Northern Africa · Maghreb
Tunisia Demographics: Fertility Decline, Aging and Population Change
Tunisia counted 11,972,169 residents in the 2024 census. Average annual growth slowed to 0.87% during 2014–2024, while the population aged 60 and older rose to 16.9%, fertility fell below the broad replacement benchmark, and recorded emigration more than doubled between the two latest five-year census windows.
Main data: Tunisia National Institute of Statistics, RGPH 2024 and the demographic, older-persons, and migration thematic releases issued in 2025. United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 is used only for the projection direction.
Core Demographic Indicators
Population Growth Has Slowed Across Three Consecutive Census Periods
Tunisia added 989,692 residents between the 2014 and 2024 censuses. The population continued to rise, but the intercensal growth rate fell from 2.35% a year in 1984–1994 to 1.21% in 1994–2004, 1.04% in 2004–2014, and 0.87% in 2014–2024.
The long census series also shows why a fertility rate below replacement does not produce an immediate population decline. Large cohorts born during earlier high-fertility decades remain in the adult population, so population momentum can sustain growth after births per woman have fallen.
| Census year | Population | Annual growth since previous census | Measure type | Institution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1921 | 2.094 million | — | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 1926 | 2.160 million | — | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 1931 | 2.411 million | — | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 1936 | 2.608 million | — | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 1946 | 3.231 million | — | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 1956 | 3.783 million | — | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 1966 | 4.533 million | 1.83% | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 1975 | 5.588 million | 2.11% | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 1984 | 6.966 million | 2.23% | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 1994 | 8.785 million | 2.35% | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 2004 | 9.911 million | 1.21% | Census count, rounded as published | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 2014 | 10,982,477 | 1.04% | Census count | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 2024 | 11,972,169 | 0.87% | Census count | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
Why the Growth Curve Is Flattening
- The 2014–2024 increase was 989,692 residents, compared with faster proportional gains in earlier census intervals.
- The 2014–2024 annual growth rate was below 1%.
- Fewer births are narrowing younger cohorts, while population momentum still keeps the national total above its previous census level.
Tunisia Census Population, 1921–2024
The series rises throughout the period, with a visibly flatter slope after 2000.
Data: Tunisia National Institute of Statistics, RGPH 2024. Early census values are rounded as published.
The Age Structure Has Shifted Away from Childhood
The narrowing base of Tunisia’s age distribution is visible across successive censuses. Children aged 0–4 accounted for about 19% of the population in 1966 and 5.9% in 2024. The share aged 60 and older moved in the opposite direction, rising from about 6% to 16.9%.
The 15–59 group expanded for several decades and reached about 65% in 2014. Its share then fell to 60.3% in 2024 as larger adult cohorts moved toward older ages and smaller cohorts entered working age.
| Census year | Aged 0–4 | Aged 5–14 | Aged 15–59 | Aged 60+ | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | 19% | 28% | 48% | 6% | Rounded census shares |
| 1975 | 16% | 28% | 50% | 6% | Rounded census shares |
| 1984 | 15% | 25% | 54% | 7% | Rounded census shares |
| 1994 | 11% | 24% | 57% | 8% | Rounded census shares |
| 2004 | 8% | 19% | 64% | 9% | Rounded census shares |
| 2014 | 9% | 15% | 65% | 12% | Rounded census shares |
| 2024 | 5.9% | 17.0% | 60.3% | 16.9% | Census shares |
How the Age Balance Shifted
- The 0–4 share fell by about 13 percentage points between 1966 and 2024.
- The 60-plus share rose by about 11 percentage points over the same interval.
- The table uses broad age groups. It is not a full population pyramid because it does not contain five-year age groups by sex.
Broad Age Structure Across Seven Censuses
The youngest group contracts while the 60-plus group occupies a larger part of the population.
Data: Tunisia National Institute of Statistics, RGPH 2024. Some historical shares are rounded and may not sum to exactly 100%.
Fertility Fell Below Replacement Before Population Growth Stalled
Tunisia’s total fertility rate was 1.7 births per woman in 2022, below the broad replacement-level benchmark of about 2.1. The rate and the census population refer to different years and measures: fertility is derived from registered births, while the 2024 population is a census count.
Birth registrations show a faster decline after 2015. The drop widened from about 3,000 births between 2015 and 2016 to 21,707 between 2019 and 2020. During 2020–2024, the average annual reduction was about 13,000 births.
Population momentum: A population can continue growing after fertility falls below replacement because earlier large birth cohorts remain in reproductive and working ages. As those cohorts age and are followed by smaller generations, the momentum weakens.
| Period | Reported change in births | Reporting basis | Institution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015–2016 | About −3,000 | Change over the interval | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 2016–2019 | About −7,800 per year | Average annual change | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 2019–2020 | −21,707 | Change over the interval | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
| 2020–2024 | About −13,000 per year | Average annual change | Tunisia National Institute of Statistics |
Later First Marriage Occurs Alongside Lower Fertility
The estimated mean age at first marriage rose from 27.1 to 35.3 years for men between 1966 and 2024. For women, it rose from 20.9 to 28.9 years. This shift shortens the period between marriage and the end of reproductive ages for many couples, but the census series alone does not isolate its effect from employment, housing, education, or family-size preferences.
| Census year | Men | Women | Difference | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | 27.1 years | 20.9 years | 6.2 years | Estimated mean age at first marriage |
| 1975 | 27.2 years | 22.6 years | 4.6 years | Estimated mean age at first marriage |
| 1984 | 28.1 years | 24.3 years | 3.8 years | Estimated mean age at first marriage |
| 1994 | 30.3 years | 26.6 years | 3.7 years | Estimated mean age at first marriage |
| 2004 | 32.7 years | 29.1 years | 3.6 years | Estimated mean age at first marriage |
| 2014 | 33.0 years | 28.6 years | 4.4 years | Estimated mean age at first marriage |
| 2024 | 35.3 years | 28.9 years | 6.4 years | Estimated mean age at first marriage |
The 60-Plus Population Reached 2.02 Million
The 2024 census counted 2,020,772 residents aged 60 or older. They represented 16.9% of the population, up from 11.7% in 2014. Women accounted for 52.04% of the 60-plus group and men for 47.96%.
The aging index rose to 73.9 in 2024, meaning there were nearly 74 people aged 60 or older for every 100 people younger than 15. The old-age dependency ratio reached 28.0 people aged 60 or older per 100 people aged 15–59.
| Census year | Aging index | Old-age dependency ratio | Definitions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | 12.0 | 11.6% | Aged 60+ relative to under 15 and aged 15–59 |
| 1975 | 13.3 | 11.6% | Aged 60+ relative to under 15 and aged 15–59 |
| 1984 | 16.8 | 12.4% | Aged 60+ relative to under 15 and aged 15–59 |
| 1994 | 23.0 | 14.6% | Aged 60+ relative to under 15 and aged 15–59 |
| 2004 | 34.8 | 14.5% | Aged 60+ relative to under 15 and aged 15–59 |
| 2014 | 49.2 | 18.1% | Aged 60+ relative to under 15 and aged 15–59 |
| 2024 | 73.9 | 28.0% | Aged 60+ relative to under 15 and aged 15–59 |
Aging Index and Old-Age Dependency, 1966–2024
Both measures rise, with the steepest change occurring after 2014.
Data: Tunisia National Institute of Statistics. The national definition uses age 60 as the older-age threshold.
Aging Is More Advanced in the Northwest
The national 60-plus share conceals a wide governorate range. Le Kef recorded 22.31%, while Kasserine recorded 13.58%. High older-age shares in Le Kef, Jendouba, Béja, and Siliana occur alongside long-running youth and working-age out-migration from parts of the northwest.
| Governorate | Population aged 60+ | Census year | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Kef | 22.31% | 2024 | Share of governorate population |
| Jendouba | 21.87% | 2024 | Share of governorate population |
| Béja | 20.59% | 2024 | Share of governorate population |
| Siliana | 19.72% | 2024 | Share of governorate population |
| Tunis | 19.66% | 2024 | Share of governorate population |
| Sousse | 14.81% | 2024 | Share of governorate population |
| Monastir | 14.36% | 2024 | Share of governorate population |
| Kasserine | 13.58% | 2024 | Share of governorate population |
Emigration More Than Doubled Between the Two Latest Five-Year Windows
The census migration analysis identified 156,497 Tunisian emigrants during 2019–2024, compared with 65,927 during 2009–2014. The later total was 2.37 times the earlier count.
Return migration and non-Tunisian immigration offset only part of that outflow. During 2019–2024, 20,703 Tunisians returned from abroad and 14,553 non-Tunisian immigrants entered the country. These are period flows, not counts of all Tunisians abroad or all foreign residents living in Tunisia.
| Flow | Period | People | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisian emigrants | 2009–2014 | 65,927 | Intercensal emigration flow |
| Tunisian emigrants | 2019–2024 | 156,497 | Intercensal emigration flow |
| Tunisian return migrants | 2019–2024 | 20,703 | Return migration flow |
| Non-Tunisian immigrants | 2019–2024 | 14,553 | Immigration flow |
| All recorded entrants | 2019–2024 | 35,256 | Return migrants plus non-Tunisian immigrants |
Recorded International Migration Flows, 2019–2024
Tunisian emigration was much larger than return migration and non-Tunisian immigration during the same five-year window.
Data: Tunisia National Institute of Statistics, RGPH 2024 migration analysis.
Emigration Is Concentrated in Young Adult and Educated Groups
Departures during 2019–2024 were concentrated among people aged 20–34. Women represented 25.2% of emigrants, up from 16.7% in 2009–2014.
Among emigrants with recorded characteristics, 45.8% had secondary education and 39.6% had higher education. Job search accounted for 45.5% of stated motives, followed by a work contract or transfer at 22.7%, study at 15.8%, and family reasons at 9.4%.
| Education level | Share of emigrants | Period | Population basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| No schooling | 0.9% | 2019–2024 | Emigrants with recorded characteristics |
| Primary | 9.2% | 2019–2024 | Emigrants with recorded characteristics |
| Secondary | 45.8% | 2019–2024 | Emigrants with recorded characteristics |
| Higher education | 39.6% | 2019–2024 | Emigrants with recorded characteristics |
| Vocational training | 4.5% | 2019–2024 | Emigrants with recorded characteristics |
The education distribution is based on 146,465 emigrants with recorded characteristics. The thematic release reported 10,032 cases with undetermined characteristics.
France, Italy, and Germany Gained More Tunisian Migrants
France remained the largest listed destination. Its count rose from 27,556 in 2009–2014 to 61,943 in 2019–2024. Italy and Germany also recorded larger flows, while the Libya count declined.
| Destination | 2009–2014 | 2019–2024 | Change between periods | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 27,556 | 61,943 | +34,387 | Recorded emigrant flow |
| Italy | 8,645 | 27,553 | +18,908 | Recorded emigrant flow |
| Germany | 2,998 | 12,450 | +9,452 | Recorded emigrant flow |
| Libya | 10,644 | 3,742 | −6,902 | Recorded emigrant flow |
Internal Migration Favors Greater Tunis Peripheries and Sousse
About 924,782 people changed residence within Tunisia during 2019–2024. Inter-governorate moves accounted for 227,356, down from 430,553 in 2009–2014. Women formed the larger share of inter-governorate movers, with 124,202 compared with 103,154 men.
Ariana, Ben Arous, and Sousse recorded the largest positive balances among the published examples. Tunis recorded the largest negative balance, indicating redistribution from the capital governorate toward surrounding urban areas rather than a simple retreat from the metropolitan region.
| Governorate | Net internal migration | Period | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariana | +17,785 | 2019–2024 | Net gain |
| Ben Arous | +12,818 | 2019–2024 | Net gain |
| Sousse | +11,252 | 2019–2024 | Net gain |
| Tunis | −14,074 | 2019–2024 | Net loss |
| Kairouan | −7,920 | 2019–2024 | Net loss |
| Kasserine | −7,910 | 2019–2024 | Net loss |
The Next Population Phase Is Defined by Three Connected Trends
Low fertility and falling birth counts reduce the number of children entering schools and, later, the number of new labor-market entrants.
The 60-plus share rose from 11.7% to 16.9% in one census interval, while the old-age dependency ratio reached 28.0%.
Emigration is concentrated in young adulthood and includes large secondary- and higher-education groups, changing more than the national headcount.
The UN Medium Variant Turns Negative in the Early 2050s
United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 places Tunisia’s transition from positive to negative annual population change in the early 2050s under the medium variant. The turning point is conditional on future fertility, mortality, and migration paths.
The projection does not mean that decline has already begun. The 2024 census still recorded a higher population than in 2014. The nearer-term change is structural: fewer children, a smaller working-age share, more residents aged 60 or older, and a larger role for migration in the size and composition of adult cohorts.
Projection boundary: Projected population is a scenario-based estimate, not a guaranteed prediction. It must remain separate from the observed census count.
Data Sources and Methodology
The 2024 national total is the resident population counted on 6 November 2024. Historical census values, broad age shares, median age, urban classification, marriage ages, aging measures, and migration flows come from Tunisia’s national statistical system. The fertility value refers to 2022 civil registration and is not a 2024 census measure.
Older census populations and several historical age shares are shown at the precision published in official charts. Destination changes were calculated by subtracting the 2009–2014 count from the 2019–2024 count. No missing years or age groups were interpolated.
| Institution | Release or data year | Used for | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia National Institute of Statistics | RGPH 2024 demographic results | Census population, historical counts, age structure, sex distribution, median age, and urban-rural classification | Census counts and shares |
| Tunisia National Institute of Statistics | Flash Demography, September 2025 | Intercensal growth, fertility, birth decline, first-marriage age, and aging indicators | Census analysis and civil-registration indicators |
| Tunisia National Institute of Statistics | Older Persons thematic release, September 2025 | Population aged 60+, sex distribution at older ages, and governorate shares | Census analysis |
| Tunisia National Institute of Statistics | Migration thematic release, September 2025 | Emigration, return migration, immigration, destinations, education, and internal migration | Intercensal migration flows |
| United Nations Population Division | World Population Prospects 2024 | Direction and timing of the projected change from positive to negative annual population growth | Medium-variant projection |
Methodological Safety Note: The 2024 census count is a population stock measured on 6 November and should not be treated as identical to a United Nations mid-year estimate. Tunisia’s older-age indicators use 60+, while many international tables use 65+. The 1.7 fertility rate refers to 2022, and 2.1 is a broad replacement benchmark rather than a fixed national threshold. Migration figures cover movements during 2019–2024 and are not foreign-population stocks. Broad age shares are rounded and do not form a detailed population pyramid. United Nations projections depend on scenario assumptions and remain separate from observed census data.