Asia · Eastern Asia
China Demographics
China recorded a fourth consecutive annual population decline in 2025, while the shares of older residents and urban residents continued to rise.
Headline national figures use the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Internationally comparable indicators and projection scenarios use UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024.
Last updated: July 12, 2026
Core Demographic Indicators
Detailed Demographic Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| National population | 1,404,890,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Annual population change | −3,390,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Year-over-year population change | −0.24% | 2025 | Calculated from NBS year-end totals |
| Male population | 716,850,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Female population | 688,040,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Male share | 51.03% | 2025 | Calculated from NBS counts |
| Female share | 48.97% | 2025 | Calculated from NBS counts |
| Sex ratio | 104.19 males per 100 females | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Population aged 0–15 | 230,150,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Share aged 0–15 | 16.4% | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Population aged 16–59 | 851,360,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Share aged 16–59 | 60.6% | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Population aged 60+ | 323,380,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Share aged 60+ | 23.0% | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Population aged 65+ | 223,650,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Share aged 65+ | 15.9% | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Urban population | 953,800,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Urban population share | 67.89% | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Rural population | 451,090,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Live births | 7,920,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Deaths | 11,310,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Crude birth rate | 5.63 per 1,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Crude death rate | 8.04 per 1,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Natural growth rate | −2.41 per 1,000 | 2025 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| UN mid-year population | 1,422,584,933 | 2023 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Share of world population | 17.58% | 2023 | Calculated from UN WPP China and world totals |
| Global population rank | 2 | 2023 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Population density | 148 people per km² | 2023 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024, processed by Our World in Data |
| Median age | 39.1 years | 2023 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.0 births per woman | 2023 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Life expectancy at birth | 78.0 years | 2023 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Net migration | −567,700 | 2023 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Age dependency ratio | 44.7 per 100 working-age people | 2023 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Under-five mortality | 5.7 per 1,000 live births | 2024 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
Table analysis
- The official year-end population fell to 1.40489 billion in 2025.
- Deaths exceeded births by 3.39 million during 2025.
- The population aged 65 or older reached 223.65 million, equal to 15.9% of the national total.
- Urban permanent residents outnumbered rural residents by 502.71 million.
- The NBS year-end total and UN mid-year estimate should not be treated as interchangeable because their dates and statistical methods differ.
Recent Population Direction
China Year-End Population, 2021–2025
National population reported at the end of each calendar year
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China annual statistical communiqués. Values use the NBS national year-end population definition.
| Year | Population | Annual change | Annual change % | Measure | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,412,600,000 | +480,000 | +0.03% | Year-end national population | NBS 2021 communiqué |
| 2022 | 1,411,750,000 | −850,000 | −0.06% | Year-end national population | NBS 2022 communiqué |
| 2023 | 1,409,670,000 | −2,080,000 | −0.15% | Year-end national population | NBS 2023 communiqué |
| 2024 | 1,408,280,000 | −1,390,000 | −0.10% | Year-end national population | NBS 2024 communiqué |
| 2025 | 1,404,890,000 | −3,390,000 | −0.24% | Year-end national population | NBS 2025 communiqué |
Trend analysis
- The year-end total rose by 480,000 in 2021 and declined in every year from 2022 through 2025.
- The 2025 decline of 3.39 million was larger than the declines reported for 2022, 2023 and 2024.
- The population moved from 1.41260 billion in 2021 to 1.40489 billion in 2025, a net reduction of 7.71 million.
- Percentage changes are calculated from consecutive NBS year-end totals and are rounded to two decimal places.
Births, Deaths and Natural Change
Annual Births and Deaths, 2021–2025
Reported annual event counts in millions
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China annual statistical communiqués.
| Year | Births | Deaths | Natural change | Birth rate | Death rate | Natural growth rate | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 10,620,000 | 10,140,000 | +480,000 | 7.52 per 1,000 | 7.18 per 1,000 | +0.34 per 1,000 | NBS 2021 communiqué |
| 2022 | 9,560,000 | 10,410,000 | −850,000 | 6.77 per 1,000 | 7.37 per 1,000 | −0.60 per 1,000 | NBS 2022 communiqué |
| 2023 | 9,020,000 | 11,100,000 | −2,080,000 | 6.39 per 1,000 | 7.87 per 1,000 | −1.48 per 1,000 | NBS 2023 communiqué |
| 2024 | 9,540,000 | 10,930,000 | −1,390,000 | 6.77 per 1,000 | 7.76 per 1,000 | −0.99 per 1,000 | NBS 2024 communiqué |
| 2025 | 7,920,000 | 11,310,000 | −3,390,000 | 5.63 per 1,000 | 8.04 per 1,000 | −2.41 per 1,000 | NBS 2025 communiqué |
Data analysis
- Births exceeded deaths by 480,000 in 2021.
- Deaths exceeded births in every year from 2022 through 2025.
- Births rose from 9.02 million in 2023 to 9.54 million in 2024, then fell to 7.92 million in 2025.
- The 2025 crude birth rate was 5.63 per 1,000, compared with a crude death rate of 8.04 per 1,000.
- Natural change describes births minus deaths. It is not the same measure as international net migration.
Current Age Structure
Broad Age Structure in 2025
Official NBS age bands for the year-end national population
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2025 statistical communiqué. The 65+ population is contained within the 60+ group and is not a separate doughnut segment.
| Age group | Population | Share | Year | Coverage note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | 230,150,000 | 16.4% | 2025 | Under age 16 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| 16–59 | 851,360,000 | 60.6% | 2025 | Age 16 to under 60 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| 60+ | 323,380,000 | 23.0% | 2025 | Includes the 65+ population | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| 65+ | 223,650,000 | 15.9% | 2025 | Subset of the 60+ group | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
Age structure analysis
- The 16–59 population remained the largest official age band at 851.36 million.
- People aged 60 or older numbered 323.38 million, compared with 230.15 million people aged 0–15.
- The 60+ population exceeded the 0–15 population by 93.23 million.
- The 65+ population represented 15.9% of the national year-end total.
- The NBS bands differ from the internationally common 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ classification.
Older Population Trend
Population Aged 65 or Older, 2021–2025
Year-end population count and share reported by the NBS
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China annual statistical communiqués.
| Year | Population aged 65+ | Share aged 65+ | Annual count change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 200,560,000 | 14.2% | Data not available | NBS 2021 communiqué |
| 2022 | 209,780,000 | 14.9% | +9,220,000 | NBS 2022 communiqué |
| 2023 | 216,760,000 | 15.4% | +6,980,000 | NBS 2023 communiqué |
| 2024 | 220,230,000 | 15.6% | +3,470,000 | NBS 2024 communiqué |
| 2025 | 223,650,000 | 15.9% | +3,420,000 | NBS 2025 communiqué |
Trend analysis
- The 65+ population increased from 200.56 million in 2021 to 223.65 million in 2025.
- The four-year increase was 23.09 million.
- The 65+ share rose by 1.7 percentage points, from 14.2% to 15.9%.
- The older population count rose while the total national population declined after 2021.
Historical Age Structure
Median Age in Census and Sample-Survey Years
Historical NBS age-structure series from 1953 to 2015
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China training material based on population censuses and the 2015 sample survey. The 2023 UN median age is shown elsewhere and is not mixed into this chart.
| Year | Aged 0–14 | Aged 15–64 | Aged 65+ | Youth dependency | Older dependency | Total dependency | Older-to-youth ratio | Median age | Data type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1953 | 36.28% | 59.31% | 4.41% | 61.17 | 7.44 | 68.61 | 12.16 | 22.7 years | Population census |
| 1964 | 40.70% | 55.74% | 3.56% | 73.02 | 6.93 | 79.41 | 8.76 | 20.2 years | Population census |
| 1982 | 33.59% | 61.50% | 4.91% | 54.62 | 7.97 | 62.60 | 14.62 | 22.9 years | Population census |
| 1990 | 27.70% | 66.72% | 5.58% | 41.52 | 8.37 | 49.89 | 20.14 | 25.3 years | Population census |
| 2000 | 22.89% | 70.15% | 6.96% | 32.63 | 9.92 | 42.55 | 30.41 | 30.8 years | Population census |
| 2010 | 16.60% | 74.53% | 8.87% | 23.67 | 12.65 | 34.17 | 53.43 | 34.9 years | Population census |
| 2015 | 16.52% | 73.01% | 10.47% | 22.63 | 14.34 | 36.97 | 63.38 | 37.8 years | Population sample survey |
Historical analysis
- The child share reached 40.70% in 1964 and fell to 16.52% by 2015.
- The 65+ share rose from 3.56% in 1964 to 10.47% in 2015.
- The median age increased from 20.2 years in 1964 to 37.8 years in 2015.
- The older-dependency component rose after 1964 while the youth-dependency component fell.
- The historical table uses 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ bands and should not be directly merged with the current NBS 0–15 and 16–59 bands.
Male and Female Population
Male and Female Population, 2021–2025
Year-end counts reported in annual NBS communiqués
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Sex ratios for 2021–2024 are calculated from the published male and female totals; the 2025 ratio is also reported directly by the NBS.
| Year | Male | Female | Total | Male share | Female share | Sex ratio | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 723,110,000 | 689,490,000 | 1,412,600,000 | 51.19% | 48.81% | 104.88 | NBS 2021 communiqué |
| 2022 | 722,060,000 | 689,690,000 | 1,411,750,000 | 51.15% | 48.85% | 104.69 | NBS 2022 communiqué |
| 2023 | 720,320,000 | 689,350,000 | 1,409,670,000 | 51.10% | 48.90% | 104.49 | NBS 2023 communiqué |
| 2024 | 719,090,000 | 689,190,000 | 1,408,280,000 | 51.06% | 48.94% | 104.34 | NBS 2024 communiqué |
| 2025 | 716,850,000 | 688,040,000 | 1,404,890,000 | 51.03% | 48.97% | 104.19 | NBS 2025 communiqué |
Age-sex analysis
- The male population declined from 723.11 million in 2021 to 716.85 million in 2025.
- The female population moved from 689.49 million to 688.04 million over the same period.
- The national sex ratio narrowed from 104.88 to 104.19 males per 100 females.
- The male share declined from 51.19% to 51.03%.
- A complete matched five-year age-by-sex table was not used for this release, so no population pyramid is presented.
Age-Sex Data Availability: A full population pyramid requires complete male and female counts for every matching age group. No missing age-sex values have been estimated. A detailed population pyramid will be added when a complete current table is incorporated.
Urbanization
Urban Population Share, 2021–2025
Share of permanent residents classified as urban by the NBS
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Urban classification follows the national statistical definition of urban permanent residents.
| Year | Urban population | Rural population | Urban share | Urban annual change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 914,250,000 | 498,350,000 | 64.72% | Data not available | NBS 2021 communiqué |
| 2022 | 920,710,000 | 491,040,000 | 65.22% | +6,460,000 | NBS 2022 communiqué |
| 2023 | 932,670,000 | 477,000,000 | 66.2% | +11,960,000 | NBS 2023 communiqué |
| 2024 | 943,500,000 | 464,780,000 | 67.0% | +10,830,000 | NBS 2024 communiqué |
| 2025 | 953,800,000 | 451,090,000 | 67.89% | +10,300,000 | NBS 2025 communiqué |
Trend analysis
- The urban population increased by 39.55 million between 2021 and 2025.
- The rural population declined by 47.26 million over the same period.
- The urban share rose from 64.72% to 67.89%, an increase of 3.17 percentage points.
- Urban and rural classifications follow the NBS permanent-resident definition rather than citizenship or household-registration status alone.
Internal Population Mobility
| Measure | Population | Share of census total | Reference year | Definition note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Living outside household-registration area | 492,762,506 | 34.9% | 2020 | Residence differed from household-registration location | Seventh National Population Census |
| Floating population | 375,816,759 | 26.6% | 2020 | NBS census definition of the floating population | Seventh National Population Census |
| Interprovincial floating population | 124,837,153 | 8.84% | 2020 | Current residence in a different province-level area | Seventh National Population Census |
| Intraprovincial floating population | 250,979,606 | 17.78% | 2020 | Movement within the same province-level area | Seventh National Population Census |
| Same-city registration separation | 116,945,747 | 8.28% | 2020 | Residence and registration differed within the same city | Seventh National Population Census |
Table analysis
- The 2020 census counted 375.82 million people within the official floating-population category.
- About two-thirds of that floating population moved within the same province-level area.
- Interprovincial floating residents numbered 124.84 million.
- Internal floating-population measures are separate from international immigration, emigration and net migration.
- Shares are calculated using the NBS census total and are rounded.
Fertility and Replacement Benchmark
Total Fertility Rate Compared With 2.1
Births per woman under the UN period-fertility measure
Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 for China, 2023. The 2.1 value is a broad replacement-level benchmark, not a country-specific forecast threshold.
Chart analysis
- The UN estimate for 2023 was 1.0 birth per woman.
- The estimate was 1.1 births per woman below the broad 2.1 benchmark.
- Total fertility rate is a period measure derived from age-specific fertility rates, not the final number of children born to an actual cohort of women.
Internationally Comparable Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Year | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-year population | 1,422,584,933 | 2023 | People on July 1 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Annual population growth | −0.18% | 2023 | Annual percent change | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Median age | 39.1 | 2023 | Years | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Total fertility rate | 1.0 | 2023 | Births per woman | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Life expectancy at birth | 78.0 | 2023 | Years | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Net migration | −567,700 | 2023 | People | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Age dependency ratio | 44.7 | 2023 | Dependants per 100 people aged 15–64 | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Population density | 148 | 2023 | People per km² | UN DESA WPP 2024, processed by Our World in Data |
| Under-five mortality | 5.7 | 2024 | Deaths per 1,000 live births | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
Method note
- The UN series is designed for comparison across countries and uses July 1 population estimates.
- The NBS national series reports year-end permanent-resident totals under its own coverage rules.
- The difference between the 2023 NBS and UN totals does not represent a population change between two dates.
- UN model estimates may revise earlier years when a new World Population Prospects edition is released.
Population Projection Scenarios
UN Population Scenarios for 2100
Low, medium and high variants from World Population Prospects 2024
Source: UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024. Projection variants use different future fertility assumptions and are not guaranteed outcomes.
| Scenario | Projection year | Projected population | Change from 2023 UN estimate | Projection type | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low variant | 2100 | 405,575,165 | −1,017,009,768 | UN deterministic variant | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| Medium variant | 2100 | 633,368,113 | −789,216,820 | UN medium variant | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
| High variant | 2100 | 954,158,191 | −468,426,742 | UN deterministic variant | UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
Projection analysis
- All three listed variants place the 2100 population below the UN 2023 estimate.
- The medium variant reaches 633.37 million in 2100.
- The difference between the low and high variants is about 548.58 million people.
- The variants diverge because they apply different assumptions, especially for future fertility.
- Observed population data and projection values are kept in separate tables and charts.
Demographic Measure Definitions
| Indicator | Definition | Unit | Interpretation note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year-end population | Population reported at the end of the calendar year under the NBS national coverage definition. | People | Not directly equivalent to a July 1 UN estimate. |
| Mid-year population | Estimated population on July 1 of the stated year. | People | Used by UN WPP for international comparisons. |
| Natural change | Live births minus deaths during the calendar year. | People | Does not include migration or statistical revisions. |
| Natural growth rate | Natural change relative to the population, expressed per 1,000 people. | Per 1,000 | May be negative when deaths exceed births. |
| Total fertility rate | Average number of births a woman would have if current age-specific fertility rates applied throughout her reproductive years. | Births per woman | A period indicator rather than completed family size. |
| Life expectancy at birth | Expected years of life under the mortality rates observed or estimated for the stated period. | Years | It is not the predicted lifespan of every newborn. |
| Net migration | Immigration minus emigration during the stated period. | People | Separate from internal floating-population measures. |
| Sex ratio | Number of males per 100 females. | Males per 100 females | The total-population ratio differs from the sex ratio at birth. |
| Urban population share | Share of permanent residents classified as urban under the national statistical definition. | Percent | Urban definitions differ between countries and datasets. |
| Age dependency ratio | Population outside the selected working-age band divided by the working-age population. | Per 100 working-age people | Results depend on whether the age boundary is 60, 65 or another value. |
| Population projection | Future population produced from assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. | People | A scenario-based estimate rather than a guaranteed prediction. |
Demographic Overview
The official year-end population declined in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, reaching 1.40489 billion.
Deaths exceeded births by 3.39 million in 2025, compared with a positive natural balance of 480,000 in 2021.
The 60+ population reached 323.38 million, while the 65+ population reached 223.65 million.
The total sex ratio narrowed to 104.19 males per 100 females in 2025.
Urban permanent residents accounted for 67.89% of the population at the end of 2025.
The UN 2100 variants range from about 405.6 million to 954.2 million, with a medium value of 633.4 million.
Data Sources and Methodology
National population, age composition, sex composition, urbanization, births and deaths use official releases from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 supplies internationally comparable mid-year estimates, fertility, life expectancy, net migration, dependency, mortality and projection values.
The data retain the year, reference date and population definition published by each source. Missing values are not interpolated. Calculated percentages, ratios and annual changes use the visible source values and are rounded for display.
| Source | Year or release | Used for | Coverage note |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Bureau of Statistics of China | 2021–2025 annual statistical communiqués | Year-end population, births, deaths, age bands, sex totals, urban and rural population | Mainland national population definition stated in each communiqué |
| Seventh National Population Census | Reference time: November 1, 2020 | Internal mobility and floating-population measures | Census definitions differ from annual estimates and international migration measures |
| National Bureau of Statistics age-structure training material | Census and sample-survey data, 1953–2015 | Historical age shares, dependency ratios and median age | Historical table uses 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ bands |
| UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 | 2024 revision | 2023 mid-year population, growth, median age, fertility, life expectancy, net migration, dependency and 2100 projections | Internationally comparable estimates and scenario-based projections |
| Our World in Data processing of UN WPP | Dataset retrieved for current profile | Population-density presentation and accessible UN indicator metadata | Underlying demographic source is UN DESA World Population Prospects 2024 |
Data Quality and Coverage
| Dataset | Reference period | Population measure | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBS annual population communiqué | Calendar-year end | National permanent-resident total | Age groups are broader than a five-year population-pyramid table |
| Seventh National Population Census | November 1, 2020 | Census count | Reference date and enumeration rules differ from year-end estimates |
| Historical NBS age series | Selected census and survey years | Census or sample-survey age distribution | Not an annual time series |
| UN WPP estimates | July 1 | Model-based mid-year estimate | May differ from the national year-end series |
| UN WPP projection variants | Future years through 2100 | Scenario-based projection | Results depend on future fertility, mortality and migration assumptions |
| Detailed current age-sex distribution | Current release | Five-year male and female age groups | Not incorporated; no pyramid has been generated |
Methodological Safety Note
Methodological Safety Note: The NBS national population is a year-end figure, while UN WPP population is a July 1 estimate. Census counts, annual estimates and model-based estimates can differ without indicating an error. Projection values are scenarios rather than observed data. Age-band definitions vary across tables: current NBS releases use 0–15 and 16–59, while historical and international tables often use 0–14 and 15–64. Urban status follows the source definition. Natural change is births minus deaths and is separate from net migration. Sex ratio means males per 100 females. Displayed percentages and derived changes may not reproduce totals exactly because source values are rounded.
China Demographic Data Questions
What population does the 2025 NBS total cover?
The NBS total covers the population of China’s 31 mainland provincial-level areas and servicemen under the national statistical definition. It excludes Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and foreigners living in the mainland jurisdictions.
Why is the UN population higher than the NBS year-end figure?
The figures use different reference dates and estimation methods. The UN value is a modeled July 1 estimate, while the NBS value is an official national year-end total.
When did China’s recent population decline begin?
The NBS year-end series recorded a decline in 2022, followed by further declines in 2023, 2024 and 2025.
How many people in China were aged 65 or older in 2025?
The NBS reported 223.65 million people aged 65 or older, equal to 15.9% of the year-end population.
Is the UN 2100 population value a prediction?
No. It is a scenario-based projection produced from assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. Low, medium and high variants produce different results.
Why is there no current population pyramid?
A reliable pyramid requires a complete matched male and female population table for detailed age groups. No missing age-sex values were estimated for this profile.