South America · Demographic Transition
Uruguay Demographics: Low Fertility, Aging and Population Change
Uruguay has moved beyond long-term population stagnation into a post-peak phase. The latest official revision places the national population maximum at 3,510,305 in 2020, while low fertility, births below deaths and a rapidly older age structure point toward gradual population decline unless migration changes the trajectory.
Primary sources: Uruguay National Institute of Statistics (INE), Censo 2023, the 2025 Population Estimates and Projections revision, and Ministry of Public Health vital statistics published by INE.
Last updated: August 13, 2026
Core Demographic Indicators
Uruguay Has Moved Beyond Its Population Peak
Uruguay’s population changed relatively little across the last several census periods. INE’s 2025 revision now identifies 2020 as the national population peak, at 3,510,305 people. The final Censo 2023 population estimate was slightly lower, at 3,499,451.
The two figures represent different statistical reference points. The 2020 maximum comes from the revised annual population estimates, while the 2023 figure is the census-based estimated resident population for May 31, 2023.
| Year | Population | Reference | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 3,258,203 | June 30 | INE population estimate |
| 2004 | 3,341,417 | June 30 | INE population estimate |
| 2011 | 3,412,636 | June 30 | INE population estimate |
| 2023 | 3,499,451 | May 31 | Censo 2023 estimated resident population |
Why the Population Series Changes Direction
- The 2025 revision places the maximum population at 3,510,305 in 2020.
- The final Censo 2023 estimate of 3,499,451 is about 10,900 below that revised peak.
- INE projects the national population at about 3.4 million in 2045 and about 3.0 million in 2070 under its long-term assumptions.
Population Projection After the Peak
The projected decline is gradual rather than abrupt. Under the national projection’s assumption of zero external net migration, negative natural change becomes the main force reducing the population over the long term.
| Year | Population | Measure Type | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3,510,305 | Revised estimate | Population peak identified in the 2025 revision |
| 2045 | Approximately 3.4 million | Projection | Gradual decline from the 2020 maximum |
| 2070 | Approximately 3.0 million | Projection | Long-term decline under zero external net migration assumption |
Births Have Been Below Deaths Since 2021
The demographic turning point is clearer in the vital statistics than in the total population alone. Registered deaths exceeded births in 2021, 2022 and 2023, producing natural population decrease in each year.
Natural change measures births minus deaths. It does not include migration, so a negative natural balance does not automatically mean the total population must fall in the same year if positive net migration is large enough.
| Year | Births | Deaths | Natural Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 34,603 | 41,168 | −6,565 | MSP vital statistics via INE |
| 2022 | 32,301 | 39,322 | −7,021 | MSP vital statistics via INE |
| 2023 | 31,385 | 34,678 | −3,293 | MSP vital statistics via INE |
Births and Deaths in Uruguay, 2021–2023
Registered vital events show deaths exceeding births in all three years.
Source: Ministry of Public Health vital statistics published by INE. Natural change is derived as births minus deaths.
How Natural Change Has Shifted
- The natural decrease was 6,565 people in 2021 and 7,021 in 2022.
- The gap narrowed to 3,293 in 2023, but births still remained below deaths.
- INE’s long-term projection indicates that the annual difference between deaths and births could approach 20,000 by the end of the projection period if external net migration is zero.
Low Fertility Is Acting on a Smaller Reproductive-Age Population
Uruguay’s total fertility rate was 1.27 children per woman in 2023. INE’s 2025 projection revision expects the rate to fall to about 1.2 in 2025–2026 before a limited long-term recovery toward about 1.5 by 2070.
Fertility and births are not interchangeable measures. The total fertility rate summarizes current age-specific fertility rates, while the annual birth count also depends on how many women are in the ages where most births occur.
That second component is becoming smaller. INE estimates about 502,000 women aged 20–39 in 2024, with the group projected to decline to about 414,000 in 2045 and 305,000 in 2070.
Why births can remain low: low fertility is operating on a shrinking reproductive-age population. A future rise in the fertility rate would therefore not automatically restore earlier birth totals because the number of women in the main childbearing ages is also projected to be smaller.
| Year | Women Aged 20–39 | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Approximately 502,000 | Estimate |
| 2045 | Approximately 414,000 | Projection |
| 2070 | Approximately 305,000 | Projection |
Women Aged 20–39, 2024–2070
The population in major reproductive ages is projected to contract substantially.
Source: INE Population Estimates and Projections, Revision 2025. Values are approximately stated in the official release.
Motherhood Patterns Have Shifted Across Age Groups
Censo 2023 also shows that women in several age groups had fewer children on average than women of the same ages in 1985. These values are average children per woman within each census age group; they are not total fertility rates.
| Age Group | 1985 | 2023 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25–29 | 1.45 | 0.70 | −0.75 |
| 30–34 | 2.12 | 1.20 | −0.92 |
| 35–39 | 2.55 | 1.60 | −0.95 |
The difference column is calculated from the two published census values. It shows the change in average children already born to women in each age group, not a change in the total fertility rate.
The Age Structure Is Tilting Toward Older Ages
Censo 2023 counted 646,178 people aged 0–14 and 545,301 aged 65 or older. The largest group was ages 35–64, with more than 1.31 million people.
The four broad census age groups already show a relatively narrow younger base. The long-term projection extends that shift as smaller birth cohorts move through the population and older cohorts occupy a larger share of the total.
| Age Group | Population | Published Share | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 646,178 | 19% | 2023 |
| 15–34 | 993,566 | 28% | 2023 |
| 35–64 | 1,314,406 | 38% | 2023 |
| 65+ | 545,301 | 16% | 2023 |
Broad Age Structure of Uruguay, 2023
Population by the age ranges published in the Censo 2023 summary.
Source: INE Censo 2023. This is a broad age structure chart, not a population pyramid.
One in Three Residents Could Be 65 or Older by 2070
INE’s 2025 projection revision places the 65-and-older share at 32.5% by 2070, compared with roughly 16% in the current age structure. The share below age 15 is projected to fall to 11.5%.
The projection also moves the mean age from about 39 years at the beginning of the projection context to nearly 50 by 2070. The result is not simply a larger elderly population; it is a population in which older ages occupy much more of the total while child cohorts become smaller.
| Indicator | Current or Census Reference | 2070 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Population aged 65+ | 16% in Censo 2023, published rounded share | 32.5% |
| Population below age 15 | 19% in Censo 2023, published rounded share | 11.5% |
| Mean age | About 39 years in the projection context | Nearly 50 years |
Ageing and deaths measure different things: a rise in annual deaths does not by itself imply that people are living shorter lives. Death counts can rise while longevity remains high because a larger number of people are reaching older ages.
Migration Can Change the Baseline Population Path
Migration becomes more important once births no longer offset deaths. In simple demographic accounting, total population change reflects natural change plus the migration balance. Sustained positive net migration can therefore reduce or offset natural decrease, while sustained emigration can deepen it.
INE’s 2025 national projection deliberately assumes zero external net migration over the long-term projection horizon. The projected fall toward about 3.0 million people in 2070 should therefore be read as a demographic path under that assumption, not as a migration-neutral certainty about the future.
Intercensal Growth Shows Strong Territorial Redistribution
INE’s 2011–2023 growth accounting separates total population growth from natural growth and calculates an implicit migration balance as the residual between them. At the national level, natural growth exceeded total growth, producing an implicit migration balance of −7,793 over the period. Department-level balances were much larger in both directions.
| Area | Total Population Change | Natural Change | Implicit Migration Balance | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | +86,815 | +94,608 | −7,793 | 2011–2023 |
| Montevideo | −72,590 | +31,822 | −104,412 | 2011–2023 |
| Canelones | +72,199 | +8,965 | +63,234 | 2011–2023 |
| Maldonado | +40,824 | +9,064 | +31,760 | 2011–2023 |
| San José | +9,395 | +1,304 | +8,091 | 2011–2023 |
| Rocha | +7,190 | +660 | +6,530 | 2011–2023 |
How Migration Changes the Territorial Pattern
- Montevideo lost 72,590 people over 2011–2023 despite positive natural growth of 31,822, producing an implicit migration balance of −104,412.
- Canelones gained 72,199 people, including an implicit migration balance of +63,234.
- Maldonado gained 40,824 people, with an implicit migration balance of +31,760.
- The implicit migration balance is a residual in intercensal growth accounting; it is not the same measure as an annual international net migration series.
Population Decline Will Be Uneven Across Uruguay
National population decline does not mean every department follows the same path. INE’s 2024–2045 departmental projection identifies only four departments with population growth: Canelones, Maldonado, San José and Rocha.
Canelones is projected to gain more than 80,000 people and approach 680,000 by 2045. Maldonado is projected to reach about 245,000. Montevideo moves in the opposite direction, with a projected loss of about 143,000 people, or roughly 11.1%.
| Department | 2024–2045 Direction | Published Projection Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canelones | Increase | Gain of more than 80,000; nearly 680,000 residents by 2045 |
| Maldonado | Increase | Approximately 245,000 residents by 2045 |
| San José | Increase | One of four departments projected to grow |
| Rocha | Increase | One of four departments projected to grow |
| Montevideo | Decrease | Loss of approximately 143,000, about −11.1% |
| Treinta y Tres | Decrease | Approximately −11.5% |
| Soriano | Decrease | Approximately −8.1% |
| Lavalleja | Decrease | Approximately −7.7% |
The pattern is better described as demographic redistribution than as uniform national contraction. Population growth remains concentrated in a small group of departments even as the national total turns downward.
The Demographic Shift Reaches Schools, Labour Supply and Care
Registered births fell from 34,603 in 2021 to 31,385 in 2023. Smaller birth cohorts translate into fewer children entering successive school-age groups, although the effect will differ across growing and declining departments.
Persistent low fertility means smaller cohorts eventually enter working ages. The projected contraction of the 20–39 female population is one visible part of the broader change in the size and composition of younger adult cohorts.
A projected 65+ share of 32.5% by 2070 shifts more demographic weight toward health care, long-term care, household support and other services used more intensively at older ages.
With natural change already negative, migration can have a larger effect on the difference between the official zero-net-migration projection and Uruguay’s eventual population path.
Data Sources and Methodology
This profile keeps census-based resident population, revised population estimates, registered vital events, intercensal growth accounting and future projections as distinct statistical measures. Where a value is calculated rather than published directly, the calculation is identified. Approximate projection values remain approximate rather than being converted into false precision.
The 2023 natural-change figures are derived as registered births minus registered deaths. Differences in the children-per-woman table are derived from the two published census values. The migration table uses INE’s implicit migration balance for 2011–2023, calculated within intercensal population accounting; it should not be read as a direct annual international migration series.
| Source | Release or Data Year | Used for | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay National Institute of Statistics, Censo 2023 final results and age-range tabulations | 2023 census; final tabulations maintained through 2026 | Final resident population and broad age structure | Census-based estimated resident population |
| Uruguay National Institute of Statistics, Population Estimates and Projections, Revision 2025 | 2025 revision; estimates and projections through 2070 | 2020 population peak, national projections, fertility path, reproductive-age population, ageing and departmental outlook | Revised estimates and scenario-based projections |
| INE National Statistical Yearbook and Ministry of Public Health vital statistics | 2021–2023 vital events | Registered births, deaths and derived natural change | Registered vital events |
| INE Censo 2023 fertility tabulation by age group | 1985 and 2023 census comparison | Average children per woman at ages 25–29, 30–34 and 35–39 | Census fertility-history indicator |
| INE population growth components by department | 2011–2023 | Total growth, natural growth and implicit migration balance | Intercensal population-growth accounting |
Methodological Safety Note: Censo 2023’s 3,499,451 figure is the final estimated resident population for May 31, 2023 and should not be treated as the same measure as every annual mid-year estimate. The 2020 peak of 3,510,305 comes from INE’s revised population-estimate series. Values for 2045 and 2070 are projections based on assumptions including zero external net migration. Population projections are scenario-based estimates, not guaranteed predictions. Registered births and deaths are vital-event counts; natural change on this page is derived as births minus deaths. The 2011–2023 implicit migration balance is a residual within intercensal growth accounting and is not equivalent to a directly observed annual international net migration figure. Published census age shares are rounded, so displayed percentages may not sum exactly to 100%.
Uruguay Demographic Data Questions
Why is the 2023 census population lower than Uruguay’s 2020 population peak?
The figures refer to different dates and statistical measures. INE’s 2025 revision identifies 3,510,305 in 2020 as the peak of the revised annual estimate series. Censo 2023 gives a final estimated resident population of 3,499,451 for May 31, 2023.
Is Uruguay’s population already declining?
INE’s latest revision places the national peak in 2020 and shows a gradual decline afterward. Births have also been below deaths since 2021, creating negative natural change.
Can migration offset Uruguay’s natural population decrease?
Yes. Positive net migration can partly or fully offset a negative balance between births and deaths. However, INE’s current long-term national projection assumes zero external net migration, so sustained future immigration would produce a different population path from that baseline.
Does a fertility rate of 1.27 mean Uruguay had 1.27 births per woman in 2023?
No. The total fertility rate is a period measure constructed from age-specific fertility rates. Uruguay registered 31,385 births in 2023. The fertility rate and the annual number of births measure different aspects of reproduction.