Asia · Southern Asia
Afghanistan Demographics
Afghanistan combines fast population growth, a broad child population, fertility above four births per woman and cross-border return movements measured in millions. Its population totals remain model-based estimates because the country has not completed a nationwide census.
Sources used: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024, UNFPA State of World Population 2025, IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix and UNFPA census-method publications.
Last updated: July 21, 2026
Core Demographic Indicators
Afghanistan’s Population Is Estimated, Not Fully Counted
Afghanistan has not completed a nationwide population census. The 1979 census operation was interrupted, and later population work has relied on household surveys, administrative records, settlement mapping, satellite imagery and statistical modelling.
The current national total is therefore a modelled population estimate, not a direct headcount. This distinction also affects provincial totals, age distributions and population projections.
| Indicator | Value | Year | Measure Type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total population | 43.8 million | 2025 | Rounded model estimate | UNFPA, based on UN WPP 2024 |
| Estimated population doubling time | 26 years | 2025 | Rate-derived duration | UNFPA |
| Population aged 0–14 | 43% | 2025 | Share of modelled population | UNFPA, based on UN WPP 2024 |
| Population aged 15–64 | 55% | 2025 | Share of modelled population | UNFPA, based on UN WPP 2024 |
| Population aged 65 and older | 2% | 2025 | Share of modelled population | UNFPA, based on UN WPP 2024 |
| Median age | 16.9 years | 2023 | Model estimate | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Total age-dependency ratio | 83.8 per 100 people aged 15–64 | 2023 | Modelled ratio | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Total fertility rate | 4.7 births per woman | 2025 | Model estimate | UNFPA, based on UN WPP 2024 |
| Male life expectancy at birth | 65 years | 2025 | Model estimate | UNFPA, based on UN WPP 2024 |
| Female life expectancy at birth | 68 years | 2025 | Model estimate | UNFPA, based on UN WPP 2024 |
| Annual population growth rate | 2.8% | 2023 | Model estimate | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Annual net migration | −48,960 | 2023 | Modelled migration balance | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
Why Population Totals Differ Between Releases
- The UN WPP estimate for 2023 is 41,454,762, while UNFPA reports a rounded 2025 estimate of 43.8 million.
- The figures refer to different years and rounding levels; neither is a completed census count.
- Model revisions can alter earlier estimates when new surveys, settlement maps or migration evidence become available.
Fertility Fell, but the Birth Cohorts Remain Large
Afghanistan’s total fertility rate declined from about 7.2 births per woman in 1950 to 4.84 in 2023. The 2025 UNFPA estimate is 4.7. The decline is clear, but fertility remains more than twice the broad replacement-level benchmark of 2.1 births per woman.
Lower fertility does not immediately stop population growth. A large number of girls and young women are entering reproductive ages because earlier birth cohorts were large. With 43% of the population below age 15, this age composition can sustain a high number of births even when the average number of births per woman continues to fall.
Fertility Has Declined From a High Starting Level
Total fertility rate in selected years compared with the broad replacement-level benchmark
Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 and UNFPA State of World Population 2025. The 2.1 line is a broad benchmark, not a fixed national threshold.
Why Growth Continues After Fertility Falls
- Fertility declined by about one-third between 1950 and 2023.
- The 2025 rate of 4.7 remains high enough to produce large annual birth cohorts.
- The population-growth effect of falling fertility is delayed when a large share of the population is still approaching childbearing ages.
Forty-Three Percent of the Population Is Under 15
Afghanistan’s broad age structure is heavily weighted toward children. In 2025, people aged 0–14 accounted for 43% of the population, compared with 55% aged 15–64 and 2% aged 65 or older.
The child share is about 21.5 times the older-age share when the rounded percentages are compared. This produces immediate demand for maternal care, child health services and schooling, followed later by demand for work, housing and new household formation.
Broad Age Structure
Share of the estimated population by three broad age groups, 2025
Source: UNFPA State of World Population 2025, based on UN World Population Prospects 2024. This is a broad age-structure chart, not a population pyramid.
What the Age Distribution Adds
- The median age was 16.9 years in 2023, placing half of the modelled population below that age.
- The total dependency ratio was 83.8 dependants per 100 people aged 15–64 in 2023.
- Most of the dependency burden comes from children rather than older adults.
Return Flows and Net Migration Measure Different Movements
Afghanistan’s migration profile cannot be represented by one number. The UN net-migration estimate measures the balance between immigration and emigration during a year. IOM return data count observed return movements from Iran and Pakistan over a multi-year period.
IOM recorded about 6.04 million returns from Iran and Pakistan between mid-September 2023 and May 30, 2026. This cumulative flow should not be added directly to the resident population because it covers a different period and measure, and border-flow totals do not establish how long each person remained in Afghanistan.
| Measure | Value | Period | Measure Type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Births | 1,469,000 | 2023 | Annual model estimate | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Deaths | 240,300 | 2023 | Annual model estimate | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Natural increase | 1,228,700 | 2023 | Derived: births minus deaths | Calculated from UN WPP 2024 values |
| Net migration | −48,960 | 2023 | Annual modelled balance | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Population growth rate | 2.8% | 2023 | Annual model estimate | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Growth rate without migration | 3.0% | 2023 | Modelled natural-growth rate | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Returns from Iran and Pakistan | About 6.04 million | Mid-September 2023–May 30, 2026 | Cumulative monitored return flow | IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix |
Why the Migration Numbers Are Not Interchangeable
- Births exceeded deaths by an estimated 1,228,700 in 2023.
- The negative net-migration estimate was much smaller than natural increase, allowing the total population to continue growing.
- The 6.04 million return figure is a cumulative monitored flow across more than two and a half years, not the net number added to the resident population.
The 2100 Range Spans 75.7 Million People
UN World Population Prospects 2024 places Afghanistan’s 2100 population between 95.8 million in the low scenario and 171.5 million in the high scenario. The medium scenario reaches 130.2 million.
The medium result is about 3.1 times the estimated 2023 population. The distance between the low and high scenarios reflects the cumulative effects of different fertility, mortality and migration paths over the remainder of the century.
Afghanistan’s 2100 Population Scenarios
Low, medium and high projection variants from the same UN revision
Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024. Population projections are scenario-based estimates, not guaranteed predictions.
| Scenario | Projected Population | Projection Year | Measure Type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low variant | 95,826,893 | 2100 | Scenario-based projection | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Medium variant | 130,216,739 | 2100 | Scenario-based projection | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| High variant | 171,544,157 | 2100 | Scenario-based projection | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
Limits of the Projection
- The low-to-high spread reaches 75,717,264 people by 2100.
- Small differences in fertility sustained across several decades produce much larger differences late in the projection period.
- Future return migration, emigration and mortality patterns add further uncertainty to the national total.
Data Sources and Methodology
The page separates rounded 2025 indicators from the more precise 2023 UN population series. UN WPP values are modelled mid-year estimates because Afghanistan lacks a completed census. Values from 2024 onward in the UN projection series are scenario-based projections.
Natural increase was calculated as births minus deaths: 1,469,000 minus 240,300 equals 1,228,700. The child-to-older-age comparison divides the rounded 0–14 share by the rounded 65+ share. The 2100 scenario spread subtracts the low variant from the high variant. No missing years or age groups were interpolated.
| Source | Release or Data Year | Used for | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 | 1950–2100 series; 2024 revision | Population, fertility, births, deaths, growth, median age, dependency, net migration and projections | Modelled estimates and projection variants |
| UNFPA State of World Population 2025 | 2025 | Rounded population, age shares, fertility, life expectancy and doubling time | Rounded indicators based mainly on UN WPP 2024 |
| IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix | Flows through May 30, 2026 | Cumulative returns from Iran and Pakistan | Monitored cross-border return movements |
| UNFPA Afghanistan census-method publications | 1979 census history and hybrid-method documentation | Census limitations and population-estimation methods | Methodological documentation |
Methodological Safety Note: Afghanistan’s population values are not completed census counts. The 2025 UNFPA total is rounded, while the 2023 UN WPP figure is reported with greater numerical precision. IOM return totals measure cumulative border movements and are not equivalent to annual net migration or permanent additions to the resident population. Broad age shares cannot support a full population pyramid, and projection variants should not be treated as predictions.
Data Questions About Afghanistan
Why do population sources report different totals for Afghanistan?
Sources may refer to different years, model revisions and rounding levels. Afghanistan has no completed national census against which every current estimate can be directly reconciled.
Is the 43.8 million population figure a census result?
No. It is a rounded 2025 model estimate published by UNFPA and based mainly on the UN World Population Prospects 2024 series.
Why can the population grow while fertility declines?
Fertility has fallen from its earlier level, but 43% of the population is still under age 15. Large cohorts entering reproductive ages can keep the number of births high even as births per woman decline.
Does 6.04 million returns mean the population increased by that amount?
No. The IOM figure counts monitored return movements from Iran and Pakistan across a multi-year period. It does not measure emigration during the same period, repeat movement, duration of stay or the net change in resident population.
Is the broad age chart a population pyramid?
No. A population pyramid requires detailed age groups divided by sex. The available chart uses only the 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ shares.
Will Afghanistan have 130 million people in 2100?
That is the UN medium projection, not a guaranteed result. The same revision gives a 2100 range from about 95.8 million in the low scenario to 171.5 million in the high scenario.