Central Asia · Country Demographic Profile
Kazakhstan Demographics: Migration and Regional Population Growth
Kazakhstan had 20,575,979 residents on June 1, 2026. Recorded population growth during January–May reached 76,157 people: natural increase contributed 70,209 and external net migration contributed 5,948. Growth was concentrated in Astana, Almaty, Shymkent and Almaty Region, while several northern, eastern and rural regions lost population.
Primary data are from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, using current population estimates, civil registration records and registered migration data.
Core Demographic Indicators
The Population Recovered After Reaching a Low in 2000
Kazakhstan’s beginning-of-year population declined from 16.36 million in 1991 to 14.90 million in 2000, a reduction of 8.9%. The series then moved upward. By the beginning of 2026, the population was 20.50 million, 37.6% above the 2000 level.
Population at the Beginning of Each Year, 1991–2026
The official series shows the post-Soviet contraction, the 2000 low point and the later expansion beyond 20 million.
Data provider — Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan. Values are beginning-of-year current population estimates.
| Year | Population |
|---|---|
| 1991 | 16,358,222 |
| 1995 | 15,956,667 |
| 2000 | 14,901,641 |
| 2005 | 15,074,767 |
| 2010 | 16,203,173 |
| 2015 | 17,414,887 |
| 2020 | 18,630,920 |
| 2021 | 18,878,966 |
| 2022 | 19,503,159 |
| 2023 | 19,766,807 |
| 2024 | 20,033,842 |
| 2025 | 20,283,399 |
| 2026 | 20,499,822 |
Why the Series Changes Direction
- The population fell by 1,456,581 between the beginning of 1991 and the beginning of 2000.
- The 2000–2026 increase was 5,598,181.
- Current estimates are updated from census results, registered natural change and migration; revisions can affect year-to-year differences.
Natural Increase Still Accounts for Most National Growth
Births exceeded deaths by 200,270 in 2025. Natural increase was lower than in every year from 2015 through 2024 because births declined to 335,005. The 2025 birth count was 24.9% below the 2021 count.
January–May 2026 growth equation: 70,209 natural increase + 5,948 external net migration = 76,157 total population growth. Natural increase represented about 92.2% of the recorded gain.
Natural Increase and External Net Migration, 2015–2025
Natural increase remained positive throughout the period, while external migration moved from loss to gain in 2023.
Data provider — Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan. Values are annual counts.
| Year | Births | Deaths | Natural Increase | External Net Migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 398,591 | 131,292 | +267,299 | −13,466 |
| 2016 | 401,031 | 131,983 | +269,048 | −21,145 |
| 2017 | 390,505 | 129,173 | +261,332 | −22,130 |
| 2018 | 397,618 | 129,680 | +267,938 | −29,121 |
| 2019 | 401,869 | 132,621 | +269,248 | −32,970 |
| 2020 | 426,726 | 160,962 | +265,764 | −17,718 |
| 2021 | 445,875 | 181,216 | +264,659 | −21,217 |
| 2022 | 403,893 | 133,523 | +270,370 | −6,722 |
| 2023 | 388,428 | 130,686 | +257,742 | +9,293 |
| 2024 | 365,923 | 132,916 | +233,007 | +16,550 |
| 2025 | 335,005 | 134,735 | +200,270 | +16,153 |
How the Growth Components Shifted
- Natural increase declined from 269,248 in 2019 to 200,270 in 2025.
- External net migration changed from −6,722 in 2022 to +9,293 in 2023.
- Positive international migration has added population since 2023, but its scale remains smaller than natural increase.
Fertility Fell from 3.32 to 2.57 Births per Woman
The total fertility rate increased from 1.80 in 1999 to 3.32 in 2021. It then fell by 0.75 births per woman, reaching 2.57 in 2025. Women aged 25–29 accounted for 27.0% of births in 2025, and women aged 30–34 accounted for 26.1%.
Total Fertility Rate, 1999–2025
The national rate rose to a 2021 peak and then declined in each subsequent year.
Data provider — Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan. The published series has no national observations for 2000–2002.
| Year | Total Fertility Rate |
|---|---|
| 1999 | 1.80 births per woman |
| 2005 | 2.22 births per woman |
| 2010 | 2.61 births per woman |
| 2015 | 2.76 births per woman |
| 2020 | 3.13 births per woman |
| 2021 | 3.32 births per woman |
| 2022 | 3.05 births per woman |
| 2023 | 2.96 births per woman |
| 2024 | 2.80 births per woman |
| 2025 | 2.57 births per woman |
Regional fertility range: Turkistan recorded 3.86 births per woman in 2025, followed by Kyzylorda at 3.43 and Mangystau at 3.32. North Kazakhstan recorded 1.63, Kostanay 1.68 and Almaty city 1.71.
International Migration Returned to a Positive Balance in 2023
External migration produced large population losses at the beginning of the series. In 2000, departures exceeded arrivals by 108,307. The balance was negative from 2012 through 2022, became positive in 2023 and reached +16,153 in 2025.
In 2025, Kazakhstan registered 23,761 international arrivals and 7,608 departures. CIS countries accounted for 81.8% of arrivals and 71.8% of departures.
International Arrivals and Departures, 2000–2025
Departures were far above arrivals in 2000. The balance became positive again in 2023 and remained positive in 2024 and 2025.
Data provider — Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan. The series covers registered external migration for permanent or long-term residence.
| Year | Arrivals | Departures | Net Migration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 47,442 | 155,749 | −108,307 |
| 2005 | 74,807 | 52,139 | +22,668 |
| 2010 | 42,057 | 26,541 | +15,516 |
| 2015 | 16,581 | 30,047 | −13,466 |
| 2018 | 12,747 | 41,868 | −29,121 |
| 2019 | 12,255 | 45,225 | −32,970 |
| 2020 | 11,370 | 29,088 | −17,718 |
| 2021 | 11,039 | 32,256 | −21,217 |
| 2022 | 17,425 | 24,147 | −6,722 |
| 2023 | 25,387 | 16,094 | +9,293 |
| 2024 | 29,282 | 12,732 | +16,550 |
| 2025 | 23,761 | 7,608 | +16,153 |
Internal Migration Concentrates Growth in Four Destinations
Only Astana, Almaty, Shymkent and Almaty Region recorded positive interregional migration balances in 2025. Together, their net inflows reached 147,825. Turkistan recorded the largest net outflow at 42,649, even though the region also had the country’s largest natural increase.
Largest Interregional Migration Balances in 2025
The four positive balances are shown with the largest selected outflows. Internal migration changes regional distribution but not the national population total.
Data provider — Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan. Values cover registered changes of residence between regions.
| Region or City | Interregional Balance | Direction | Reference Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astana | +87,459 | Net inflow | 2025 |
| Almaty | +33,126 | Net inflow | 2025 |
| Shymkent | +15,130 | Net inflow | 2025 |
| Almaty Region | +12,110 | Net inflow | 2025 |
| Turkistan | −42,649 | Net outflow | 2025 |
| Zhambyl | −21,179 | Net outflow | 2025 |
| Zhetisu | −13,018 | Net outflow | 2025 |
| Kyzylorda | −11,913 | Net outflow | 2025 |
Regional Growth Splits Along Natural Increase and Migration
The regional table combines current population estimates with January–May 2026 growth components, June 2026 urban shares and 2025 fertility rates. The dates remain visible because population, migration and fertility are released on different schedules.
Population Across 20 Administrative Units
Almaty city was the largest administrative unit by population, followed by Turkistan Region. Ulytau had the smallest population.
Data provider — Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan. Population values refer to June 1, 2026.
| Region or City | Population June 1, 2026 | National Share | Population Change Jan–May 2026 | Natural Increase Jan–May 2026 | Net Migration Jan–May 2026 | Urban Share June 1, 2026 | Fertility Rate 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almaty | 2,366,525 | 11.5% | +18,422 | +7,218 | +11,204 | 100.0% | 1.71 |
| Turkistan | 2,146,670 | 10.4% | −2,535 | +13,250 | −15,785 | 25.4% | 3.86 |
| Astana | 1,674,699 | 8.1% | +35,523 | +8,256 | +27,267 | 100.0% | 2.06 |
| Almaty Region | 1,611,588 | 7.8% | +15,056 | +6,712 | +8,344 | 19.3% | 3.09 |
| Shymkent | 1,308,120 | 6.4% | +14,070 | +8,287 | +5,783 | 100.0% | 3.02 |
| Zhambyl | 1,213,556 | 5.9% | −2,100 | +5,108 | −7,208 | 48.4% | 3.12 |
| Karagandy | 1,130,733 | 5.5% | −620 | +775 | −1,395 | 82.7% | 2.00 |
| Aktobe | 957,753 | 4.7% | +1,783 | +3,724 | −1,941 | 76.5% | 2.68 |
| Kyzylorda | 846,351 | 4.1% | +39 | +4,073 | −4,034 | 47.3% | 3.43 |
| Mangystau | 824,267 | 4.0% | +4,443 | +4,999 | −556 | 47.0% | 3.32 |
| Kostanay | 819,999 | 4.0% | −1,474 | −371 | −1,103 | 64.1% | 1.68 |
| Akmola | 792,323 | 3.9% | +2,715 | +676 | +2,039 | 57.9% | 1.99 |
| Pavlodar | 743,640 | 3.6% | −1,603 | +214 | −1,817 | 71.6% | 1.96 |
| Atyrau | 718,250 | 3.5% | +2,179 | +3,656 | −1,477 | 54.8% | 3.05 |
| East Kazakhstan | 716,979 | 3.5% | −2,016 | −574 | −1,442 | 67.8% | 1.97 |
| West Kazakhstan | 694,869 | 3.4% | −780 | +1,325 | −2,105 | 57.9% | 2.46 |
| Zhetisu | 685,517 | 3.3% | −2,184 | +2,046 | −4,230 | 46.0% | 2.88 |
| Abay | 593,583 | 2.9% | −2,137 | +912 | −3,049 | 63.1% | 2.66 |
| North Kazakhstan | 512,388 | 2.5% | −1,744 | −705 | −1,039 | 50.4% | 1.63 |
| Ulytau | 218,169 | 1.1% | −880 | +628 | −1,508 | 79.6% | 2.76 |
Where Population Growth Is Concentrated
- Astana grew by 35,523 during January–May 2026; net migration supplied 27,267 of that increase.
- Almaty Region gained 15,056, with positive natural increase and positive migration.
- Turkistan recorded natural increase of 13,250 but net migration of −15,785, leaving total population change at −2,535.
- Kyzylorda’s natural increase of 4,073 was almost fully offset by net migration of −4,034.
- North Kazakhstan, East Kazakhstan and Kostanay recorded natural decrease as well as negative migration.
The Regional Demographic Divide
Turkistan, Kyzylorda, Mangystau, Zhambyl and Shymkent recorded fertility rates above 3.0 in 2025. Their natural increase remained high, although several also lost residents through migration.
Astana, Almaty, Shymkent and Almaty Region were the only positive interregional migration destinations in 2025. Their current population growth combines migration with positive natural increase.
North Kazakhstan, East Kazakhstan and Kostanay had fertility rates below 2.0 or close to that level, natural decrease and negative net migration in the latest regional growth period.
Karagandy was 82.7% urban in June 2026, while Almaty Region was 19.3% urban and Turkistan 25.4%. A high urban share does not by itself indicate population growth.
Data Sources and Methodology
Population figures are official current estimates built from the latest census base, registered births and deaths, registered migration and administrative-territorial changes. Natural increase equals births minus deaths. Net migration equals registered arrivals minus registered departures. Urban shares are derived from official urban and total population counts for June 1, 2026.
| Data Provider | Release or Data Year | Used For | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan | 1991–2026 dynamic population table | Historical population series | Beginning-of-year current population estimate |
| Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan | June 1, 2026 population release | Current population, urban-rural counts and regional growth | Current population estimate and registered components of change |
| Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan | 2015–2025 natural movement tables | Births, deaths and natural increase | Civil registration counts |
| Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan | 1999–2025 fertility table | National and regional fertility rates | Period total fertility rate |
| Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan | 2000–2025 external migration tables | International arrivals, departures and net migration | Registered permanent or long-term migration |
| Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan | 2025 migration publication | Interregional migration balances | Registered change of residence within Kazakhstan |
Methodological Safety Note: The June 2026 population is a current resident-population estimate, while fertility and full-year migration values refer to 2025. The regional table identifies each period in its column headings. Registered migration does not capture every temporary or unregistered move. Abay, Zhetisu and Ulytau were created in 2022, and the official historical series from 2009 onward has been recalculated for the newer territorial structure. Earlier regional comparisons should use compatible boundaries rather than unadjusted historical totals.