | Medium variant | UN WPP 2024 |
| 2040 | 112,158,303 | -0.65% | -743,569 | 118,186 | 53.1 | 1.31 | 308 | 96.3% | 107,981,843 | Medium variant | UN WPP 2024 |
| 2045 | 108,551,995 | -0.65% | -721,262 | 113,424 | 53.0 | 1.33 | 298 | 97.2% | 105,471,938 | Medium variant | UN WPP 2024 |
| 2050 | 105,123,167 | -0.64% | -685,766 | 119,363 | 52.8 | 1.35 | 288 | 98.0% | 103,038,909 | Medium variant | UN WPP 2024 |
Projection analysis
- The UN WPP medium variant projects Japan at 119.6 million in 2030.
- The same scenario projects 105.1 million in 2050.
- The projected median age is above 50 years throughout the displayed projection period.
Largest Urban Areas
| Rank | Urban area | Population | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tokyo | 33,412,512 | Worldometer urban-area tabulation |
| 2 | Osaka | 12,964,145 | Worldometer urban-area tabulation |
| 3 | Nagoya | 7,146,160 | Worldometer urban-area tabulation |
| 4 | Fukuoka | 2,225,078 | Worldometer urban-area tabulation |
| 5 | Sapporo | 1,964,519 | Worldometer urban-area tabulation |
| 6 | Sendai | 1,256,440 | Worldometer urban-area tabulation |
| 7 | Kitakyushu | 1,206,731 | Worldometer urban-area tabulation |
| 8 | Hiroshima | 1,185,788 | Worldometer urban-area tabulation |
| 9 | Naha | 1,060,017 | Worldometer urban-area tabulation |
| 10 | Nara | 993,952 | Worldometer urban-area tabulation |
Table analysis
- Tokyo is the largest listed urban area at 33.4 million.
- Osaka and Nagoya are the next two largest listed urban areas, with 13.0 million and 7.1 million.
- Urban-area definitions can differ from municipal boundaries; the table should not be read as city-proper population.
Demographic Overview
The Statistics Bureau estimates Japan at 122.65 million on September 1, 2026, down 540,000 from a year earlier.
The April 2026 final estimate places 36.211 million people at age 65+ and 13.291 million at ages 0-14.
The provisional 2025 total fertility rate was 1.14 births per woman, the lowest value in the official series.
Deaths exceeded births by 918,253 in the 2025 provisional results. The natural balance remained negative for the nineteenth consecutive year.
The UN WPP tabulation estimates the 2026 urban population share at 93.35%, with 114.292 million people in urban areas.
The UN WPP 2024 medium variant projects Japan below 120 million by 2030 and near 105 million by 2050.
Data Sources and Methodology
| Source | Year or release | Used for |
|---|---|---|
| Statistics Bureau of Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications | October 1, 2024 annual estimate; April 1, 2026 final monthly estimate | Male/female totals and official broad age groups. |
| Statistics Bureau of Japan, latest Population Estimates release | September 1, 2026 provisional estimate · released September 24, 2026 | Current population card, year-on-year change, detailed indicator row and recent monthly population table. |
| Population Census 2025 preliminary counts | Survey date October 1, 2025; published May 29, 2026 | Preliminary census population row and source-year caution. |
| MHLW / e-Stat Vital Statistics | 2023 and 2024 final data; 2025 provisional results published June 3, 2026 | Live births, deaths, natural change, total fertility rate and the 2024–2025 comparison. |
| MHLW Abridged Life Tables | 2025 · published July 24, 2026 | Male and female life expectancy at birth. |
| UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 medium variant, Worldometer tabulation | 1955-2050 selected years | Long-run mid-year population, growth rate, median age, fertility estimates, density, urban share, urban population, net migration, world share, rank and projection tables. |
| Worldometer urban-area tabulation | Urban-area estimates | Largest urban areas table. Urban-area boundaries may differ from municipal boundaries. |
Method note
- Official Statistics Bureau estimates are used for Japan’s current population and broad age structure.
- UN WPP values are used where a long, comparable mid-year series or projection path is needed.
- MHLW data is used for births, deaths, fertility and life expectancy because these indicators come from national vital-statistics and life-table systems.
Definitions Used on This Page
| Indicator | Definition | Unit | Source note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population | Resident estimate, preliminary count or mid-year estimate depending on the table. | People | Source and year are shown in each row. |
| Yearly change | Estimated change from the previous year in the UN WPP tabulation. | People or percent | Used in the long-run population table. |
| Net migration | Estimated net movement across borders during the relevant period. | People | UN WPP estimate; not the same as immigration admissions. |
| Fertility rate | Total fertility rate, births per woman. | Births per woman | MHLW 2025 provisional value used for the current official fertility card; UN WPP values used in the long series. |
| Urban population | Population classified as urban under the source dataset. | People or percent | Urban definitions can differ across datasets and boundaries. |
| Projection | Scenario-based future population estimate. | People | UN WPP 2024 medium variant; not an observed count. |
Methodological Safety Note
Methodological Safety Note: Japan demographic values can differ by source because resident estimates, preliminary census counts, mid-year model estimates and projections use different reference points. Statistics Bureau values are used for current resident population and age structure, UN WPP for the long-run international series and projections, and MHLW for vital statistics and life expectancy. The 2025 vital-statistics figures remain provisional. Net migration and urban population follow their source definitions.
Japan Demographics FAQ
What is Japan’s population?
The Statistics Bureau provisional population estimate shows 122.65 million as of September 1, 2026. The preliminary 2025 census count was 123,049,524 as of October 1, 2025.
Is Japan’s population growing?
No. The September 1, 2026 provisional estimate is 540,000 people, or 0.44%, below the same date a year earlier.
How old is Japan’s population?
The April 1, 2026 final estimate places 29.5% of the population at age 65 or older. The UN WPP 2026 medium-variant tabulation gives a median age of 50.2 years.
How many births did Japan record in 2025?
MHLW’s provisional annual results record 671,236 births in 2025, the lowest annual total in the official series and the tenth consecutive yearly decline.
What is Japan’s fertility rate?
MHLW Vital Statistics report a provisional total fertility rate of 1.14 births per woman in 2025. Final rates are scheduled for December 2026.