Western Asia · Arabian Peninsula
Oman Demographics: Migration and the Changing Population Structure
Oman’s population is shaped by two different demographic systems: sustained natural increase among Omani citizens and a large expatriate population that changes more quickly with employment, residence and registration patterns. At the end of May 2026, expatriates represented 43.22% of the country’s registered population.
Primary data sources: Oman’s National Centre for Statistics and Information, World Bank Open Data and United Nations World Population Prospects 2024.
Core Demographic Indicators
The Expatriate Population Changes Faster Than the Citizen Population
Oman’s total population cannot be interpreted from births and deaths alone. The Omani population usually changes gradually, while the registered expatriate population can rise or fall within a single month. Employment demand, residence status, departures and administrative registration all influence the expatriate count.
Between the end of December 2025 and the end of May 2026, the registered population increased by 28,956. The Omani population rose by 20,072, while the expatriate population increased by 8,884. The cumulative increase conceals monthly expatriate declines in January and March.
| Reference Month | Total Registered Population | Omani Population | Expatriate Population | Monthly Omani Change | Monthly Expatriate Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2025 | 5,359,557 | 3,039,349 | 2,320,208 | Baseline | Baseline |
| January 2026 | 5,360,822 | 3,044,049 | 2,316,773 | +4,700 | −3,435 |
| February 2026 | 5,368,516 | 3,047,100 | 2,321,416 | +3,051 | +4,643 |
| March 2026 | 5,368,120 | 3,051,165 | 2,316,955 | +4,065 | −4,461 |
| April 2026 | 5,374,651 | 3,055,417 | 2,319,234 | +4,252 | +2,279 |
| May 2026 | 5,388,513 | 3,059,421 | 2,329,092 | +4,004 | +9,858 |
Registered Population by Nationality, December 2025–May 2026
Monthly registered population counts show a steadily rising Omani series and a more variable expatriate series.
Source: National Centre for Statistics and Information, Monthly Statistical Bulletin. Values refer to registered population at the end of each month.
How the Two Population Series Moved Differently
- The Omani count increased in every month shown, with monthly additions ranging from 3,051 to 4,700.
- The expatriate count declined by 3,435 in January and by 4,461 in March before increasing by 9,858 in May.
- The total population fell by 396 in March even though the Omani population increased, because the expatriate decline was larger.
- Monthly changes in the expatriate stock should not be labelled as net migration because registration changes and residence-status coverage may also affect the series.
Muscat, Dhofar and Al Wusta Have Expatriate Majorities
Oman’s national citizenship balance conceals large regional differences. Expatriates formed 61.0% of Muscat’s registered population at the end of May 2026. They also formed majorities in Dhofar and Al Wusta, while Omani citizens accounted for more than 70% of the population in Ad Dakhliyah and Ad Dhahirah.
These figures describe registered residents by governorate. They do not measure ethnicity, country of birth or permanent settlement.
| Governorate | Total Population | Omani Population | Expatriate Population | Omani Share | Expatriate Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muscat | 1,538,312 | 600,144 | 938,168 | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| Dhofar | 535,623 | 246,858 | 288,765 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Musandam | 55,802 | 36,691 | 19,111 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| Al Buraymi | 135,629 | 77,178 | 58,451 | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| Ad Dakhliyah | 574,354 | 413,743 | 160,611 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| Al Batinah North | 945,647 | 612,748 | 332,899 | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| Al Batinah South | 589,152 | 391,575 | 197,577 | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| Ash Sharqiyah South | 377,701 | 253,785 | 123,916 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| Ash Sharqiyah North | 322,914 | 217,692 | 105,222 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| Ad Dhahirah | 248,813 | 181,466 | 67,347 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
| Al Wusta | 64,566 | 27,541 | 37,025 | 42.7% | 57.3% |
Expatriate Share by Governorate
The expatriate share exceeds 50% in Muscat, Al Wusta and Dhofar.
Source: National Centre for Statistics and Information. Shares are derived from end-May 2026 registered population counts.
Where the Citizenship Balance Shifts
- Muscat contained 938,168 expatriates, equivalent to 61.0% of the governorate’s registered population.
- Al Wusta had a small total population of 64,566, but expatriates formed 57.3% of its residents.
- Ad Dhahirah recorded the lowest expatriate share among the governorates shown, at 27.1%.
- Al Batinah North had the second-largest total population after Muscat, but Omani citizens remained the majority at 64.8%.
Natural Increase Remains Positive but Does Not Explain Every Monthly Change
Oman recorded 73,793 births and 9,061 deaths in 2025, producing a natural increase of 64,732. Omani citizens accounted for most registered births and most of the resulting natural increase.
Positive natural increase does not prevent the total registered population from falling in an individual month. A decline in the expatriate population can outweigh the gradual rise in the citizen population, as occurred in March 2026.
| Period and Population Group | Births | Deaths | Natural Increase | Data Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · Total | 73,793 | 9,061 | 64,732 | Provisional registered events |
| 2025 · Omani | 63,187 | 7,291 | 55,896 | Provisional registered events |
| 2025 · Expatriate | 10,606 | 1,770 | 8,836 | Provisional registered events |
| January–May 2026 · Total | 26,845 | 3,854 | 22,991 | Provisional partial-year data |
| January–May 2026 · Omani | 23,870 | 3,056 | 20,814 | Provisional partial-year data |
| January–May 2026 · Expatriate | 2,975 | 798 | 2,177 | Provisional partial-year data |
Natural change and migration are different measures: Natural increase is calculated as registered births minus registered deaths. It does not include arrivals, departures, residence cancellations or other changes affecting the expatriate register.
A Large Working-Age Majority Shapes the National Age Profile
International age estimates place 24% of Oman’s population below age 15 and 3% at age 65 or older in 2025. The remaining share, approximately 73%, was in the broad working-age range of 15–64.
The large working-age share reflects both Oman’s own age structure and the concentration of expatriate workers in adult ages. It should not be interpreted as the age profile of Omani citizens alone. A separate citizen-only age distribution would be required to measure the age structure of the national population.
| Age Group | Share of Population | Reference Year | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–14 | 24% | 2025 | International mid-year estimate |
| 15–64 | Approximately 73% | 2025 | Derived from rounded age shares |
| 65+ | 3% | 2025 | International mid-year estimate |
Broad Age Structure, 2025
The 15–64 population forms the largest broad age group.
Source: World Bank Open Data. The 15–64 share is derived as 100% minus the published rounded shares for ages 0–14 and 65+.
Age-data limitation: These are three broad age groups, not a population pyramid. A full pyramid requires detailed five-year age groups separated by sex and based on a single reference year.
Fertility Has Fallen While Most Registered Births Remain Omani
Oman’s total fertility rate was estimated at 2.5 births per woman in 2024. The rate is far below the levels recorded during Oman’s earlier period of rapid natural population growth, but it remained above the broad replacement-level benchmark of approximately 2.1 births per woman.
A total fertility rate is a period measure based on age-specific birth rates. It is not the same as the annual number of births. The 63,187 registered Omani births recorded in 2025 accounted for 85.6% of all registered births, but this percentage should not be treated as a comparison of fertility rates between Omanis and expatriates because the two populations have different age, sex and household structures.
| Indicator | Value | Year | Measure Type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total fertility rate | 2.5 births per woman | 2024 | Modelled period fertility rate | World Bank Open Data |
| Broad replacement-level benchmark | Approximately 2.1 births per woman | Conceptual benchmark | General demographic reference | Demographic convention |
| Total registered births | 73,793 | 2025 | Provisional registered events | NCSI |
| Registered Omani births | 63,187 | 2025 | Provisional registered events | NCSI |
| Omani share of registered births | 85.6% | 2025 | Derived share of birth count | Calculated from NCSI counts |
| Registered expatriate births | 10,606 | 2025 | Provisional registered events | NCSI |
| Expatriate share of registered births | 14.4% | 2025 | Derived share of birth count | Calculated from NCSI counts |
Fertility interpretation: The broad 2.1 replacement benchmark is not an exact national threshold. Mortality, sex ratios at birth and migration can alter the fertility level associated with long-term population replacement.
Migration Assumptions Produce Widely Different Long-Range Paths
Oman’s long-range population path is unusually sensitive to migration assumptions. In the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 medium scenario, the population reaches approximately 12.1 million in 2100. Under the zero-migration variant, the corresponding total is approximately 6.3 million.
The difference between the two variants is about 5.76 million people. It does not represent a forecast of how many migrants will arrive. It shows how strongly the modelled population path changes when the migration assumption is altered while other demographic assumptions continue to operate.
| Projection Measure | Projected Population | Projection Year | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medium scenario | 12,094,996 | 2100 | Central UN scenario using assumed future fertility, mortality and migration |
| Zero-migration variant | 6,330,653 | 2100 | Variant in which future international migration is set to zero |
| Lower 95% prediction interval | 4,406,655 | 2100 | Lower bound of the modelled uncertainty interval |
| Upper 95% prediction interval | 26,831,454 | 2100 | Upper bound of the modelled uncertainty interval |
UN 2100 Population Variants
The medium scenario and zero-migration variant separate sharply over the long projection horizon.
Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024. Projected values are scenario-based estimates rather than guaranteed predictions.
Limits of the Projection
- The medium scenario is approximately 5.76 million higher than the zero-migration variant in 2100.
- The 95% prediction interval extends from about 4.4 million to 26.8 million, reflecting wide uncertainty over the remaining decades of the century.
- Neither scenario determines how the future population would be divided between Omani citizens and expatriates.
- Economic conditions, labor policy, residence rules, fertility and mortality can all depart from the assumptions used in the projection model.
How the Main Demographic Measures Fit Together
Monthly changes are strongly affected by the expatriate register. A fall in the expatriate count can temporarily offset continued growth in the Omani population.
Births substantially exceeded deaths in the Omani population during 2025, producing a natural increase of 55,896 registered events.
The total population has a large working-age majority, but that national measure includes a substantial adult expatriate workforce.
Expatriates form majorities in Muscat, Dhofar and Al Wusta, while several interior and northern governorates retain larger Omani majorities.
Data Sources and Methodology
The page combines Oman’s administrative population and vital-event statistics with internationally comparable demographic indicators and United Nations projection scenarios. These data series use different reference dates and population concepts, so values from separate sources are not treated as interchangeable.
Omani and expatriate shares were calculated from official registered population counts. Monthly changes were calculated by subtracting the previous month’s count. Natural increase was calculated as births minus deaths. The broad 15–64 share was calculated as 100% minus the published rounded shares for ages 0–14 and 65+.
| Source | Release or Data Year | Used For | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Centre for Statistics and Information | Monthly Statistical Bulletin · June 2026 | Registered population by nationality and governorate; monthly population series; registered births and deaths | Administrative registered population and provisional vital events |
| World Bank Open Data | 2024–2025 indicator years | Total fertility rate, broad age shares, urban population share and life expectancy | Internationally harmonized estimates based on official and UN datasets |
| United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 | Projection year 2100 | Medium projection, zero-migration variant and 95% prediction interval | Scenario-based population projection |
| Derived calculations | Calculated from the listed source years | Citizenship shares, monthly changes, natural increase, birth shares and broad working-age share | Arithmetic calculations without interpolation |
Methodological Safety Note: NCSI figures describe the registered population at the end of a stated month and should not be equated with an international mid-year population estimate. The registered expatriate population is not the same as net migration, immigration or the foreign-born population. Birth and death data are provisional registered events and exclude events recorded abroad. The 15–64 age share is an approximate residual derived from rounded published percentages. United Nations projections are conditional scenarios whose results depend on future fertility, mortality and migration assumptions.