Africa · Eastern Africa
Madagascar Demographics: Population Growth, Fertility and Urban Change
Madagascar remains in a high-growth demographic phase. The 2025 mid-year population estimate reached 32.74 million, annual growth remained near 2.4%, and 39% of the population was younger than 15. Fertility has declined over several decades, yet large child and youth cohorts continue to support population momentum.
Main data used: Madagascar INSTAT RGPH-3, Madagascar DHS 2021, World Bank World Development Indicators, UNFPA, and the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 revision.
Last updated: August 1, 2026
Core Demographic Indicators
The Current Population Figure Is an Estimate, Not a Census Count
Madagascar’s most recent completed population census counted 25,674,196 residents in 2018. The World Bank and United Nations series places the 2025 mid-year population at 32,740,678. The difference is 7,066,482 people, but it should not be interpreted as a second census result. The later value is produced from demographic estimation between census years.
The current profile combines several measures because no single release contains every indicator for the same year. Each value is therefore labelled by year and measure type.
| Indicator | Value | Year | Measure Type | Data Provider |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resident population | 25,674,196 | 2018 | Census count | Madagascar INSTAT, RGPH-3 |
| Total population | 32,740,678 | 2025 | Mid-year estimate | World Bank WDI and UN WPP |
| Annual population growth | 2.4% | 2025 | Annual rate | World Bank WDI |
| Net migration | −2,227 | 2025 | Model estimate | World Bank WDI and UN WPP |
| Total fertility rate | 3.9 births per woman | 2025 | Model estimate | UNFPA and UN WPP |
| Population aged 0–14 | 39% | 2025 | Estimated share | UNFPA and UN WPP |
| Population aged 15–64 | 58% | 2025 | Estimated share | UNFPA and UN WPP |
| Population aged 65 and older | 3% | 2025 | Estimated share | UNFPA and UN WPP |
| Urban population | 10,772,242 | 2025 | International estimate | World Bank WDI |
| Urban population share | 32.9% | 2025 | Derived share | Calculated from World Bank values |
| Median age | 18 years | 2018 | Census statistic | Madagascar INSTAT, RGPH-3 |
| Population density | 43.3 people per km² | 2018 | Census statistic | Madagascar INSTAT, RGPH-3 |
The Census Count More Than Tripled Between 1975 and 2018
Madagascar’s three post-independence censuses recorded 7.60 million residents in 1975, 12.24 million in 1993 and 25.67 million in 2018. The 2018 count was 237.6% above the 1975 total.
The faster interval was 1993–2018. The population more than doubled during those 25 years, with an average annual intercensal growth rate close to 3.0%.
| Census Year | Resident Population | Change Since Previous Census | Period Change | Average Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 7,603,790 | — | — | — |
| 1993 | 12,238,914 | +4,635,124 | 61.0% | 2.7% |
| 2018 | 25,674,196 | +13,435,282 | 109.8% | 3.0% |
What the Census Series Shows
- The 1993 census count was 4.64 million above the 1975 result.
- The 2018 census count was 13.44 million above the 1993 result.
- INSTAT calculated average growth of 3.01% per year for 1993–2018, equal to about 368,123 additional residents per year.
- At the recorded 1993–2018 pace, the implied population doubling time was about 23 years.
Population Growth Changed Scale After 1993
Population Recorded by Madagascar’s Three Censuses
Resident population counted in 1975, 1993 and 2018
Data: Madagascar INSTAT, RGPH-3 final results. Values are census counts.
Falling Fertility Has Not Ended Population Growth
The World Bank population estimate rose from 31,964,956 in 2024 to 32,740,678 in 2025. That is an estimated increase of 775,722 people in one year. Net migration for 2025 was estimated at −2,227, a small negative balance compared with the total increase.
The difference in scale indicates that births minus deaths account for almost all current growth. Migration makes only a small contribution to the national total in the selected series.
Falling fertility does not produce an immediate population decline. Total fertility measures the average number of births per woman. It does not measure the number of women entering reproductive ages. Madagascar’s large child and youth cohorts can keep the annual number of births high while births per woman decline.
Positive natural change accounts for nearly all estimated population growth because net migration remains slightly negative.
Large cohorts moving into adulthood can sustain growth after the fertility rate begins to fall.
A lower fertility rate affects population growth gradually as the size of successive birth cohorts changes.
How Population Momentum Works
- A fertility rate describes births per woman, not the national number of births.
- A growing number of women at reproductive ages can offset part of the decline in births per woman.
- The effect weakens only after smaller birth cohorts begin replacing the larger cohorts born earlier.
Fertility Has Declined, but the Urban–Rural Gap Remains Wide
Census-based fertility fell from 6.3 births per woman in 1975 to 4.3 in 2018. The 2021 Demographic and Health Survey also measured a national rate of 4.3.
Residence produced a wide difference in the survey. Rural fertility was 4.6 births per woman, compared with 3.2 in urban areas. The 1.4-birth gap shows that the fertility transition is proceeding at different speeds within the country.
| Year | Total Fertility Rate | Population Coverage | Measure Type | Data Provider |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 6.3 births per woman | National | Census-based estimate | Madagascar INSTAT |
| 1993 | 5.9 births per woman | National | Census-based estimate | Madagascar INSTAT |
| 2018 | 4.3 births per woman | National | Census-based estimate | Madagascar INSTAT, RGPH-3 |
| 2021 | 4.3 births per woman | National | Household survey estimate | Madagascar DHS |
| 2021 | 3.2 births per woman | Urban | Household survey estimate | Madagascar DHS |
| 2021 | 4.6 births per woman | Rural | Household survey estimate | Madagascar DHS |
| 2025 | 3.9 births per woman | National | Model estimate | UNFPA and UN WPP |
How the Fertility Measures Differ
- The 1975, 1993 and 2018 values were produced from national census data.
- The 2021 values came from a sampled household survey and include separate urban and rural estimates.
- The 2025 value is a model-based estimate within the UN World Population Prospects series.
- The figures describe the same demographic concept, but their collection methods and reference periods are not identical.
The Census Fertility Series Fell by Two Births per Woman
Census-Based Total Fertility Rate
Births per woman recorded from the 1975, 1993 and 2018 census analyses
Data: Madagascar INSTAT. The chart uses only the census-based series so that collection methods remain aligned.
A Young Age Structure Sustains Population Momentum
UNFPA’s 2025 profile places 39% of Madagascar’s population below age 15, 58% between ages 15 and 64, and 3% at age 65 or older. Children therefore form a much larger share than older adults.
The age distribution creates two overlapping demographic pressures. Large child cohorts require continued expansion of schooling, health services and household resources. As those cohorts enter adulthood, the working-age population and the number of people at reproductive ages also rise.
Broad Age Structure in 2025
Share of the estimated population in three broad age groups
Data: UNFPA calculations based on the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 revision. Shares are rounded. This is a broad age structure chart, not a full population pyramid.
The broad age bands should not be presented as a population pyramid. A full pyramid requires male and female population counts for detailed five-year age groups. The three-group distribution is suited to measuring the balance between children, working-age residents and older adults.
Urban Growth Is Real, but the Reported Rate Depends on Definition
Madagascar’s census-recorded urban population rose from about 2.8 million in 1993 to 4,942,902 in 2018. The urban count grew even though the official urban share fell from 22.9% to 19.3%.
INSTAT attributes this apparent reversal to changes in the concept and classification of urban areas between the two censuses. The agency calculated average urban population growth of about 2.3% per year during 1993–2018.
| Year | Data Series | Urban Population | Urban Share | Definition and Measure | Data Provider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | National census | About 2.8 million | 22.9% | Urban population under the 1993 national census classification | Madagascar INSTAT |
| 2018 | National census | 4,942,902 | 19.3% | Urban population under the 2018 census classification, which was not identical to the 1993 definition | Madagascar INSTAT, RGPH-3 |
| 2025 | International estimate | 10,772,242 | 32.9% | Modelled urban population; share derived from the corresponding total population estimate | World Bank WDI |
The three rows do not form one uninterrupted urbanization series. The 1993 and 2018 values use national census classifications, while the 2025 value comes from an international estimate. Administrative urban communes, built-up localities and wider metropolitan areas can produce different totals.
Why the Urban Share Changes Across Sources
- The census-recorded urban count rose by about 2.14 million between 1993 and 2018.
- The official urban share fell by 3.6 percentage points because the urban classification changed.
- The 2025 international estimate uses a separate statistical series and should not be appended directly to the national census series.
- City-proper, urban-commune and metropolitan populations can differ even when they refer to the same named city.
Data Sources and Methodology
The page separates census counts, household survey estimates, international model estimates and derived values. Census population and census-based fertility figures use Madagascar’s RGPH series. The 2021 fertility estimates use the fifth Madagascar Demographic and Health Survey. Current population, growth, migration and urban values use World Bank indicators and United Nations demographic series. Broad age shares and the 2025 fertility estimate use UNFPA indicators based on the World Population Prospects 2024 revision.
The 2025 urban share was calculated as 10,772,242 divided by 32,740,678 and rounded to 32.9%. The difference between the 2024 and 2025 population estimates was calculated from the two published totals. These derived values do not replace the original series.
| Source | Release or Data Year | Used for | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madagascar INSTAT, RGPH-3 final results and thematic reports | 1975, 1993 and 2018 census data | Census population, intercensal growth, median age, density, fertility and urban-rural distribution | Census count and census-derived rate |
| Madagascar Demographic and Health Survey | 2021 | National, urban and rural total fertility rates | Sample survey estimate |
| World Bank World Development Indicators | 2024–2025 | Population, annual growth, net migration and urban population | Mid-year and model estimates |
| UNFPA World Population Dashboard | 2025 | Total fertility rate and broad age structure | UN WPP-based model estimate |
| United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 revision | 2024 revision with 2025 estimates | Underlying current population, fertility, age and migration series | Demographic estimate |
Methodological Safety Note: The 2018 resident population is a census count, while the 2025 population is a mid-year estimate. They should not be described as results from equivalent enumeration exercises. The urban shares for 1993 and 2018 reflect national census classifications that changed between censuses; the 2025 urban figure belongs to a separate international series. The fertility table combines census-based, survey and model estimates to show measured levels and direction, but it is not a single annual time series. Age shares are rounded to whole percentages, and the 2025 urban share is a derived calculation.