Skip to content

Africa · Middle Africa

Angola Demographics

Angola combines fast population growth, high fertility, a very young age structure, and a large urban population. The official 2024 census counted 36.6 million residents, while UN/WDI mid-year estimates place the population above 39.0 million in 2025.

Primary census values use Angola INE 2024 resident population data. Time-series estimates, fertility, migration, life expectancy and projections use World Bank WDI, UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 and UN WPP-derived tables. Census counts, mid-year estimates and projections are shown as separate measures.

Last updated: July 2, 2026

Core Demographic Indicators

Official population 36,604,681 2024 census · Angola INE
Intercensal growth 3.5% per year 2014-2024 · Angola INE
Median age 18.0 years 2024 census · Angola INE
Fertility rate 5.12 2023 · births per woman · World Bank WDI / UN WPP
Life expectancy 65 years 2024 · World Bank WDI
Urban population 23,991,388 65.5% · 2024 census · Angola INE
Aged 65+ 1,130,182 2.9% · 2025 · UN WPP-derived age table
Net migration -3,524 2025 · World Bank WDI / UN WPP

Detailed Demographic Indicators

IndicatorValueYearSource
Official resident population36,604,6812024Angola INE, 2024 Census
Mid-year population estimate39,040,0392025World Bank WDI / UN WPP 2024
UN medium-variant population projection40,215,1792026UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
Intercensal annual population growth3.5% per year2014-2024Angola INE, 2024 Census release
Annual population growth estimate3.0%2025World Bank WDI
Median age18.0 years2024Angola INE, 2024 Census
Mean age23.2 years2024Angola INE, 2024 Census
Total fertility rate5.12 births per woman2023World Bank WDI / UN WPP 2024
Life expectancy at birth65 years2024World Bank WDI
Urban residents23,991,388 (65.5%)2024Angola INE, 2024 Census
Rural residents12,613,293 (34.5%)2024Angola INE, 2024 Census
Population aged 0-1417,216,067 (44.1%)2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
Population aged 15-6420,693,799 (53.0%)2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
Population aged 65+1,130,182 (2.9%)2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
Male residents17,931,985 (48.99%)2024Angola INE, 2024 Census
Female residents18,672,696 (51.01%)2024Angola INE, 2024 Census
Sex ratio96.0 males per 100 females2024Calculated from Angola INE census counts
Net migration-3,5242025World Bank WDI / UN WPP 2024
Population density29 people per km²2024Angola INE, 2024 Census
Table analysis
  • The official 2024 census count is 36,604,681, while the 2025 WDI/UN mid-year estimate is 39,040,039.
  • The census median age is 18.0 years, confirming a very young age profile by international comparison.
  • Urban residents account for 65.5% of the official 2024 census population.
  • Female residents outnumber male residents by 740,711 in the 2024 census count.
  • Resident census counts and UN/WDI mid-year estimates use different measurement systems and should not be treated as identical series.

Population History and Demographic Series

YearPopulationYearly % changeYearly changeNet migrationMedian ageFertility rateDensityUrban pop %Urban populationWorld shareWorld populationGlobal rankSource
202640,215,1793.01%1,175,140-4,27016.74.893269.4%27,911,2690.48%8,300,678,39539UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
202539,040,0393.05%1,154,190-3,52416.64.953168.8%26,847,8870.47%8,231,613,07039UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
202437,885,8493.09%1,135,943-2,62916.55.053068.1%25,811,6650.46%8,161,972,57241UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
202336,749,9063.13%1,114,877-99516.55.122967.5%24,802,4450.45%8,091,734,93042UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
202235,635,0293.21%1,091,949-99516.45.212966.8%23,820,2610.44%8,021,407,19242UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
202033,451,1323.51%1,058,6677,55616.35.372765.6%21,936,9530.42%7,887,001,29244UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
201528,157,7983.86%972,59574,17116.35.772362.8%17,675,7450.38%7,470,491,87248UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
201023,294,8253.84%800,733122,41816.36.191960.0%13,970,8540.33%7,021,732,14850UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
200519,291,1613.56%619,25887,05016.26.461556.8%10,949,4240.29%6,586,970,13256UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
200016,194,8693.40%499,01872,79316.06.641350.8%8,234,8240.26%6,171,702,99357UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
199513,699,7783.34%414,68455,56816.06.921146.0%6,302,4780.24%5,758,878,98260UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
199011,626,3603.52%369,44864,82116.47.27938.9%4,520,9970.22%5,327,803,11060UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
19859,779,1203.75%329,05074,73816.77.45832.9%3,218,5670.20%4,868,943,46567UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
19808,133,8723.52%258,18572,19216.57.46726.7%2,169,8100.18%4,447,606,23671UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
19756,842,9473.18%198,03252,66216.07.49521.5%1,469,5150.17%4,070,735,27772UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
19705,852,7881.17%66,161-36,45616.17.43517.3%1,013,5310.16%3,694,683,79475UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
19655,521,9811.09%58,065-81,11117.67.12414.0%775,6670.17%3,334,533,70373UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
19605,231,6541.60%79,778-40,93518.86.71411.3%588,8420.17%3,015,470,89471UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
19554,832,7641.20%56,179-37,00019.36.2749.4%455,4280.18%2,740,213,79271UN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
Trend analysis
  • The UN WPP-derived series rises from 4.8 million in 1955 to 40.2 million in 2026.
  • The table keeps the UN/WPP-derived series separate from Angola’s official 2024 resident census count.
  • Urban population share moves from 9.4% in 1955 to 69.4% in 2026 in this model series.
  • Fertility remains high in the series, but falls from 7.49 in 1975 to 4.89 in 2026.
  • Net migration values vary by period and are model estimates, not border-counted immigration and emigration totals.

Population Trend

Angola Population Trend, 1955-2026

UN WPP-derived mid-year population estimates and medium-variant projection values

Hover or click the chart to inspect values.

Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 via Worldometer. Values are mid-year estimates or medium-variant projection values, not census counts.

Chart analysis
  • The modeled population line steepens after 2000, rising from 16.2 million to 40.2 million by 2026.
  • The 2024 chart value of 37.9 million is a UN/WPP-derived mid-year figure and differs from the official 2024 census count of 36.6 million.
  • The chart does not mix observed census counts with projection values inside the same source definition.

Urban and Rural Population

Urban and Rural Split, 2024 Census

Resident population by settlement type in the official census count

Hover or click the chart to inspect values.

Source: Angola INE, 2024 Census. Percentages are calculated from the published urban and rural resident counts.

Area typePopulationShareYearSource
Urban23,991,38865.5%2024Angola INE, 2024 Census
Rural12,613,29334.5%2024Angola INE, 2024 Census
Data analysis
  • The 2024 census recorded 23,991,388 urban residents and 12,613,293 rural residents.
  • Urban residents form 65.5% of the official census population.
  • The UN/WPP-derived urban series in the historical table uses a model-based urban definition and should be read separately from the census split.

Fertility Trend

Angola Fertility Rate and Replacement-Level Benchmark

Births per woman compared with the broad 2.1 replacement-level benchmark

Hover or click the chart to inspect values.

Source: PopulationPyramids.org based on UN WPP 2024 for the fertility series; 2023 also appears in World Bank WDI. The 2024 value is a UN/WPP-derived estimate.

YearFertility rateCrude birth rateBirthsData typeSource
20056.46138 per 1,000Data not availableUN WPP-derived estimatePopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
20155.77434 per 1,0001,327,362UN WPP-derived estimatePopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
20205.37132 per 1,0001,249,282UN WPP-derived estimatePopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
20215.30432 per 1,0001,249,282UN WPP-derived estimatePopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
20225.20930 per 1,0001,171,201UN WPP-derived estimatePopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
20235.12429 per 1,0001,132,161UN WPP-derived estimatePopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024; World Bank WDI for TFR
20245.05Data not availableData not availableUN WPP-derived estimateUN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
Data analysis
  • The fertility rate falls from 6.461 in 2005 to 5.124 in 2023 in the UN WPP-derived series.
  • The 2023 value remains well above the broad replacement-level benchmark of 2.1 births per woman.
  • The 2024 fertility value is kept as a UN/WPP-derived estimate, while the core indicator uses the 2023 WDI value.

Age Structure

Broad Age Structure, 2025

Population grouped into youth, working-age and older-age bands

Hover or click the chart to inspect values.

Source: PopulationPyramids.org based on UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024. This broad age chart is not a population pyramid.

Age groupPopulationShareYearSource
0-1417,216,06744.1%2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
15-6420,693,79953.0%2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
65+1,130,1822.9%2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
Data analysis
  • The 0-14 group accounts for 44.1% of the 2025 UN WPP-derived age table.
  • The 65+ group is 2.9%, which is low compared with older-age profiles in many higher-income countries.
  • The working-age band is the largest broad group by count, with 20,693,799 people.

Five-Year Age Distribution

Population by Five-Year Age Group, 2025

UN WPP-derived population totals by age group

Hover or click the chart to inspect values.

Source: PopulationPyramids.org based on UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024. Sex-specific 2025 age-group counts were not available in the parsed dataset used here.

Age groupPopulationShareBroad groupYearSource
0-46,476,08916.6%0-142025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
5-95,729,32914.7%0-142025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
10-145,010,64912.8%0-142025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
15-194,183,62410.7%15-642025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
20-243,368,6938.6%15-642025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
25-292,773,4127.1%15-642025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
30-342,426,1626.2%15-642025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
35-392,105,5755.4%15-642025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
40-441,733,6184.4%15-642025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
45-491,387,1173.6%15-642025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
50-541,108,7152.8%15-642025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
55-59902,7732.3%15-642025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
60-64704,1101.8%15-642025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
65-69502,9351.3%65+2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
70-74313,6820.8%65+2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
75-79180,6820.5%65+2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
80-8490,1220.2%65+2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
85-8933,5580.1%65+2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
90-948,0100.0%65+2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
95-991,0880.0%65+2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
100+1050.0%65+2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
Table analysis
  • The largest five-year group is 0-4, with 6,476,089 people.
  • The first three age groups together form the 0-14 total of 17,216,067.
  • The age distribution narrows rapidly at older ages; the 65+ total is 1,130,182.
  • This 2025 table is age-only. It is not used for the population pyramid because sex-specific 2025 age counts were not available in the parsed dataset.

Age-Sex Population Structure

Angola Population Pyramid, 2014 Census

Resident population by five-year age group and sex

Hover or click the chart to inspect values.

Source: Angola INE, 2014 Census age-sex resident population table. This is the latest detailed five-year age-sex census table used on this page.

Age groupMaleFemaleTotalMale shareFemale shareSex ratioYearSource
0-42,484,5822,513,5664,998,14849.7%50.3%98.82014Angola INE, 2014 Census
5-92,062,8882,097,2874,160,17449.6%50.4%98.42014Angola INE, 2014 Census
10-141,504,1801,533,9933,038,17349.5%50.5%98.12014Angola INE, 2014 Census
15-191,222,7001,287,7362,510,43648.7%51.3%94.92014Angola INE, 2014 Census
20-241,020,6991,153,8022,174,50146.9%53.1%88.52014Angola INE, 2014 Census
25-29913,7261,031,3231,945,05047.0%53.0%88.62014Angola INE, 2014 Census
30-34714,239789,2811,503,52047.5%52.5%90.52014Angola INE, 2014 Census
35-39654,408728,5501,382,95947.3%52.7%89.82014Angola INE, 2014 Census
40-44510,344539,7421,050,08548.6%51.4%94.62014Angola INE, 2014 Census
45-49417,953446,951864,90448.3%51.7%93.52014Angola INE, 2014 Census
50-54332,638376,532709,16946.9%53.1%88.32014Angola INE, 2014 Census
55-59229,641253,678483,31947.5%52.5%90.52014Angola INE, 2014 Census
60-64165,937190,217356,15446.6%53.4%87.22014Angola INE, 2014 Census
65-6995,614119,773215,38744.4%55.6%79.82014Angola INE, 2014 Census
70-7478,673101,494180,16743.7%56.3%77.52014Angola INE, 2014 Census
75-7939,25753,68792,94442.2%57.8%73.12014Angola INE, 2014 Census
80-8428,35138,44166,79242.4%57.6%73.82014Angola INE, 2014 Census
85-899,96714,86124,82840.1%59.9%67.12014Angola INE, 2014 Census
90-947,60310,57218,17541.8%58.2%71.92014Angola INE, 2014 Census
95+5,6408,49814,13839.9%60.1%66.42014Angola INE, 2014 Census
Age-sex analysis
  • The 2014 census age-sex table has a broad base: the 0-4 group alone contains 4,998,148 residents.
  • Females outnumber males in every five-year age group shown in the 2014 census table.
  • The sex ratio is closest to balance in the youngest group, at 98.8 males per 100 females for ages 0-4.
  • The sex ratio declines at older ages, reaching 66.4 males per 100 females in the 95+ group.
  • The 0-14 population totals 12,196,496 in the 2014 census age-sex table, equal to 47.3% of the resident census population.
  • This pyramid is based on the 2014 census because a detailed 2024 five-year age-sex table was not available in the dataset used for this page.

Male and Female Population Over Time

Census Male and Female Counts, 2014 and 2024

Official resident population by sex in the two most recent census counts used here

Hover or click the chart to inspect values.

Source: Angola INE, 2014 and 2024 Census counts. Sex ratio is calculated as males per 100 females.

YearMaleFemaleTotalMale shareFemale shareSex ratioSource
201412,499,04113,289,98325,789,02448.47%51.53%94.0Angola INE, 2014 Census
202417,931,98518,672,69636,604,68148.99%51.01%96.0Angola INE, 2024 Census
Data analysis
  • The resident census population increased by 10,815,657 between 2014 and 2024.
  • Male residents increased by 5,432,944; female residents increased by 5,382,713.
  • The sex ratio moved from 94.0 to 96.0 males per 100 females between the two census counts.

Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy at Birth, 2024

World Bank WDI estimate for total population

Hover or click the chart to inspect values.

Source: World Bank WDI. Sex-specific life expectancy values were not used because the current visible dataset on this page uses the total WDI value only.

Chart analysis
  • The WDI total life expectancy value for 2024 is 65 years.
  • Male and female life expectancy gaps are not charted here because sex-specific values were not part of the source set used for the visible table.

Population Projection

Medium-Variant Population Projection, 2030-2050

Scenario-based UN WPP 2024 projection series

Hover or click the chart to inspect values.

Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 via Worldometer. Population projections are scenario-based estimates, not guaranteed predictions.

YearProjected populationYearly % changeYearly changeNet migration assumptionMedian ageFertility rateDensityUrban pop %Urban populationWorld shareWorld populationGlobal rankScenarioSource
203045,160,4582.96%1,224,084-1,65817.34.563671.8%32,437,1320.53%8,569,124,91138Medium variantUN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
203551,821,7182.79%1,332,2523,01318.14.164274.7%38,691,4490.58%8,885,210,18135Medium variantUN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
204058,965,3212.62%1,428,7216,96519.03.814777.3%45,556,3990.64%9,177,190,20331Medium variantUN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
204566,464,3292.42%1,499,8022,13119.93.485379.8%53,037,0250.70%9,439,639,66830Medium variantUN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
205074,295,3942.25%1,566,21323,11020.93.246082.3%61,131,5790.77%9,664,378,58727Medium variantUN WPP 2024 via Worldometer
Projection analysis
  • The medium-variant projection rises from 45.2 million in 2030 to 74.3 million in 2050.
  • The projected fertility rate declines from 4.56 in 2030 to 3.24 in 2050.
  • The projected urban share reaches 82.3% by 2050 in this scenario.
  • Projection rows should be read as scenario outputs, not observed population counts.

Urban Areas

RankUrban areaPopulation estimateYearSource
1Luanda11,370,1272025Worldometer urban area table
2Lubango1,280,9862025Worldometer urban area table
3Cabinda1,157,3452025Worldometer urban area table
4Malanje973,0862025Worldometer urban area table
5Luena714,2892025Worldometer urban area table
6Cuito689,7952025Worldometer urban area table
7Huambo634,6692025Worldometer urban area table
8Benguela589,2892025Worldometer urban area table
9Lobito516,1532025Worldometer urban area table
10Saurimo514,7282025Worldometer urban area table
Table analysis
  • Luanda is the only listed urban area above 10 million in the 2025 table.
  • The second listed urban area, Lubango, is estimated at 1,280,986.
  • Urban area estimates may use boundaries that differ from administrative municipality or province counts.

Country Comparison

The comparison uses countries commonly discussed alongside Angola because of population scale, age structure, fertility, migration or regional context. Values use the same 2025 display source and UN WPP 2024 basis where available.

Median Age Comparison, 2025

Selected countries using the same UN WPP-derived display source

Hover or click the chart to inspect values.

Source: PopulationPyramids.org based on UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024. Values use 2025 for all rows in this comparison.

CountryPopulationMedian ageAged 0-14Aged 65+YearSource note
Angola39,040,04817.844.1%2.9%2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
Namibia3,092,82722.436.7%3.8%2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
Zambia21,913,88419.041.0%2.0%2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
Democratic Republic of the Congo112,832,48516.945.9%3.1%2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
Botswana2,562,12924.532.0%4.1%2025PopulationPyramids.org / UN WPP 2024
Comparison analysis
  • Angola’s 2025 comparison median age is 17.8 years, close to the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 16.9 and Zambia at 19.0.
  • Angola’s 0-14 share of 44.1% is higher than Namibia and Botswana in the same display source.
  • All comparison rows use the same year and source basis, reducing definition mismatch inside this table.

Demographic Overview

Population direction

The 2024 census counted 36.6 million residents, up from 25.8 million in the 2014 census.

Source contrast

The official census count and UN/WDI mid-year estimates differ because they use different reference dates and methods.

Age structure

The 2024 census median age is 18.0 years, while the 2025 UN WPP-derived age table places 44.1% of the population under age 15.

Fertility pattern

The 2023 fertility rate is 5.12 births per woman, far above the broad 2.1 replacement-level benchmark.

Urban profile

The 2024 census records 23.99 million urban residents, equal to 65.5% of the official resident population.

Projection path

The UN medium-variant scenario reaches 74.3 million by 2050, with fertility still above replacement level in that scenario.

Data Sources and Methodology

Values in this profile are grouped by source definition. Official Angola census counts are used for resident population, sex counts, median age, urban-rural split and density. UN/WDI mid-year estimates and UN WPP-derived series are used for long-run trends, fertility, migration, urban series, age tables and projections where official time-series tables were not used.

SourceYear or releaseUsed for
Angola Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE), 2024 CensusReference date 2024; definitive release 2025Official resident population, male and female counts, median age, mean age, density, urban and rural resident counts
Republic of Angola Ministry of Planning, Sociodemographic Indicators2024 census indicator pagePublished census headline values and source confirmation for total population, sex distribution, median age and density
Angola INE, 2014 Census2014 final census resultsDetailed five-year age-sex table, population pyramid and 2014-to-2024 census sex comparison
World Bank World Development Indicators2024-2025 latest listed values2025 mid-year population estimate, 2025 annual population growth, 2025 net migration, 2024 life expectancy and 2023 fertility indicator
UN DESA World Population Prospects 20242024 revisionPopulation estimate and projection basis, projection scenario definitions and long-run demographic series
Worldometer elaboration of UN WPP 20242025-2026 table viewExtended population history table fields, forecast table fields, UN WPP-derived urban series, density, world share, rank and urban area estimates
PopulationPyramids.org based on UN WPP 20242025 display tableFive-year age distribution, broad age structure, fertility table and same-source country comparison

Indicator Definitions

IndicatorDefinitionUnitSource note
Resident populationPeople counted as residents in the census reference system.PersonsUsed for Angola INE census values.
Mid-year populationPopulation estimated for the middle of the calendar year.PersonsUsed for WDI and UN WPP-derived time series.
Yearly changeAnnual net change in the population series used by the source.Persons or percentUsed only inside the UN WPP-derived historical and forecast tables.
Net migrationNet balance of migrants entering and leaving the population estimate.PersonsWorld Bank WDI and UN WPP-derived model estimate; not an immigration admissions count.
Total fertility rateAverage number of births per woman implied by age-specific fertility rates.Births per womanWDI and UN WPP-derived fertility tables.
Urban populationPopulation classified as urban under the source’s settlement definition.Persons or percentCensus urban/rural counts and UN WPP-derived urban series are kept separate.
Sex ratioNumber of males per 100 females.Males per 100 femalesCalculated from visible male and female counts.
ProjectionScenario-based future population estimate.PersonsUN WPP 2024 medium variant in the projection section.
Age-sex tablePopulation by age group and sex.Persons, percent and sex ratio2014 census five-year age-sex table; not replaced by broad 2025 age-only data.
Method note
  • The page avoids blending census resident counts and UN/WDI mid-year estimates in the same chart unless the table is explicitly source-based.
  • Projection values are separated from historical estimates and clearly labeled as medium-variant scenario values.
  • Rounded shares may not sum to exactly 100.0%.
  • Values marked as calculated use only visible source counts and simple arithmetic.

Methodological Safety Note

Methodological Safety Note: Angola’s official resident census count, UN/WDI mid-year estimates and UN projection values are different measures. The 2024 census count is tied to a census reference date, while WDI and UN WPP series are calendar-year demographic estimates. Urban shares depend on the source definition of urban residence. Net migration in WDI/UN tables is a model estimate, not a direct count of all immigration and emigration events. The population pyramid uses the 2014 census age-sex table because detailed 2024 five-year age-sex counts were not available in the dataset used here. The 2.1 fertility benchmark is a broad reference point and is not a guarantee of population replacement in every setting.

FAQ

What is Angola’s official 2024 census population?

Angola’s official 2024 census counted 36,604,681 residents.

Why do the census and UN/WDI population values differ?

The census is a resident count tied to a census reference date. UN/WDI values are mid-year estimates or projections, so the values are not expected to match exactly.

How young is Angola’s population?

The 2024 census median age is 18.0 years. The 2025 UN WPP-derived age table places 44.1% of the population under age 15.

Is Angola’s fertility below replacement level?

No. The 2023 WDI/UN WPP fertility rate is 5.12 births per woman, above the broad 2.1 replacement-level benchmark.

Are the projection values guaranteed predictions?

No. The projection table uses the UN WPP 2024 medium variant. It is a scenario-based estimate, not an observed count.