Oceania · Aotearoa New Zealand
New Zealand Demographics: Population Growth, Migration, Fertility and Māori Age Structure
New Zealand’s provisional estimated resident population reached 5,361,300 at 31 March 2026. The population grew by 43,500 over the preceding year, with net migration contributing 56% of the increase. The total fertility rate fell to 1.53 births per woman in the year ended March 2026, while the Māori ethnic population retained a much younger age structure than the national population.
Data providers: Stats NZ national population estimates, international migration statistics, births and deaths statistics, Māori population estimates, and 2023 Census summaries. The March population series is reproduced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from Stats NZ.
Core Demographic Indicators
Population Growth Swung Sharply After 2020
Between March 2015 and March 2026, the estimated resident population rose by 769,400, from 4,591,900 to 5,361,300. The annual change narrowed to 16,100 in 2021 and turned slightly negative in 2022. It then reached 117,200 in 2024 before slowing to 34,700 in 2025 and rising to 43,500 in 2026.
| Reference date | Estimated resident population | Annual change | Annual change % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 March 2015 | 4,591,900 | — | — |
| 31 March 2016 | 4,695,000 | +103,100 | +2.25% |
| 31 March 2017 | 4,796,700 | +101,700 | +2.17% |
| 31 March 2018 | 4,886,100 | +89,400 | +1.86% |
| 31 March 2019 | 4,958,700 | +72,600 | +1.49% |
| 31 March 2020 | 5,067,300 | +108,600 | +2.19% |
| 31 March 2021 | 5,083,400 | +16,100 | +0.32% |
| 31 March 2022 | 5,081,800 | −1,600 | −0.03% |
| 31 March 2023 | 5,165,900 | +84,100 | +1.65% |
| 31 March 2024 | 5,283,100 | +117,200 | +2.27% |
| 31 March 2025 | 5,317,800 | +34,700 | +0.66% |
| 31 March 2026 | 5,361,300 | +43,500 | +0.82% |
Source: Stats NZ estimated resident population series, reproduced in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand M12 table. Annual changes are derived from consecutive March estimates.
The Long Rise Includes a Brief Population Dip
Estimated Resident Population, 2015–2026
Population at 31 March in each year
Source: Stats NZ estimated resident population series, reproduced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Where the Growth Rate Changed
- The March 2022 estimate was 1,600 below the March 2021 estimate, the only decline in this series.
- The largest annual increase was 117,200 in the March 2024 year, equal to 2.27%.
- Growth was 0.82% in the March 2026 year, above 0.66% in 2025 but well below the 2024 rate.
Migration Accounts for 56% of the Latest Annual Increase
The March 2026 population estimate separates the annual increase into two components. Net migration added about 24,300 people, while natural increase added about 19,200. Migration therefore contributed more than half of the 43,500 increase.
Population balance: population change equals natural increase plus net migration. Natural increase is the difference between births and deaths.
| Component | People added | Share of growth | Reference period | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net migration | +24,300 | 56% | Year ended March 2026 | Population-change component |
| Natural increase | +19,200 | 44% | Year ended March 2026 | Population-change component |
| Total population increase | +43,500 | 100% | Year ended March 2026 | Estimated resident population change |
Source: Stats NZ, National population estimates at 31 March 2026. Component values are rounded.
The Growth Balance Favors Migration
Components of Population Growth
Estimated contribution to the year ended March 2026
Source: Stats NZ national population estimates. Values are rounded.
Positive Net Migration Masks a Citizen Loss
In the year ended May 2026, New Zealand recorded 130,700 migrant arrivals and 111,900 migrant departures, producing a provisional net gain of 18,800. The total combines a net loss of 36,800 New Zealand citizens with a net gain of 55,600 non-New Zealand citizens.
| Population group | Migrant arrivals | Migrant departures | Net migration | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All migrants | 130,700 | 111,900 | +18,800 | Provisional |
| New Zealand citizens | 26,200 | 63,000 | −36,800 | Provisional |
| Non-New Zealand citizens | 104,500 | 48,900 | +55,600 | Provisional |
Source: Stats NZ, International migration: May 2026. Values cover the year ended May 2026 and are outcomes-based provisional estimates.
Citizenship Flows Pull in Opposite Directions
Net Migration by Citizenship
Provisional migration balance in the year ended May 2026
Source: Stats NZ international migration statistics.
Why the Net Total Needs Context
- The non-citizen net gain of 55,600 was larger than the national net gain because it was partly offset by the citizen loss.
- Arrivals and departures together represented 242,600 migrant movements; net migration is the difference between the two flows.
- The newest outcomes-based estimates remain open to revision until sufficient travel history is available under the 12/16-month rule.
Lower Births Narrow the Natural Increase
Registered live births fell by 1,512 between the March 2025 and March 2026 annual periods, while registered deaths rose by 174. The resulting natural increase declined from 20,892 to 19,206. The total fertility rate also moved down from 1.58 to 1.53 births per woman.
| Indicator | Year ended March 2025 | Year ended March 2026 | Absolute change | Percentage change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered live births | 58,539 | 57,027 | −1,512 | −2.6% |
| Registered deaths | 37,647 | 37,821 | +174 | +0.5% |
| Natural increase | 20,892 | 19,206 | −1,686 | −8.1% |
| Total fertility rate | 1.58 | 1.53 | −0.05 | −3.2% |
Source: Stats NZ births and deaths releases. Natural increase in this table is derived as registered births minus registered deaths.
Births Fell While Deaths Edged Up
Registered Births and Deaths
Annual registration totals for the March 2025 and March 2026 years
Source: Stats NZ births and deaths statistics.
How Natural Change Shifted
- The birth-death gap narrowed by 1,686 people, an 8.1% reduction from the preceding annual period.
- Births supplied most of the change: they fell 2.6%, while deaths rose 0.5%.
- These are registration-based counts; the national population estimate uses an occurrence-based component for its population balance.
Fertility Became More Concentrated in the Early Thirties
In 1995, the highest age-specific fertility rate was among women aged 25–29, at 123.36 births per 1,000 women. By 2025, the highest rate was among women aged 30–34, at 102.70. Rates were lower than in 1995 at every age below 35, while the rates for ages 35–39 and 40–44 were higher.
| Age group | 1995 rate | 2025 rate | Absolute change | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–14 | 0.29 | 0.11 | −0.18 | Lower in 2025 |
| 15–19 | 33.39 | 9.09 | −24.30 | Lower in 2025 |
| 20–24 | 83.01 | 42.08 | −40.93 | Lower in 2025 |
| 25–29 | 123.36 | 81.63 | −41.73 | Lower in 2025 |
| 30–34 | 106.15 | 102.70 | −3.45 | Lower in 2025 |
| 35–39 | 43.50 | 61.72 | +18.22 | Higher in 2025 |
| 40–44 | 7.19 | 13.73 | +6.54 | Higher in 2025 |
| 45 and over | 0.37 | 1.02 | +0.65 | Higher in 2025 |
Source: Stats NZ age-specific fertility rates. Rates are live births per 1,000 mean estimated women in each age group. The final group includes births to women aged 45 and over, using women aged 45–49 as the denominator.
The Fertility Peak Moved to Ages 30–34
Age-Specific Fertility Rates, 1995 and 2025
Live births per 1,000 women in each age group
Source: Stats NZ age-specific fertility dataset.
Where the Fertility Profile Changed
- The rate for ages 15–19 fell from 33.39 to 9.09 births per 1,000 women.
- The rate for ages 25–29 fell by 41.73, while the rate for ages 30–34 declined by only 3.45.
- The rate for ages 35–39 rose from 43.50 to 61.72, but later childbearing did not prevent the total fertility rate from remaining low.
The Māori Population Is Younger Than the National Population
The provisionally estimated Māori ethnic population was 932,400 for the mean year ended December 2025, including about 463,700 males and 468,800 females. In the 2023 Census, the median age of the Māori ethnic group was 26.8 years, compared with 38.1 years for the total New Zealand population.
| Measure | Māori value | Comparator | Reference period | Population basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Māori ethnic population | 932,400 | — | Mean 2025 | Provisional estimated resident population |
| Median age | 26.8 years | New Zealand total: 38.1 years | 2023 Census | Census usually resident population |
| Male median age | 26.5 years | Female Māori median: 28.5 years | Mean 2025 | Provisional Māori ethnic estimate |
| Aged 0–14 | 28.3% | — | Mean 2025 | Derived from rounded five-year estimates |
| Aged 15–64 | 63.6% | — | Mean 2025 | Derived from rounded five-year estimates |
| Aged 65 and over | 8.0% | — | Mean 2025 | Derived from rounded five-year estimates |
Ethnicity measure: Māori ethnicity is based on self-identification and is not identical to Māori descent. A person may identify with Māori and one or more other ethnicities, so ethnic population totals are not mutually exclusive.
Māori Age-Sex Counts Show a Wide Youth Base
The largest five-year group in the 2025 Māori estimate was ages 15–19, with 91,780 people based on the rounded male and female counts. Male counts were slightly higher through ages 20–24. Female counts were higher from ages 25–29 onward, and the difference widened across older age groups.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Males per 100 females |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 44,780 | 42,080 | 86,860 | 106.4 |
| 5–9 | 44,970 | 42,330 | 87,300 | 106.2 |
| 10–14 | 46,270 | 43,870 | 90,140 | 105.5 |
| 15–19 | 47,060 | 44,720 | 91,780 | 105.2 |
| 20–24 | 37,950 | 37,320 | 75,270 | 101.7 |
| 25–29 | 34,230 | 34,300 | 68,530 | 99.8 |
| 30–34 | 33,380 | 34,150 | 67,530 | 97.7 |
| 35–39 | 29,020 | 30,740 | 59,760 | 94.4 |
| 40–44 | 24,170 | 25,420 | 49,590 | 95.1 |
| 45–49 | 22,640 | 24,170 | 46,810 | 93.7 |
| 50–54 | 23,670 | 25,280 | 48,950 | 93.6 |
| 55–59 | 21,450 | 22,840 | 44,290 | 93.9 |
| 60–64 | 19,570 | 21,270 | 40,840 | 92.0 |
| 65–69 | 14,700 | 16,390 | 31,090 | 89.7 |
| 70–74 | 9,600 | 10,940 | 20,540 | 87.8 |
| 75–79 | 5,810 | 6,820 | 12,630 | 85.2 |
| 80–84 | 2,810 | 3,550 | 6,360 | 79.2 |
| 85–89 | 1,220 | 1,800 | 3,020 | 67.8 |
| 90+ | 380 | 770 | 1,150 | 49.4 |
Source: Stats NZ Māori population estimates, mean 2025. Age-sex cells are rounded to the nearest 10; row totals and sex ratios are derived from the displayed cells.
The Sex Balance Reverses in the Late Twenties
Māori Population by Age and Sex
Mean estimated resident population in 2025
Source: Stats NZ Māori population estimates. Counts are rounded to the nearest 10.
Where the Sex Balance Changes
- Ages 20–24 had 101.7 males per 100 females; the ratio moved below 100 at ages 25–29.
- At ages 65–69, the ratio was 89.7 males per 100 females.
- The 90-and-over group contained about 380 males and 770 females, a ratio of 49.4 males per 100 females.
Data Sources and Methodology
The indicators retain their official reference periods rather than being forced into a common date. March-to-March population changes, percentage changes, registered natural increase, broad Māori age shares, and age-specific sex ratios are derived from the published values. No missing years or age groups are interpolated.
| Source | Release or data year | Used for | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stats NZ National population estimates | At 31 March 2026 | Current population, annual growth, sex totals, median ages, and growth components | Provisional estimated resident population |
| Stats NZ estimated resident population series, reproduced in Reserve Bank of New Zealand M12 | March 2015–March 2026 | Population path and derived annual changes | Quarterly estimated resident population |
| Stats NZ International migration | Year ended May 2026 | Arrivals, departures, and net migration by citizenship | Provisional outcomes-based migration estimate |
| Stats NZ Births and deaths | Years ended March 2025 and March 2026 | Registered births, deaths, natural increase, and total fertility rate | Registered vital events and period fertility rate |
| Stats NZ age-specific fertility dataset, accessed through a Figure.NZ extract | 1995 and 2025 | Fertility timing by five-year age group | Live births per 1,000 mean estimated women |
| Stats NZ Māori population estimates, accessed through a Figure.NZ extract | Mean year ended December 2025 | Māori population total, sex totals, median ages, and detailed age-sex structure | Provisional Māori ethnic estimated resident population |
| Stats NZ 2023 Census place and ethnic group summaries | 2023 Census | Māori and total New Zealand median-age comparison | Census usually resident population |
National population estimates are stocks measured at a reference date. Birth and death statistics are registration totals for a 12-month period. Migration statistics classify people from observed travel behaviour under the 12/16-month rule. Māori population estimates update a census-based ethnic population for births, deaths, migration, and estimated movement between ethnic identifications.
Methodological Safety Note: The March 2026 population balance and the May 2026 migration release cover different annual periods. The 19,206 natural increase in the vital-events table is derived from registered births and deaths, while the national population estimate uses an occurrence-based component rounded to 19,200. Migration values are provisional and may be revised as travel histories mature. The 2023 Census median-age comparison and the 2025 Māori estimates are different measures from different reference periods. Māori ethnicity allows multiple identification and should not be added to other ethnic populations to produce a national total.