Costa Rica · Demographic Transition
Costa Rica Demographics: Fertility Decline and Population Aging
Costa Rica recorded a total fertility rate of 1.12 children per woman in final 2024 vital statistics, while its population is still projected to grow for roughly two more decades. Smaller birth cohorts, longer survival, migration and the age structure already in place explain why very low fertility and continued population growth can occur at the same time. Under the current national projection, population reaches about 5.44 million in 2044 and then begins to decline.
Primary data: INEC Costa Rica final 2024 vital statistics, national population estimates and projections published in July 2024, and the July 2026 analysis of population aging.
Current Fertility and Population Direction
Fertility Fell Faster Than the 2024 Projection Path
Final vital statistics place Costa Rica’s total fertility rate at 1.12 children per woman in 2024, down from 1.78 in 2014. INEC also reports that fertility has remained below 1.5 children per woman since 2020. The 2024 level is far below the broad replacement-level benchmark of about 2.1.
The timing matters because the national population projection published in July 2024 used a fertility value of 1.23 for 2024 and placed the low point of its fertility path at about 1.14 in 2031. Final 2024 vital statistics, released later, recorded 1.12. The observed value had therefore already moved below both the projection’s 2024 level and its modeled minimum.
| Series | Reference Year | Total Fertility Rate | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final vital statistics | 2014 | 1.78 | Final observed rate |
| National population projection | 2024 | 1.23 | Projection path |
| Final vital statistics | 2024 | 1.12 | Final observed rate |
| National population projection | 2031 | 1.14 | Projected minimum |
| Broad replacement benchmark | — | About 2.1 | Reference benchmark |
Why the New Fertility Result Changes the Projection Context
- The July 2024 projection used a total fertility rate of 1.23 for 2024.
- Final 2024 vital statistics later measured fertility at 1.12.
- The projection had placed its fertility minimum at about 1.14 in 2031, slightly above the final rate already recorded in 2024.
- The fertility difference does not by itself recalculate the population peak; a new projection requires updated fertility, mortality and migration assumptions together.
Registered Births Fell From 70,922 to 45,821
The fertility decline is visible in annual birth counts as well as in the total fertility rate. Costa Rica registered 70,922 births in 2010, compared with 50,205 in 2023 and 45,821 in final 2024 data. The 2024 count is about 35.4% below the 2010 level. Over the same period, the crude birth rate fell from 15.6 to 8.9 births per 1,000 population.
| Year | Registered Births | Crude Birth Rate per 1,000 |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 70,922 | 15.6 |
| 2011 | 73,459 | 16.0 |
| 2012 | 73,326 | 15.8 |
| 2013 | 70,550 | 15.0 |
| 2014 | 71,793 | 15.0 |
| 2015 | 71,819 | 14.9 |
| 2016 | 70,004 | 14.3 |
| 2017 | 68,811 | 13.9 |
| 2018 | 68,449 | 13.7 |
| 2019 | 64,274 | 12.8 |
| 2020 | 58,156 | 11.5 |
| 2021 | 54,288 | 10.7 |
| 2022 | 53,435 | 10.5 |
| 2023 | 50,205 | 9.8 |
| 2024 | 45,821 | 8.9 |
Source: INEC Costa Rica Vital Statistics. The 2010–2023 series is from the 2023 annual release; the 2024 row uses the final 2024 birth-register total and the published 2024 crude birth rate. The 35.4% change is calculated from the published 2010 and 2024 birth counts.
The Decline in Births Accelerated After 2018
The annual series shows that the decline was not limited to a single year. Births remained near 70,000 through much of the 2010s, fell below 60,000 in 2020 and moved below 50,000 in 2024.
Registered Births in Costa Rica, 2010–2024
Annual births occurring and registered in the national vital statistics system
Source: INEC Costa Rica Vital Statistics, 2010–2024. The 2024 value is final.
The Population Pyramid Is Already Narrowing at the Base
INEC’s reconstructed population base for 30 June 2022 shows the effect of lower recent fertility directly in the youngest cohorts. The estimated population aged 0–4 was 295,847, compared with 370,903 at ages 5–9 and 381,344 at ages 10–14. The youngest five-year group was therefore markedly smaller before the final 2024 fertility decline was recorded.
| Age Group | Male | Female | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 150,089 | 145,758 | 295,847 |
| 5–9 | 189,005 | 181,898 | 370,903 |
| 10–14 | 194,822 | 186,522 | 381,344 |
| 15–19 | 193,035 | 186,530 | 379,566 |
| 20–24 | 204,702 | 198,285 | 402,987 |
| 25–29 | 218,436 | 212,277 | 430,713 |
| 30–34 | 221,784 | 216,309 | 438,093 |
| 35–39 | 211,652 | 210,386 | 422,038 |
| 40–44 | 180,383 | 182,019 | 362,403 |
| 45–49 | 148,283 | 149,849 | 298,133 |
| 50–54 | 139,821 | 143,065 | 282,885 |
| 55–59 | 137,583 | 141,643 | 279,225 |
| 60–64 | 117,996 | 122,936 | 240,932 |
| 65–69 | 90,918 | 96,670 | 187,588 |
| 70–74 | 62,891 | 69,211 | 132,102 |
| 75–79 | 42,238 | 47,944 | 90,181 |
| 80–84 | 25,963 | 31,253 | 57,215 |
| 85–89 | 13,642 | 18,861 | 32,503 |
| 90–94 | 5,964 | 9,201 | 15,165 |
| 95–99 | 1,720 | 2,834 | 4,554 |
| 100+ | 185 | 344 | 529 |
Source: INEC Costa Rica, estimated base population by age and sex at 30 June 2022. Total estimated resident population: 5,104,907.
Costa Rica Population Pyramid, 2022 Estimated Base
Estimated resident population by five-year age group and sex
Source: INEC Costa Rica, national population estimates and projections, July 2024. Base population refers to 30 June 2022.
Where the Age Structure Narrows
- The 0–4 population was 295,847 in the 2022 base estimate.
- The 5–9 group was 370,903 and the 10–14 group was 381,344.
- INEC’s projection methodology notes that the fertility decline had been stronger than earlier projections reproduced, which contributed to the narrower youngest groups in the revised base population.
Aging Is Advancing From Both Ends of the Age Structure
Low fertility reduces the number entering the youngest ages while longer survival expands older cohorts. INEC’s 2026 aging analysis places the 2024 share aged 65 and over at 10.5% among men and 11.8% among women. By 2050, the corresponding projected shares are 23.2% and 26.5%.
| Indicator | Unit | 2000 | 2024 | 2050 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men aged 65+ | Percent of male population | 5.1% | 10.5% | 23.2% |
| Women aged 65+ | Percent of female population | 5.8% | 11.8% | 26.5% |
| Male life expectancy at birth | Years | 75.2 | 78.5 | 81.4 |
| Female life expectancy at birth | Years | 80.0 | 83.4 | 87.2 |
Source: INEC Costa Rica, Aging Process in Costa Rica, July 2026. The 2050 values are projections derived from the national population projection series.
The dependency balance is also changing. The national projection places the old-age dependency ratio at 16.0 people aged 65 and over for every 100 people aged 15–64 in 2024. The ratio reaches 39.2 per 100 by 2050.
The comparison with young children makes the shift more visible. Within the national projection series, the population aged 65 and over surpassed the population under age five in 2016. It was about twice the under-five population in 2024 and is projected to be about three times as large in 2029.
Migration Is Demographically Relevant, but Stock and Flow Measures Differ
INEC estimated 474,192 foreign residents in the 2022 population base, equal to 9.3% of the estimated resident population. The same reconstruction separately estimated 93,807 Costa Rican emigrants.
Neither figure is an annual migration flow. The foreign-population estimate is a resident stock, while the emigrant estimate is a stock of Costa Ricans estimated to be living abroad. They cannot be subtracted and presented as an annual net migration value.
| Measure | Total | Men | Women | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign population in the 2022 resident base | 474,192 | 232,865 | 241,327 | Estimated resident stock |
| Costa Rican emigrant population | 93,807 | 45,460 | 48,347 | Estimated emigrant stock |
Source: INEC Costa Rica, reconstruction of the population base at 30 June 2022. The foreign population represented 9.3% of the estimated resident population.
Measure distinction: foreign population is not the same measure as immigration, and an emigrant stock is not the same measure as annual emigration. Annual population change requires births, deaths, immigration and emigration measured over the same period.
Population Still Rises Before the Projection Turns Down After 2044
A fertility rate of 1.12 does not produce immediate population decline. Total fertility measures current reproductive levels, while total population also reflects the sizes of cohorts already alive, survival into older ages and migration. These effects allow population growth to continue for a period after fertility falls below replacement level.
Population accounting: annual population change is determined by births minus deaths, plus immigration minus emigration. Age structure affects how quickly a low fertility rate translates into a falling total population.
In INEC’s July 2024 projection, Costa Rica rises from 5,191,823 people in 2025 to a maximum of 5,439,639 in 2044. The projected total slips to 5,439,395 in 2045 and continues downward thereafter, reaching 3,422,780 by 2100.
| Year | Projected Population |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 5,135,912 |
| 2024 | 5,164,860 |
| 2025 | 5,191,823 |
| 2030 | 5,303,115 |
| 2040 | 5,423,898 |
| 2044 | 5,439,639 |
| 2045 | 5,439,395 |
| 2050 | 5,405,872 |
| 2060 | 5,197,035 |
| 2070 | 4,873,540 |
| 2080 | 4,452,580 |
| 2090 | 3,933,503 |
| 2100 | 3,422,780 |
Source: INEC Costa Rica, National Population Estimates and Projections 1950–2100, July 2024. The table shows selected years from the official annual projection series.
The 2044 Peak Separates Growth From Long-Range Decline
Projected Population of Costa Rica, Selected Years 2023–2100
National projection with the 2044 maximum included as a separate point
Source: INEC Costa Rica, National Population Estimates and Projections 1950–2100, July 2024.
Population projections are scenario-based estimates, not guaranteed predictions. The final 2024 fertility rate of 1.12 does not automatically replace the 2044 peak with a new date. It does show that one component of the July 2024 projection path was already above the subsequently observed fertility level. A later projection revision using newer fertility, mortality and migration evidence may produce a different peak year or population level.
Data Sources and Methodology
The page gives priority to INEC Costa Rica because the topic depends on national vital registration, the reconstructed 2022 resident population base and the country’s official projection model. Observed vital statistics, reconstructed population estimates and future projections are kept as separate measure types. The 2024 fertility comparison uses two releases intentionally: the July 2024 projection and the final 2024 vital-statistics result published after the reference year was complete.
| Source | Release or Data Year | Used for | Measure Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| INEC Costa Rica, Final Demographic Indicators 2024 | 2024 data · released November 2025 | Final total fertility rate, 2014–2024 fertility comparison | Final vital-statistics rate |
| INEC Costa Rica, Vital Statistics 2023 and final 2024 birth register | 2010–2024 | Annual registered births and crude birth rate | Observed registered vital events and rates |
| INEC Costa Rica, National Population Estimates and Projections 1950–2100 | July 2024 | 2022 base population, age-sex structure, foreign and emigrant population estimates, fertility projection, dependency ratio and 2023–2100 population projection | Reconstructed estimate and projection |
| INEC Costa Rica, Aging Process in Costa Rica | July 2026 | Population aged 65+ by sex and life expectancy comparisons for 2000, 2024 and 2050 | Historical estimate, current projection-series value and future projection |
The 35.4% decline in births between 2010 and 2024 is a derived calculation from published INEC birth counts. No missing years were interpolated. The 2022 age-sex values refer to the estimated resident population at 30 June 2022 and should not be read as the direct count from the 2022 census. Migration values shown here are population stocks rather than annual migration flows.
Methodological Safety Note: Final 2024 fertility and birth statistics are observed registered-event measures, while the 2024 and later population totals, age shares and dependency ratios used from the national projection are model-based values. The July 2024 projection was produced before final 2024 fertility statistics became available. Its 2044 population peak therefore describes the published projection scenario and should not be treated as a fixed future outcome. The 2022 foreign-population and Costa Rican emigrant figures are estimated stocks used in reconstructing the resident population base; they do not measure annual immigration, annual emigration or net migration.