Southern Africa · National Demographic Profile
Zambia Demographics: Population Growth Despite Falling Fertility
Zambia counted 19,693,423 usual residents in 2022. The population is still expanding quickly even as fertility falls, because large child and youth cohorts continue to move into the reproductive and working ages.
Observed measures use the 2022 Census of Population and Housing and the 2024 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey. The 2026 population and later values are official scenario-based projections.
Core Demographic Indicators
Population Growth Accelerated Between the 2010 and 2022 Censuses
Zambia’s de jure census population rose from 4.1 million in 1969 to 19.7 million in 2022. The 2010–2022 interval added 6.6 million people, a 50.4% increase. The official average annual growth rate for that interval was 3.5%, above the 2.8% recorded for 2000–2010.
The census count refers to usual residents at the census reference time. It is not the same measure as a mid-year estimate or a future population projection.
| Census year | Population | Change from previous census | Average annual growth in preceding interval | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1969 | 4,056,955 | — | — | De jure census count |
| 1980 | 5,661,801 | 39.6% | Not stated in the selected report | De jure census count |
| 1990 | 7,383,097 | 30.4% | 2.7% | De jure census count |
| 2000 | 9,885,591 | 33.9% | 2.4% | De jure census count |
| 2010 | 13,092,666 | 32.4% | 2.8% | De jure census count |
| 2022 | 19,693,423 | 50.4% | 3.5% | De jure census count |
The percentage-change column is calculated from consecutive official census counts. Displayed percentages are rounded to one decimal place.
Zambia Census Population, 1969–2022
De jure population counted in six national censuses
Data: Zambia Statistics Agency, 2022 Census National Analytical Report.
Fertility Fell to 4.0 Children per Woman
The 2024 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey measured a total fertility rate of 4.0 births per woman for the three years before the survey. The comparable rate was 6.5 in 1992. The decline was not continuous: the national series rose from 5.9 in 2001–02 to 6.2 in 2007 before falling in the next three surveys.
Residence remains a major dividing line in the survey results. The 2024 rate was 3.2 in urban areas and 4.9 in rural areas, a gap of 1.7 births per woman.
| Survey | National TFR | Urban TFR | Rural TFR | Reference period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 ZDHS | 6.5 | 5.8 | 7.1 | Three years before survey |
| 1996 ZDHS | 6.1 | 5.1 | 6.9 | Three years before survey |
| 2001–02 ZDHS | 5.9 | 4.3 | 6.9 | Three years before survey |
| 2007 ZDHS | 6.2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | Three years before survey |
| 2013–14 ZDHS | 5.3 | 3.7 | 6.6 | Three years before survey |
| 2018 ZDHS | 4.7 | 3.4 | 5.8 | Three years before survey |
| 2024 ZDHS | 4.0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | Three years before survey |
Total Fertility Rate by Residence, 1992–2024
Births per woman during the three years before each Zambia DHS
Data: Zambia Demographic and Health Survey 2024, Table 5.3.2.
Why Lower Fertility Has Not Stopped Population Growth
- The TFR fell by 2.5 births per woman between the 1992 and 2024 surveys.
- Children under age 15 still formed 42.0% of the 2022 census population.
- Large cohorts born under earlier, higher fertility are entering the reproductive ages, so the number of potential parents remains high even when average family size falls.
- The official medium variant still projects 23.0 million people in 2026 and 39.9 million in 2047.
A Median Age of 18.3 Reflects a Young Population Structure
In the 2022 census, 42.0% of the population was under age 15, 55.2% was aged 15–64 and 2.8% was aged 65 or older. The urban population had an older median age and a larger working-age share than the rural population.
| Residence | Under 15 | Age 15–64 | Age 65+ | Median age | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 42.0% | 55.2% | 2.8% | 18.3 years | 2022 |
| Rural | 45.5% | 51.3% | 3.1% | 16.8 years | 2022 |
| Urban | 37.7% | 60.0% | 2.4% | 20.3 years | 2022 |
Zambia Population Pyramid, 2022
Percentage distribution within the male and female populations by five-year age group
Data: Zambia Statistics Agency, 2022 census. Each sex series totals about 100%; minor differences reflect rounding.
Detailed Age-Sex Distribution
The values below show the percentage distribution within each sex, matching the census pyramid series. They are not percentages of the combined national population.
| Age group | Male distribution | Female distribution | Year | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 14.3% | 13.8% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 5–9 | 14.2% | 13.9% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 10–14 | 14.0% | 13.8% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 15–19 | 12.0% | 11.9% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 20–24 | 9.4% | 9.8% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 25–29 | 7.8% | 8.2% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 30–34 | 6.3% | 6.3% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 35–39 | 5.4% | 5.6% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 40–44 | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 45–49 | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 50–54 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 55–59 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 60–64 | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 65–69 | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 70–74 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 75–79 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 80–84 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
| 85+ | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2022 | Share within each sex |
Urban Population Grew Faster but Zambia Remained Majority Rural
The urban share rose from 34.7% in 2000 to 39.5% in 2010 and 44.7% in 2022. Between 2010 and 2022, the urban population increased by 70.0%, compared with 37.6% in rural areas. Average annual growth was 4.5% in urban areas and 2.7% in rural areas.
The official medium projection places the urban share at 45.4% in 2023 and 49.5% in 2047. Zambia therefore remains just below an even urban-rural split at the end of the projection period.
| Year | Urban share | Rural share | Measure type | Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 34.7% | 65.3% | Census distribution | Observed |
| 2010 | 39.5% | 60.5% | Census distribution | Observed |
| 2022 | 44.7% | 55.3% | Census distribution | Observed |
| 2023 | 45.4% | 54.6% | Medium-variant projection | Projected |
| 2027 | 46.0% | 54.0% | Medium-variant projection | Projected |
| 2032 | 46.8% | 53.2% | Medium-variant projection | Projected |
| 2037 | 47.6% | 52.4% | Medium-variant projection | Projected |
| 2042 | 48.5% | 51.5% | Medium-variant projection | Projected |
| 2047 | 49.5% | 50.5% | Medium-variant projection | Projected |
Urban Share of Zambia’s Population, 2000–2047
Census observations followed by the official medium-variant projection
Data: Zambia Statistics Agency. Observed census shares and projected shares are shown as separate series.
What Can Change the Future Urban Share
- The projection report links the future urban share to migration, mortality differences and the reclassification of settlements.
- Higher rural fertility can keep the rural population growing even when people move toward urban areas.
- The projected share is therefore not a direct forecast of rural-to-urban migration alone.
North Western and Central Recorded the Fastest Inter-Censal Growth
Every province gained population between 2010 and 2022, but the rates differed. North Western recorded the highest average annual rate at 4.8%, followed by Central at 4.7%. Copperbelt and Lusaka recorded the lowest rates in the provincial table, both at 2.9%.
| Province | Population 2010 | Population 2022 | Change 2010–2022 | Average annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | 1,307,111 | 2,261,336 | 73.0% | 4.7% |
| Copperbelt | 1,972,317 | 2,768,192 | 40.4% | 2.9% |
| Eastern | 1,592,661 | 2,462,682 | 54.6% | 3.2% |
| Luapula | 991,927 | 1,519,478 | 53.2% | 3.6% |
| Lusaka | 2,191,225 | 3,093,617 | 41.2% | 2.9% |
| Muchinga | 711,657 | 922,213 | 29.6% | 3.5% |
| Northern | 1,105,824 | 1,623,853 | 46.8% | 3.3% |
| North Western | 727,044 | 1,278,357 | 75.8% | 4.8% |
| Southern | 1,589,926 | 2,388,091 | 50.2% | 3.4% |
| Western | 902,974 | 1,375,604 | 52.3% | 3.6% |
Average Annual Population Growth by Province, 2010–2022
Inter-censal growth rate reported by the 2022 census
Data: Zambia Statistics Agency, 2022 Census National Analytical Report.
The Medium Variant Reaches 39.9 Million by 2047
The national projections start at about 21.0 million in 2023 and keep the population on an upward path through 2047 in all three variants. The medium series reaches 23,003,214 in 2026, 29,782,660 in 2035 and 39,859,562 in 2047.
The medium fertility assumption falls from 4.6 births per woman in 2023 to 3.3 in 2047. The low and high variants alter the future fertility path while holding the projected mortality and migration components at the medium-variant settings.
| Year | Low variant | Medium variant | High variant | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20,991,197 | 20,986,170 | 21,007,375 | Projected mid-year population |
| 2026 | 22,953,528 | 23,003,214 | 23,096,692 | Projected mid-year population |
| 2035 | 29,440,532 | 29,782,660 | 30,210,383 | Projected mid-year population |
| 2040 | 33,270,488 | 33,867,395 | 34,582,529 | Projected mid-year population |
| 2045 | 37,183,224 | 38,117,936 | 39,236,592 | Projected mid-year population |
| 2047 | 38,762,080 | 39,859,562 | 41,181,098 | Projected mid-year population |
Projection table consistency: the report’s main province table, appendix series and narrative place the 2030 medium population at about 25.9 million, while its three-variant table prints 26,161,262. The medium series on this page follows the appendix and main series; 2030 is omitted from the three-variant comparison.
Population Projection Variants, 2023–2047
Selected years from the official low, medium and high mid-year projection series
Data: Zambia Statistics Agency, Population and Demographic Projections National Report, 2023–2047.
Limits of the Projection
- All three variants rise throughout the displayed period; none shows a population peak before 2047.
- The 2047 difference between the low and high variants is 2,419,018 people.
- The projection report states that future results depend on fertility, mortality and migration assumptions that later data may confirm or revise.
Zambia’s Demographic Direction
Fertility is lower than in earlier surveys, but the large number of children and young adults sustains population momentum.
The under-15 share fell from 45.5% in 2010 to 42.0% in 2022, while the 15–64 share reached 55.2%.
The urban share reached 44.7% in 2022 and is projected at 49.5% in 2047 under the official medium variant.
Data Sources and Methodology
The page keeps census observations, survey estimates and projections as separate measure types. Census percentage changes are derived from consecutive official population counts. The age-sex pyramid uses the published percentage distribution within each sex rather than estimated counts. Projected values are reproduced from the official national projection report, except that the medium series follows its appendix and main table where the report contains a conflicting 2030 entry.
| Source | Release or data year | Used for | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zambia Statistics Agency, 2022 Census National Analytical Report | 2022 census · 2025 report | Census population, inter-censal growth, urban-rural distribution, age structure, age-sex distribution and provincial growth | De jure census count and census shares |
| Zambia Statistics Agency and Ministry of Health, Zambia Demographic and Health Survey 2024 | 2024 survey | National, urban and rural total fertility rates from 1992 to 2024 | Survey estimate for the three years before each survey |
| Zambia Statistics Agency, Population and Demographic Projections National Report, 2023–2047 | 2023–2047 projections · 2026 report | 2026 population, projection variants, fertility assumption and projected urban share | Scenario-based mid-year projection |
Methodological Safety Note: The 19,693,423 population is a de jure census count with a reference time of 8 September 2022. The 23,003,214 value for 2026 is a medium-variant mid-year projection, not a new count. The 2024 fertility rate describes the three years before the survey and should not be treated as the same measure as the projection model’s 2023 fertility assumption. Urban classifications and future urban shares can change with settlement reclassification as well as migration and natural population change. Percentages may not total exactly 100 because of rounding.