Oceania · Aotearoa New Zealand
New Zealand Demographics: Population Growth, Migration, Fertility and Māori Age Structure
New Zealand’s provisional estimated resident population was 5,357,300 at 30 June 2026. The population grew by 36,400 over the preceding year, with natural increase contributing 52% of the increase and net migration 48%. The total fertility rate fell to 1.51 births per woman in the year ended June 2026, while the Māori ethnic population retained a much younger age structure than the national population.
Data providers: Stats NZ national population estimates, international migration statistics, births and deaths statistics, Māori population estimates, and 2023 Census summaries. The latest quarterly population series is reproduced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from Stats NZ.
Core Demographic Indicators
Population Growth Swung Sharply After 2020
Between March 2015 and March 2025, the estimated resident population rose from 4,591,900 to 5,317,200. The annual change narrowed sharply after 2020 and turned slightly negative in 2022. The latest revised quarterly series places the population at 5,351,900 in March 2026 and 5,357,300 in June 2026.
| Reference date | Estimated resident population | Annual change | Annual change % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 March 2015 | 4,591,900 | — | — |
| 31 March 2016 | 4,695,000 | +103,100 | +2.25% |
| 31 March 2017 | 4,796,700 | +101,700 | +2.17% |
| 31 March 2018 | 4,886,100 | +89,400 | +1.86% |
| 31 March 2019 | 4,958,700 | +72,600 | +1.49% |
| 31 March 2020 | 5,067,300 | +108,600 | +2.19% |
| 31 March 2021 | 5,083,400 | +16,100 | +0.32% |
| 31 March 2022 | 5,081,800 | −1,600 | −0.03% |
| 31 March 2023 | 5,165,900 | +84,100 | +1.65% |
| 31 March 2024 | 5,283,100 | +117,200 | +2.27% |
| 31 March 2025 | 5,317,200 | +34,100 | +0.65% |
| 31 March 2026 | 5,351,900 | +34,700 | +0.65% |
| 30 June 2026 | 5,357,300 | +36,400 | +0.7% |
Source: Stats NZ estimated resident population series, including revised quarterly values reproduced in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand M12 table. Annual changes use matching reference dates.
Quarterly Population Growth Slowed in June 2026
Estimated Resident Population, June 2025–June 2026
Latest revised quarterly population estimates
Source: Stats NZ estimated resident population series, reproduced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Quarterly estimates are revised as newer demographic data become available.
Where the Growth Rate Changed
- The revised quarterly series increased from 5,321,000 at 30 June 2025 to 5,357,300 at 30 June 2026.
- The population increased by 5,400, or 0.1%, in the June 2026 quarter.
- The June 2026 estimate followed a larger increase from 5,339,400 in December 2025 to 5,351,900 in March 2026.
Natural Increase Accounted for 52% of the Latest Annual Increase
The June 2026 population estimate separates the annual increase into two components. Natural increase added about 18,700 people, while net migration added about 17,600. Natural increase therefore accounted for just over half of the 36,400 increase.
Population balance: population change equals natural increase plus net migration. Natural increase is the difference between births and deaths.
| Component | People added | Share of growth | Reference period | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net migration | +17,600 | 48% | Year ended June 2026 | Population-change component |
| Natural increase | +18,700 | 52% | Year ended June 2026 | Population-change component |
| Total population increase | +36,400 | 100% | Year ended June 2026 | Estimated resident population change |
Source: Stats NZ, National population estimates at 30 June 2026. Component values are rounded.
Natural Increase Slightly Exceeded Migration
Components of Population Growth
Estimated contribution to the year ended June 2026
Source: Stats NZ national population estimates. Values are rounded.
Positive Net Migration Includes a Large Citizen Loss
In the year ended June 2026, New Zealand recorded 130,700 migrant arrivals and 113,100 migrant departures, producing a provisional net gain of 17,600. The total combines a net loss of 37,700 New Zealand citizens with a net gain of 55,300 non-New Zealand citizens.
| Population group | Migrant arrivals | Migrant departures | Net migration | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All migrants | 130,700 | 113,100 | +17,600 | Provisional |
| New Zealand citizens | 26,200 | 63,900 | −37,700 | Provisional |
| Non-New Zealand citizens | 104,500 | 49,200 | +55,300 | Provisional |
Source: Stats NZ, International migration: June 2026. Values cover the year ended June 2026 and are outcomes-based provisional estimates.
Citizenship Flows Pull in Opposite Directions
Net Migration by Citizenship
Provisional migration balance in the year ended June 2026
Source: Stats NZ international migration statistics.
Why the Net Total Needs Context
- The non-citizen net gain of 55,300 was larger than the national net gain because it was partly offset by the citizen loss.
- Arrivals and departures together represented 243,800 migrant movements; net migration is the difference between the two flows.
- The newest outcomes-based estimates remain open to revision until sufficient travel history is available under the 12/16-month rule.
Lower Births Narrowed the Natural Increase Further
Registered live births fell by 2,097 between the June 2025 and June 2026 annual periods, while registered deaths rose by 714. The resulting registered natural increase declined from 21,042 to 18,231. The total fertility rate also moved down from 1.57 to 1.51 births per woman.
| Indicator | Year ended June 2025 | Year ended June 2026 | Absolute change | Percentage change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered live births | 58,365 | 56,268 | −2,097 | −3.6% |
| Registered deaths | 37,323 | 38,037 | +714 | +1.9% |
| Natural increase | 21,042 | 18,231 | −2,811 | −13.4% |
| Total fertility rate | 1.57 | 1.51 | −0.06 | −3.8% |
Source: Stats NZ births and deaths releases. Natural increase in this table is derived as registered births minus registered deaths.
Births Fell While Deaths Edged Up
Registered Births and Deaths
Annual registration totals for the June 2025 and June 2026 years
Source: Stats NZ births and deaths statistics.
How Natural Change Shifted
- The birth-death gap narrowed by 2,811 people, a 13.4% reduction from the preceding annual period.
- Births fell 3.6%, while deaths rose 1.9%.
- These are registration-based counts; the national population estimate uses an occurrence-based component for its population balance.
Fertility Became More Concentrated in the Early Thirties
In 1995, the highest age-specific fertility rate was among women aged 25–29, at 123.36 births per 1,000 women. By 2025, the highest rate was among women aged 30–34, at 102.70. Rates were lower than in 1995 at every age below 35, while the rates for ages 35–39 and 40–44 were higher.
| Age group | 1995 rate | 2025 rate | Absolute change | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–14 | 0.29 | 0.11 | −0.18 | Lower in 2025 |
| 15–19 | 33.39 | 9.09 | −24.30 | Lower in 2025 |
| 20–24 | 83.01 | 42.08 | −40.93 | Lower in 2025 |
| 25–29 | 123.36 | 81.63 | −41.73 | Lower in 2025 |
| 30–34 | 106.15 | 102.70 | −3.45 | Lower in 2025 |
| 35–39 | 43.50 | 61.72 | +18.22 | Higher in 2025 |
| 40–44 | 7.19 | 13.73 | +6.54 | Higher in 2025 |
| 45 and over | 0.37 | 1.02 | +0.65 | Higher in 2025 |
Source: Stats NZ age-specific fertility rates. Rates are live births per 1,000 mean estimated women in each age group. The final group includes births to women aged 45 and over, using women aged 45–49 as the denominator.
The Fertility Peak Moved to Ages 30–34
Age-Specific Fertility Rates, 1995 and 2025
Live births per 1,000 women in each age group
Source: Stats NZ age-specific fertility dataset.
Where the Fertility Profile Changed
- The rate for ages 15–19 fell from 33.39 to 9.09 births per 1,000 women.
- The rate for ages 25–29 fell by 41.73, while the rate for ages 30–34 declined by only 3.45.
- The rate for ages 35–39 rose from 43.50 to 61.72, but later childbearing did not prevent the total fertility rate from remaining low.
The Māori Population Is Younger Than the National Population
The provisionally estimated Māori ethnic population was 932,400 for the mean year ended December 2025, including about 463,700 males and 468,800 females. In the 2023 Census, the median age of the Māori ethnic group was 26.8 years, compared with 38.1 years for the total New Zealand population.
| Measure | Māori value | Comparator | Reference period | Population basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Māori ethnic population | 932,400 | — | Mean 2025 | Provisional estimated resident population |
| Median age | 26.8 years | New Zealand total: 38.1 years | 2023 Census | Census usually resident population |
| Male median age | 26.5 years | Female Māori median: 28.5 years | Mean 2025 | Provisional Māori ethnic estimate |
| Aged 0–14 | 28.3% | — | Mean 2025 | Derived from rounded five-year estimates |
| Aged 15–64 | 63.6% | — | Mean 2025 | Derived from rounded five-year estimates |
| Aged 65 and over | 8.0% | — | Mean 2025 | Derived from rounded five-year estimates |
Ethnicity measure: Māori ethnicity is based on self-identification and is not identical to Māori descent. A person may identify with Māori and one or more other ethnicities, so ethnic population totals are not mutually exclusive.
Māori Age-Sex Counts Show a Wide Youth Base
The largest five-year group in the 2025 Māori estimate was ages 15–19, with 91,780 people based on the rounded male and female counts. Male counts were slightly higher through ages 20–24. Female counts were higher from ages 25–29 onward, and the difference widened across older age groups.
| Age group | Male | Female | Total | Males per 100 females |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 44,780 | 42,080 | 86,860 | 106.4 |
| 5–9 | 44,970 | 42,330 | 87,300 | 106.2 |
| 10–14 | 46,270 | 43,870 | 90,140 | 105.5 |
| 15–19 | 47,060 | 44,720 | 91,780 | 105.2 |
| 20–24 | 37,950 | 37,320 | 75,270 | 101.7 |
| 25–29 | 34,230 | 34,300 | 68,530 | 99.8 |
| 30–34 | 33,380 | 34,150 | 67,530 | 97.7 |
| 35–39 | 29,020 | 30,740 | 59,760 | 94.4 |
| 40–44 | 24,170 | 25,420 | 49,590 | 95.1 |
| 45–49 | 22,640 | 24,170 | 46,810 | 93.7 |
| 50–54 | 23,670 | 25,280 | 48,950 | 93.6 |
| 55–59 | 21,450 | 22,840 | 44,290 | 93.9 |
| 60–64 | 19,570 | 21,270 | 40,840 | 92.0 |
| 65–69 | 14,700 | 16,390 | 31,090 | 89.7 |
| 70–74 | 9,600 | 10,940 | 20,540 | 87.8 |
| 75–79 | 5,810 | 6,820 | 12,630 | 85.2 |
| 80–84 | 2,810 | 3,550 | 6,360 | 79.2 |
| 85–89 | 1,220 | 1,800 | 3,020 | 67.8 |
| 90+ | 380 | 770 | 1,150 | 49.4 |
Source: Stats NZ Māori population estimates, mean 2025. Age-sex cells are rounded to the nearest 10; row totals and sex ratios are derived from the displayed cells.
The Sex Balance Reverses in the Late Twenties
Māori Population by Age and Sex
Mean estimated resident population in 2025
Source: Stats NZ Māori population estimates. Counts are rounded to the nearest 10.
Where the Sex Balance Changes
- Ages 20–24 had 101.7 males per 100 females; the ratio moved below 100 at ages 25–29.
- At ages 65–69, the ratio was 89.7 males per 100 females.
- The 90-and-over group contained about 380 males and 770 females, a ratio of 49.4 males per 100 females.
Data Sources and Methodology
The indicators retain their official reference periods rather than being forced into a common date. Quarterly population changes, annual June population growth, registered natural increase, broad Māori age shares, and age-specific sex ratios are derived from the published values. No missing years or age groups are interpolated.
| Source | Release or data year | Used for | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stats NZ National population estimates | At 30 June 2026 | Current population, annual and quarterly growth, sex totals, median ages, and growth components | Provisional estimated resident population |
| Stats NZ estimated resident population series, reproduced in Reserve Bank of New Zealand M12 | Quarterly series to June 2026 | Recent quarterly population path and revised population estimates | Quarterly estimated resident population |
| Stats NZ International migration | Year ended June 2026 | Arrivals, departures, and net migration by citizenship | Provisional outcomes-based migration estimate |
| Stats NZ Births and deaths | Years ended June 2025 and June 2026 | Registered births, deaths, natural increase, and total fertility rate | Registered vital events and period fertility rate |
| Stats NZ age-specific fertility dataset, accessed through a Figure.NZ extract | 1995 and 2025 | Fertility timing by five-year age group | Live births per 1,000 mean estimated women |
| Stats NZ Māori population estimates, accessed through a Figure.NZ extract | Mean year ended December 2025 | Māori population total, sex totals, median ages, and detailed age-sex structure | Provisional Māori ethnic estimated resident population |
| Stats NZ 2023 Census place and ethnic group summaries | 2023 Census | Māori and total New Zealand median-age comparison | Census usually resident population |
National population estimates are stocks measured at a reference date. Birth and death statistics are registration totals for a 12-month period. Migration statistics classify people from observed travel behaviour under the 12/16-month rule. Māori population estimates update a census-based ethnic population for births, deaths, migration, and estimated movement between ethnic identifications.
Methodological Safety Note: The June 2026 national population estimate, migration release, and registered births and deaths release use the same June-year endpoint but different statistical measures. The 18,231 natural increase in the vital-events table is derived from registered births and deaths, while the national population estimate uses an occurrence-based natural-increase component rounded to 18,700. Migration values are provisional and may be revised as travel histories mature. The 2023 Census median-age comparison and the 2025 Māori estimates are different measures from different reference periods. Māori ethnicity allows multiple identification and should not be added to other ethnic populations to produce a national total.