South Asia · Demographic Transition
Nepal Demographics: Fertility Decline, Migration and Urban Transition
Nepal’s population is still increasing, but the structure of that growth has changed. The 2021 census recorded slower intercensal growth, the 2024-25 household survey placed fertility below the broad replacement benchmark, and migration continues to redistribute young adults both outside the country and toward urban and peri-urban settlements.
Primary data come from Nepal’s National Statistics Office, the 2021 National Population and Housing Census thematic reports, the Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2024-25, and the national population projections for 2021-2051.
Core Demographic Indicators
Population Growth Has Slowed Without Reversing
Nepal’s census population increased from 5.64 million in 1911 to 29.16 million in 2021. The annual intercensal growth rate reached 2.62% in 1981, remained above 2% in 1991 and 2001, and then fell to 1.35% in 2011 and 0.92% in 2021.
The latest decade added 2,670,074 residents, compared with an increase of 3,343,081 between 2001 and 2011. Slower growth therefore reflects a smaller addition to the resident population, not a national population decline.
| Census year | Population | Change from previous census | Annual growth rate | Density | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1911 | 5,638,749 | Not applicable | Not applicable | 38 persons/km² | Census count |
| 1920 | 5,573,788 | −64,961 | −0.13% | 38 persons/km² | Census count |
| 1930 | 5,532,574 | −41,214 | −0.07% | 38 persons/km² | Census count |
| 1941-42 | 6,283,649 | 751,075 | 1.16% | 43 persons/km² | Census count |
| 1952-54 | 8,256,625 | 1,972,976 | 2.27% | 56 persons/km² | Census count |
| 1961 | 9,412,996 | 1,156,371 | 1.64% | 64 persons/km² | Census count |
| 1971 | 11,555,983 | 2,142,987 | 2.05% | 79 persons/km² | Census count |
| 1981 | 15,022,839 | 3,466,856 | 2.62% | 102 persons/km² | Census count |
| 1991 | 18,491,097 | 3,468,258 | 2.08% | 126 persons/km² | Census count |
| 2001 | 23,151,423 | 4,660,326 | 2.25% | 157 persons/km² | Census count |
| 2011 | 26,494,504 | 3,343,081 | 1.35% | 180 persons/km² | Census count |
| 2021 | 29,164,578 | 2,670,074 | 0.92% | 198 persons/km² | Census count |
Where the growth path changed
- The highest published intercensal rate in this series was 2.62% in 1981.
- The rate fell from 2.25% in 2001 to 0.92% in 2021.
- The 2011-2021 population addition was 673,007 smaller than the addition recorded during 2001-2011.
Census Population, 1911-2021
Resident population recorded in Nepal’s national censuses
Source: National Statistics Office, Population Composition of Nepal, NPHC 2021 thematic report.
Fertility Is Below the Broad Replacement Benchmark
The Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2024-25 estimated a total fertility rate of 1.9 births per woman for the three-year period preceding the survey. The estimate was 1.8 in urban areas and 2.1 in rural areas.
Province-level estimates show that the national average does not describe a uniform transition. Madhesh recorded 2.4 and Karnali 2.3, while Gandaki recorded 1.5 and Bagmati 1.6. Urban Kathmandu Valley had an estimate of 1.4.
Fertility measure: Total fertility rate is a synthetic period measure calculated from age-specific fertility rates. The value 2.1 is a broad replacement-level benchmark, not a fixed threshold that applies identically to every population.
| Area | Total fertility rate | Adolescent birth rate | Comparison basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nepal | 1.9 births per woman | 48 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | National estimate | NMICS 2024-25 |
| Urban | 1.8 births per woman | 41 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | Area of residence | NMICS 2024-25 |
| Rural | 2.1 births per woman | 61 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | Area of residence | NMICS 2024-25 |
| Koshi | 2.0 births per woman | 47 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | Province | NMICS 2024-25 |
| Madhesh | 2.4 births per woman | 71 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | Province | NMICS 2024-25 |
| Bagmati | 1.6 births per woman | 31 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | Province | NMICS 2024-25 |
| Gandaki | 1.5 births per woman | 46 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | Province | NMICS 2024-25 |
| Lumbini | 1.7 births per woman | 30 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | Province | NMICS 2024-25 |
| Karnali | 2.3 births per woman | 77 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | Province | NMICS 2024-25 |
| Sudurpashchim | 1.9 births per woman | 36 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | Province | NMICS 2024-25 |
| Urban Kathmandu Valley | 1.4 births per woman | 14 per 1,000 women aged 15-19 | Urban subarea | NMICS 2024-25 |
Where fertility levels diverge
- The difference between Madhesh and Gandaki was 0.9 births per woman.
- Karnali had the highest provincial adolescent birth rate at 77 per 1,000 women aged 15-19.
- Urban Kathmandu Valley combined the lowest displayed fertility estimate, 1.4, with the lowest adolescent birth rate, 14 per 1,000.
Total Fertility Rate by Province, 2024-25
Survey estimates for the three-year period preceding NMICS 2024-25
Source: Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2024-25, National Statistics Office and UNICEF. The broad replacement benchmark is approximately 2.1 births per woman.
Migration Removes a Large Young-Adult Population from the Resident Count
The 2021 census recorded 2,190,592 people as absentees abroad. This is a stock measure of people reported as living outside Nepal at the census reference time; it is not the number who emigrated during a single year.
Men accounted for 1,799,675 absentees abroad, or 82.15% of the total. The largest age group was 20-24, with 655,716 people. The four age groups from 15 to 34 contained 1,661,415 people, equal to 75.8% of the published absentee total.
| Age group | Total | Male | Female | Share of all absentees | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | 70,958 | 38,935 | 32,023 | 3.24% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 5-9 | 36,074 | 21,167 | 14,907 | 1.65% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 10-14 | 58,832 | 46,971 | 11,861 | 2.69% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 15-19 | 319,596 | 268,221 | 51,375 | 14.59% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 20-24 | 655,716 | 535,082 | 120,634 | 29.93% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 25-29 | 426,925 | 353,684 | 73,241 | 19.49% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 30-34 | 259,178 | 223,610 | 35,568 | 11.83% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 35-39 | 167,325 | 147,518 | 19,807 | 7.64% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 40-44 | 86,593 | 77,294 | 9,299 | 3.95% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 45-49 | 40,073 | 35,424 | 4,649 | 1.83% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 50-54 | 18,846 | 16,043 | 2,803 | 0.86% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 55-59 | 8,932 | 7,107 | 1,825 | 0.41% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 60-64 | 4,969 | 3,449 | 1,520 | 0.23% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| 65+ | 4,690 | 2,999 | 1,691 | 0.21% | Census absentee stock abroad |
| Age not stated | 31,885 | 22,171 | 9,714 | 1.46% | Derived residual from published all-ages total |
| All ages | 2,190,592 | 1,799,675 | 390,917 | 100.00% | Census absentee stock abroad |
What the age-sex distribution adds
- The 20-24 group alone represented 29.93% of all people reported absent abroad.
- Men outnumbered women in every published age group.
- The concentration at ages 15-34 overlaps with ages at which employment, partnership formation, and childbearing commonly occur; the census distribution does not by itself establish a causal effect on fertility.
Absentee Population Abroad by Age and Sex, 2021
People reported abroad at the census reference time; this is not the resident population pyramid
Source: National Statistics Office, NPHC 2021. Male values are encoded on the left and female values on the right; readouts should display absolute counts. The derived age-not-stated residual is excluded from the chart.
Internal Migration Is Concentrated in Urban-Bound Flows
The 2021 internal migration report identified 1,994,996 recent internal migrants. Rural-to-urban moves made up 51.3% of the total, followed by urban-to-urban moves at 32.8%. Together, these two streams represented 84.1% of recent internal migration.
The inter-district lifetime migration rate reached 20.0% in 2021, up from 14.8% in 2011 and 4.7% in 1961. These measures describe movement within Nepal and should not be combined with the absentee population abroad.
| Migration stream | Share | Direction | Measure type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rural to urban | 51.3% | Toward urban areas | Recent internal migration stream | NPHC 2021 internal migration report |
| Urban to urban | 32.8% | Between urban areas | Recent internal migration stream | NPHC 2021 internal migration report |
| Rural to rural | 12.0% | Between rural areas | Recent internal migration stream | NPHC 2021 internal migration report |
| Urban to rural | 3.9% | Toward rural areas | Recent internal migration stream | NPHC 2021 internal migration report |
The Child Share Has Contracted as the Working-Age Share Expanded
The broad age structure changed sharply between the 2011 and 2021 censuses. The share aged 0-14 fell from 34.9% to 27.8%, while the share aged 15-64 rose from 59.9% to 65.2%. The population aged 65 and older increased from 5.3% to 6.9%.
The median age reached 26 years in 2021, compared with 22.3 years in 2011. The 2021 median was 25 for males and 27 for females. These changes indicate an older age distribution even though Nepal remained predominantly working age.
Chart scope: The chart below uses three broad age groups. It is a broad age-structure comparison, not a full population pyramid based on five-year age groups by sex.
| Census year | Aged 0-14 | Aged 15-64 | Aged 65+ | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1952-54 | 38.4% | 58.9% | 2.7% | Census age distribution |
| 1961 | 39.9% | 57.4% | 2.7% | Census age distribution |
| 1971 | 40.5% | 56.5% | 3.1% | Census age distribution |
| 1981 | 41.4% | 55.4% | 3.3% | Census age distribution |
| 1991 | 42.4% | 54.1% | 3.5% | Census age distribution |
| 2001 | 38.7% | 55.4% | 4.1% | Census age distribution |
| 2011 | 34.9% | 59.9% | 5.3% | Census age distribution |
| 2021 | 27.8% | 65.2% | 6.9% | Census age distribution |
How the age balance shifted after 2011
- The child share fell by 7.1 percentage points between 2011 and 2021.
- The working-age share rose by 5.3 percentage points over the same period.
- The 65+ share rose by 1.6 percentage points and was 4.2 percentage points above its 1952-54 level.
Broad Age Structure Across Censuses
Shares of the population aged 0-14, 15-64, and 65+
Source: National Statistics Office, Population Composition of Nepal. Percentages may not total exactly 100 because of rounding.
Urbanization Depends on the Classification Used
Administrative municipality status placed 66.2% of Nepal’s 2021 census population in urban municipalities. A settlement-based Degree of Urbanization classification produced a different distribution: 27.1% urban, 39.7% peri-urban, and 33.2% rural.
The two systems answer different questions. Municipality status follows local government boundaries, while DEGURBA classifies settlement patterns using population density, size, and spatial contiguity. The 66.2% and 27.1% figures therefore should not be treated as competing estimates of the same measure.
| Classification | Category | Population | Share | What the category measures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Administrative municipality | Urban municipality | 19,296,788 | 66.2% | Population inside administratively urban local units |
| Administrative municipality | Rural municipality | 9,867,790 | 33.8% | Population inside administratively rural local units |
| DEGURBA | Urban | 7,828,712 | 27.1% | High-density urban settlement pattern |
| DEGURBA | Peri-urban | 11,496,375 | 39.7% | Intermediate-density settlement pattern |
| DEGURBA | Rural | 9,600,393 | 33.2% | Low-density rural settlement pattern |
Coverage difference: The DEGURBA categories shown here cover 28,925,480 people, which is lower than the full 2021 census count of 29,164,578. The administrative and settlement-based counts should be interpreted within their own published classification totals.
Peri-urban settlement is the largest category nationally
The provincial distribution shows three different patterns. Bagmati had the highest urban share at 56.0%, Madhesh had the highest peri-urban share at 73.5%, and Karnali had the highest rural share at 80.1%. A single national urban percentage does not capture this geographic contrast.
| Province | Rural | Peri-urban | Urban | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koshi | 36.1% | 41.2% | 22.7% | DEGURBA 2021 |
| Madhesh | 5.8% | 73.5% | 20.6% | DEGURBA 2021 |
| Bagmati | 29.7% | 14.3% | 56.0% | DEGURBA 2021 |
| Gandaki | 50.9% | 23.1% | 26.0% | DEGURBA 2021 |
| Lumbini | 31.2% | 52.2% | 16.5% | DEGURBA 2021 |
| Karnali | 80.1% | 4.3% | 15.5% | DEGURBA 2021 |
| Sudurpashchim | 56.2% | 31.0% | 12.9% | DEGURBA 2021 |
Why Nepal can be described as both 66.2% and 27.1% urban
- The 66.2% figure is based on administrative urban-municipality boundaries.
- The 27.1% figure is based on the density and spatial form of settlements.
- DEGURBA places another 39.7% in a peri-urban category that has no direct equivalent in the administrative split.
Rural, Peri-Urban, and Urban Shares by Province
Settlement-based Degree of Urbanization classification, 2021
Source: National Statistics Office, NPHC 2021 population-composition report. Provincial totals may differ from 100.0% by 0.1 percentage point because of rounding.
Population Growth Continues in the Medium Projection as Ageing Accelerates
The National Statistics Office medium scenario projects a population of 30,034,040 in 2026 and 33,536,989 in 2051. These values are not new census counts. The projection begins from an adjusted and smoothed 2021 base of 29,356,136, rather than the published census count of 29,164,578.
The scenario combines continued population growth with an older structure. The projected 65+ share rises from 6.7% in the adjusted 2021 base to 14.4% in 2050. The projected absentee population reaches about 3.41 million around 2037 before declining to 2.57 million by 2050.
| Year | Projected population | Scenario | Population basis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 adjusted base | 29,356,136 | Medium | Age-sex smoothing and post-enumeration adjustment | NSO population projections 2021-2051 |
| 2026 | 30,034,040 | Medium | Projection | NSO population projections 2021-2051 |
| 2031 | 30,603,859 | Medium | Projection | NSO population projections 2021-2051 |
| 2036 | 31,283,898 | Medium | Projection | NSO population projections 2021-2051 |
| 2041 | 32,063,015 | Medium | Projection | NSO population projections 2021-2051 |
| 2046 | 32,871,681 | Medium | Projection | NSO population projections 2021-2051 |
| 2051 | 33,536,989 | Medium | Projection | NSO population projections 2021-2051 |
Projection interpretation: Population projections are scenario-based estimates, not guaranteed predictions. Fertility, mortality, international movement, return migration, and the projection’s adjusted base population all affect the path shown.
Medium-Scenario Population Projection, 2021-2051
Selected years from the official national projection series
Source: National Statistics Office, Population Projections for Nepal 2021-2051. The 2021 point is the projection report’s adjusted base, not the published census count.
Data Sources and Methodology
The page keeps census counts, survey estimates, migration stocks, settlement classifications, and projections separate. Values derived from published counts include the share of absentees in each age group, the age-not-stated residual, the combined 15-34 absentee share, and percentage-point changes between census age distributions. Displayed percentages are rounded to the precision used by the source or to two decimals for derived shares.
| Source | Release or data year | Used for | Measure type |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Statistics Office, Population Composition of Nepal, NPHC 2021 thematic report | Census years through 2021 | Census history, growth, density, median age, broad age structure, administrative municipality shares, and absentee population abroad | Census count and census-derived shares |
| National Statistics Office and UNICEF, Nepal Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey 2024-25 | Fieldwork 2024-25; published 2026 | Total fertility rate and adolescent birth rate by residence and province | Sample-survey estimate |
| National Statistics Office, Internal Migration in Nepal, NPHC 2021 thematic report | 2021 census data; thematic report published 2025 | Recent internal migration streams and inter-district lifetime migration rates | Census migration stock and stream distribution |
| National Statistics Office, NPHC 2021 population-composition DEGURBA tables | 2021 | Rural, peri-urban, and urban settlement shares nationally and by province | Settlement-density classification |
| National Statistics Office, Population Projections for Nepal 2021-2051 | Projection horizon 2021-2051 | Medium-scenario population, older-age share, and projected absentee population | Scenario-based projection |
Methodological Safety Note: The 2021 population of 29,164,578 is the published census count. The projection series uses a separate adjusted 2021 base of 29,356,136, so projected values must not be presented as later census counts. The 1.9 fertility rate is a sample-survey period estimate, not a census count of births. The absentee population abroad is a stock recorded at the census reference time, not annual emigration or net migration. Administrative urban-municipality shares and DEGURBA settlement shares use different definitions and different published classification totals. Provincial survey estimates may also carry sampling uncertainty that is not visible from the point estimate alone.