Oceania · Melanesia
Papua New Guinea Demographics: Young Population, Growth and Urbanization
Papua New Guinea combines fast population growth with a young age structure, fertility above the broad replacement-level benchmark and a population that remains predominantly rural. The 2024 National Population Census counted 10,185,363 people, 40% more than in 2011, while newer international estimates used for age structure, fertility and urbanization describe a population that is still expanding but gradually changing.
Primary population counts use the Papua New Guinea National Statistical Office 2024 National Population Census Final Figures. Age and fertility estimates use United Nations World Population Prospects 2024-based data, while the latest urbanization measure uses World Urbanization Prospects 2025 data reported by the World Bank.
Core Demographic Indicators
Why Papua New Guinea Has More Than One Current Population Number
The 2024 census is now the official census baseline, but other population numbers remain visible in national and international datasets. They measure different things. A census count, a modelled population estimate and a mid-year estimate should not be treated as interchangeable observations.
| Population Measure | Population | Reference Year | Measure Type | Source | Best Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Population Estimate | 11,781,559 | 2021 | Modelled estimate | PNG NSO and UNFPA | WorldPop-based estimate produced between censuses |
| National Population Census | 10,185,363 | 2024 | Final census count | PNG National Statistical Office | People counted during the 2024 census operation |
| UN mid-year population | 10.8 million | 2025 | Mid-year estimate | UN World Population Prospects 2024 revision via UNFPA | International demographic estimate for mid-year comparison |
Differences Between Population Measures
- The 2021 modelled estimate of 11,781,559 was 1,596,196 higher than the later 2024 census count, even though its reference year was three years earlier.
- This difference does not demonstrate a population decline. The figures come from different statistical methods and coverage systems.
- The 2024 census reference night was 16 June 2024, while enumeration continued into October because of communication and transport constraints.
- The 2025 UN figure is a mid-year estimate rather than another census result.
The 2024 Census Shows 40% Growth Since 2011
The census count rose from 7,275,324 in 2011 to 10,185,363 in 2024. The increase was 2,910,039 people, or 40%, across the 13-year census interval. The National Statistical Office reports an average annual growth rate of 2.6% for 2011–2024.
Earlier census figures also show long-run expansion. Papua New Guinea moved from about 2.18 million people in 1966 to more than 5.19 million in 2000 before passing 10 million in the latest count.
| Census Year | Population | Increase from Previous Count | Years Since Previous Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | 2,184,991 | — | — |
| 1971 | 2,489,935 | 304,944 | 5 |
| 1980 | 3,010,727 | 520,792 | 9 |
| 1990 | 3,761,954 | 751,227 | 10 |
| 2000 | 5,190,786 | 1,428,832 | 10 |
| 2011 | 7,275,324 | 2,084,538 | 11 |
| 2024 | 10,185,363 | 2,910,039 | 13 |
Papua New Guinea Census Population, 1966–2024
Official population counts reported in the 2024 census final figures
Papua New Guinea National Statistical Office, 2024 National Population Census Final Figures. Census intervals are not equal in length.
Census coverage matters: the National Statistical Office cautions that comparisons across older census periods can be affected by differences in undercounting and improvements in census coverage. The 2.6% figure for 2011–2024 is the published average annual growth rate for the latest census interval.
Growth Is Fastest in the Southern Region
Population growth is not evenly distributed across Papua New Guinea. The Southern Region recorded the highest average annual rate between the 2011 and 2024 censuses at 3.6%. Momase followed at 3.0%, while the Highlands recorded 1.9% despite remaining the country’s largest region by population.
| Region | 2024 Population | Average Annual Growth, 2011–2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Southern | 2,320,205 | 3.6% |
| Highlands | 3,634,114 | 1.9% |
| Momase | 2,753,211 | 3.0% |
| Islands | 1,477,833 | 2.3% |
| Papua New Guinea | 10,185,363 | 2.6% |
Regional Population Growth, 2011–2024
Average annual census-to-census growth by region
Papua New Guinea National Statistical Office, 2024 National Population Census Final Figures.
Where Population Growth Is Concentrated
- The Highlands contained 3,634,114 people in 2024, or more than any other region, but recorded the lowest regional growth rate at 1.9%.
- Southern had 2,320,205 people and the fastest regional growth rate at 3.6%.
- Momase combined a population of 2,753,211 with 3.0% average annual growth.
National Capital District Recorded the Fastest Provincial Growth
Provincial results reveal a wider spread than the four regional averages. National Capital District rose from 364,125 people in 2011 to 756,754 in 2024, producing the highest published average annual growth rate at 5.7%. Madang followed at 3.4%. At the lower end, Enga recorded 1.0% and Manus 1.1%.
Morobe remained the largest province-level area in the final census figures with 997,545 people. Eastern Highlands had 800,072 and Madang 761,154. Manus was the smallest at 69,560.
| Province | 2011 Census | 2024 Census | Population Increase | Average Annual Growth | Sex Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western | 201,351 | 300,019 | 98,668 | 3.1% | 109 |
| Gulf | 158,197 | 203,545 | 45,348 | 2.0% | 111 |
| Central | 269,756 | 373,779 | 104,023 | 2.5% | 114 |
| National Capital District | 364,125 | 756,754 | 392,629 | 5.7% | 114 |
| Milne Bay | 276,512 | 412,158 | 135,646 | 3.1% | 111 |
| Northern | 186,309 | 273,950 | 87,641 | 3.0% | 112 |
| Southern Highlands | 510,245 | 602,085 | 91,840 | 1.3% | 107 |
| Enga | 432,045 | 489,971 | 57,926 | 1.0% | 110 |
| Western Highlands | 362,850 | 462,566 | 99,716 | 1.9% | 106 |
| Chimbu | 376,473 | 458,406 | 81,933 | 1.5% | 112 |
| Eastern Highlands | 579,825 | 800,072 | 220,247 | 2.5% | 109 |
| Hela | 249,449 | 365,806 | 116,357 | 3.0% | 114 |
| Jiwaka | 343,987 | 455,208 | 111,221 | 2.2% | 109 |
| Morobe | 674,810 | 997,545 | 322,735 | 3.0% | 112 |
| Madang | 493,906 | 761,154 | 267,248 | 3.4% | 112 |
| East Sepik | 450,530 | 631,791 | 181,261 | 2.6% | 104 |
| West Sepik | 248,411 | 362,721 | 114,310 | 2.9% | 109 |
| Manus | 60,485 | 69,560 | 9,075 | 1.1% | 109 |
| New Ireland | 194,067 | 237,780 | 43,713 | 1.6% | 112 |
| East New Britain | 328,369 | 434,757 | 106,388 | 2.2% | 108 |
| West New Britain | 264,264 | 368,643 | 104,379 | 2.6% | 113 |
| Autonomous Region of Bougainville | 249,358 | 367,093 | 117,735 | 3.0% | 107 |
The national census also counted more males than females: 5,336,546 males and 4,848,817 females, equivalent to approximately 110 males per 100 females. Every province-level area recorded a male majority in the published final figures, although the ratio ranged from 104 in East Sepik to 114 in Central, Hela and National Capital District.
One-Third of the Population Is Under Age 15
The latest internationally comparable age structure remains young. UN World Population Prospects 2024-based estimates for 2025 place 33.1% of the population at ages 0–14, 63.3% at ages 15–64 and only 3.6% at age 65 or older.
This age distribution helps explain why total population can continue growing while fertility falls. Large cohorts of children and young adults move into reproductive and working ages over time, creating population momentum even when births per woman decline.
| Age Group | Share of Population | Year | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 33.1% | 2025 | UN mid-year age-structure estimate |
| 15–64 | 63.3% | 2025 | UN mid-year age-structure estimate |
| 65+ | 3.6% | 2025 | UN mid-year age-structure estimate |
Broad Age Structure in 2025
Share of the population in three broad age groups
UNFPA calculation based on United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 revision. Values refer to the 2025 estimated age structure.
Age-data coverage: this is a broad age-structure chart, not a full population pyramid. The 2024 Census Final Figures publication states that detailed demographic results will be released progressively. The age shares here therefore use the UN WPP-based 2025 series rather than unpublished 2024 census age-by-sex tables.
Fertility Has Fallen, but Remains Above Replacement Level
Papua New Guinea’s 2016–18 Demographic and Health Survey measured a total fertility rate of 4.2 children per woman, down slightly from 4.4 reported in the 2006 DHS. The UN World Population Prospects-based series places total fertility at about 3.1 births per woman in 2024.
The newer estimate remains above 2.1 births per woman, which is commonly used as a broad replacement-level benchmark in low-mortality populations. Replacement fertility is not a fixed national threshold, and the benchmark should not be interpreted as a forecast of when population growth will stop.
| Reference Period | Total Fertility Rate | Measure Type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 4.4 births per woman | DHS survey estimate | Papua New Guinea Demographic and Health Survey 2006 |
| 2016–18 | 4.2 births per woman | DHS survey estimate | Papua New Guinea Demographic and Health Survey 2016–18 |
| 2024 | 3.1 births per woman | Modelled annual estimate | UN World Population Prospects 2024 revision via World Bank |
Why the Fertility Values Should Not Be Joined as One Survey Series
- The 2006 and 2016–18 values come from national household surveys.
- The 2024 value comes from the UN demographic estimation series rather than a new PNG household survey.
- All three values measure total fertility rate, but their estimation methods differ, so the table is better read as evidence of the broad direction than as three identical observations from one dataset.
Urbanization Remains Low Under the Latest Measure
World Urbanization Prospects 2025 data reported by the World Bank place Papua New Guinea’s urban population at about 1.70 million people in 2025, equal to 15.78% of the total population. The corresponding rural share is about 84.22%.
The low national urban share coexists with rapid growth in National Capital District. The 2024 census counted 756,754 people in NCD, more than twice its 2011 count, and reported a density of 2,653 people per square kilometre. NCD should not be treated as equivalent to the country’s total urban population: it is an administrative census area, while the urban share comes from an international urbanization dataset.
| Indicator | Value | Year | Measure Type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urban population | 1,698,345 | 2025 | Urban population estimate | World Bank / World Urbanization Prospects 2025 |
| Urban population share | 15.78% | 2025 | Urban share estimate | World Bank / World Urbanization Prospects 2025 |
| Rural population share | 84.22% | 2025 | Derived as 100% minus urban share | Derived from World Bank urban share |
| National Capital District population | 756,754 | 2024 | Final census count | PNG National Statistical Office |
| National Capital District density | 2,653 people/km² | 2024 | Census population density | PNG National Statistical Office |
Urban-series warning: World Urbanization Prospects 2025 introduced a harmonized geospatial approach to identifying cities and towns. Urban percentages from earlier WUP releases can therefore differ because of methodology as well as demographic change. Older and newer urban shares should not be stitched into a trend without checking the definition used in each release.
Population Growth, Fertility and Urbanization Are Moving at Different Speeds
The census population increased by 2.91 million between 2011 and 2024, with average annual growth of 2.6%.
About one-third of the 2025 estimated population is under age 15, while only 3.6% is age 65 or older.
The latest UN estimate is below the 4.2 births per woman measured in the 2016–18 DHS, but remains above the broad replacement benchmark.
Only 15.78% of the population is classified as urban in the 2025 WUP-based measure, despite very fast census growth in National Capital District.
Data Sources and Methodology
The population history, 2024 national total, regional totals, provincial counts, census growth rates, sex ratios and census density figures use the final 2024 National Population Census publication. The historical increases shown in the census table and provincial population-increase column are derived by subtracting the earlier count from the later count; no missing census years have been interpolated.
Age structure and the 2025 international population estimate use UN World Population Prospects 2024-based data. The 2024 fertility estimate also comes from the UN WPP series, while earlier fertility values use PNG Demographic and Health Surveys. Urbanization uses the newer World Urbanization Prospects 2025 series reported by the World Bank. These datasets are kept separate where their statistical basis differs.
| Source | Release or Data Year | Used for | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Papua New Guinea National Statistical Office, 2024 National Population Census Final Figures | 2025 release · 2024 census | National and provincial population, historical census counts, growth rates, sex ratios, density | Final census count and census-derived indicators |
| PNG National Statistical Office and UNFPA, National Population Estimate 2021 | 2023 release · 2021 estimate | Comparison of census count with the earlier modelled population estimate | WorldPop-based modelled estimate |
| UNFPA World Population Dashboard using UN World Population Prospects 2024 revision | 2025 indicators | Mid-year population context and broad age structure | Modelled mid-year demographic estimate |
| World Bank World Development Indicators using UN World Population Prospects | 2024 | Latest total fertility rate | Modelled fertility estimate |
| Papua New Guinea Demographic and Health Surveys | 2006 and 2016–18 | Earlier total fertility rate observations | Household survey estimates |
| World Bank Data360 and World Development Indicators using World Urbanization Prospects 2025 | 2025 | Urban population and urban population share | Urbanization estimate |
Methodological Safety Note: Papua New Guinea’s 2024 figure of 10,185,363 is a final census count, while the 2021 modelled population estimate and 2025 UN mid-year estimate are separate statistical products. They must not be interpreted as a single annual population series. Detailed age-by-sex results from the 2024 census were not included in the initial final-figures publication, so the age structure on this page uses UN WPP-based estimates. Fertility survey observations and UN modelled fertility estimates are identified separately. The 84.22% rural share is a derived calculation from the 2025 urban share, and provincial population increases are derived from the published 2011 and 2024 census counts.